ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[linttrap]

Dorian is growing again! satellite presence is starting to look classic. This is hands-down the most impressive storm I've ever watched. It simply will not die...

This is relatively common on the Eastern seaboard especially when the storms are working with such warm SSTs near the coast.

Usually the storms that come through our area (Va. Beach) are either starting to fall apart from dry air entrainment or making an extratropical transition. It's actually extremely rare for us to encounter a tropical system that continues to strengthen on approach.

I'm also from Va. Beach and this storm is much stronger than most we get. It's giving me the heebie jeebies, but the people out and about today that I have talked to are very nonchalant about it, because of the history of so many hurricanes that turned into no-big-deal.

[Nimbus]

1000's without power in Charleston inland as far as Westborough.
Hopefully they have a frozen jug of water in the freezer, could be a day or two.
There is a low population national forest Just north of Charleston but the major cities further north aren't going to fare much better than Charleston maybe worse.

[wxman57]

Looks like winds may be up to 90 kts now. Morning plane couldn't find over 85 kts.

[xironman]

Looks like Oak Island may get the worst of it with surge being pushed into the bend.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Very impressive tornado outbreak with Dorian's bands. Some rather sizable and damaging tornadoes and hefty supercells instead of the transient stringbeans with minor touchdowns that are so often the case with landfalling systems.

I had no idea hurricanes could make supercells. How does this even happen?

[supercane4867]

Satellite presentation has been holding steady or improving

[MBismyPlayground]

Are there any current models or info on Dorian? I have told so many about this site yet now I hear crickets since it left Florida.
And can anyone tell me why my porch is now filled with slugs??!! only since we began getting wind and rain. Yuck...thanks to anyone who enlightens me.

Slugs wanna survive as well. Well, not that you'd like them to on your front porch however lol. Just a foretelling sign being displayed by the animal kingdom that increasingly wet conditions are coming. Are you near any sort of flood zone?

Nope...just a ton of rain. Beach is 3miles and icw about a mile maybe.

[Nimbus]

Looks like Oak Island may get the worst of it with surge being pushed into the bend.

Wilmington NC could use a couple wobbles east the eyewall is too close..

[RL3AO]

Very impressive tornado outbreak with Dorian's bands. Some rather sizable and damaging tornadoes and hefty supercells instead of the transient stringbeans with minor touchdowns that are so often the case with landfalling systems.

I had no idea hurricanes could make supercells. How does this even happen?

Low level wind shear and instability. The same way supercells develop in the plains.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Very impressive tornado outbreak with Dorian's bands. Some rather sizable and damaging tornadoes and hefty supercells instead of the transient stringbeans with minor touchdowns that are so often the case with landfalling systems.

I had no idea hurricanes could make supercells. How does this even happen?

Low level wind shear and instability. The same way supercells develop in the plains.

So is low level wind shear not as destructive to hurricanes as shear higher up? Or is this shear too localized to damage it much?

[HDGator]

Looks like winds may be up to 90 kts now. Morning plane couldn't find over 85 kts.

Buoy 41004 is recording 85kt gusts on the backside of the storm at both 2:10pm and 2:20pm. It didn't record anything higher than 76kt in the front side of the storm.
Wind speed seems to be back up.

[RL3AO]

So is low level wind shear not as destructive to hurricanes as shear higher up? Or is this shear too localized to damage it much?

A lot of the shear is in the lowest couple km and it's mostly caused by friction from land. It causes the winds to "back" near the surface resulting in a veering wind profile. It's the main reason why you get tornadoes with landfalling hurricanes.

[supercane4867]

Darwin Award for stupidity

 https://twitter.com/ActiveWxCams/status/1169655086718640128

[HDGator]

3pm NHC update out. Looks like they noticed the same buoy.

000
WTNT65 KNHC 051855
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

NOAA buoy 41004 recently measured sustained winds of 85 mph (137
km/h) and a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) in the southern eyewall of
Dorian.

The Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 88 mph (142 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 78.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[baitism]

Darwin Award for stupidity

Probably someone trying to scam an insurance company.

[invest man]

Satellite presentation has been holding steady or improving

https://i.imgur.com/5NnxSGW.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Vx4UEaX.jpg

Looks to be on the western wall of the Gulf Stream. Could be there until at least past Wilmington.

[Vdogg]

This is relatively common on the Eastern seaboard especially when the storms are working with such warm SSTs near the coast.

Usually the storms that come through our area (Va. Beach) are either starting to fall apart from dry air entrainment or making an extratropical transition. It's actually extremely rare for us to encounter a tropical system that continues to strengthen on approach.

I'm also from Va. Beach and this storm is much stronger than most we get. It's giving me the heebie jeebies, but the people out and about today that I have talked to are very nonchalant about it, because of the history of so many hurricanes that turned into no-big-deal.

It's because they stopped the hurricane warning at the border. I hate it when they do that, it's not like the winds magically die down right at the state line. The official weather forecast calls for us to have a very high and tropical storm with over hurricane-force gusts, but everyone thinks we're just in store for some run-of-the-mill tropical storm. They're going to be unprepared. I'm usually not one to criticize NHC but I think they really make a mistake when they do that because people don't take it seriously.

[kevin]

Is it possible that Dorian is going for an attempt to get a major hurricane status for a 3rd time or will it weaken from now on? I can't recall another hurricane with such extreme 'survival skills' as Dorian.

[invest man]

Is it possible that Dorian is going for an attempt to get a major hurricane status for a 3rd time or will it weaken from now on? I can't recall another hurricane with such extreme 'survival skills' as Dorian.

Appears to be trying to mix out some dry air but wouldn’t think it could get back to cat 3. However if it can retap some warmer water in the next 12 hrs it could boast just enough. But again don’t think so.

[psyclone]

Usually the storms that come through our area (Va. Beach) are either starting to fall apart from dry air entrainment or making an extratropical transition. It's actually extremely rare for us to encounter a tropical system that continues to strengthen on approach.

I'm also from Va. Beach and this storm is much stronger than most we get. It's giving me the heebie jeebies, but the people out and about today that I have talked to are very nonchalant about it, because of the history of so many hurricanes that turned into no-big-deal.

It's because they stopped the hurricane warning at the border. I hate it when they do that, it's not like the winds magically die down right at the state line. The official weather forecast calls for us to have a very high and tropical storm with over hurricane-force gusts, but everyone thinks we're just in store for some run-of-the-mill tropical storm. They're going to be unprepared. I'm usually not one to criticize NHC but I think they really make a mistake when they do that because people don't take it seriously.

they've got to draw the line somewhere. With the hurricane expected to move near Cape Hatteras on the northeasterly heading it make sense that the threat of hurricane force winds would drastically decline as one heads north of the cape (owing to both a simultaneous advantageous shape of the coast (north northwestward) and a northeastward moving hurricane). Not surprisingly, the threat of hurricane force winds goes from close to 70% at Hatteras to less than 10% at the state line. This looks like an appropriate call to me provided the hurricane behaves as expected..