ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

Can someone explain to me what physical processes are going on with these efficient looking rain bands that extend perpendicular to the wind field? They even have a noticeable velocity signature

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485132024949112855/619041658029342720/Screenshot_20190905-002919.png

They also show much higher KDP than surrounding precipitation.

Isn't that normally associated with tornadic activity?

[aperson]

Isn't that normally associated with tornadic activity?

That makes sense, if I follow it NE there are tons of waterspouts. I suppose it's a signature of an area of increased shear.

[HurricaneRyan]

This reminds me of Wilma appearance wise and Matthew track wise.

[SCHawkFan]

Time to get up in Myrtle Breach. Two emergency alerts in the past 15 minutes for tornado warnings. Nothing like a screeching phone at 4 am.

[ncbird]

Just got my home back to normal from the mess Florence made last year and many here are still rebuilding. Hoping we can get the break Florida got, but it's not looking good for us in NC at this time.

[FixySLN]

Early dismissals, closures, and alerts starting to file in up here on the Eastern Shore. What a stubborn system...

[Nimbus]

Charleston SC had gusts to 58 MPH which is enough to bring tree limbs down on power lines.
An outer band is coming ashore near Charleston, wobble watching from Savannah radar.

Eye wobbled around NNE a little but is still not quite paralleling the coast yet.
If the eye continues toward the coast the NHC will adjust the track at 11 AM.
Whatever Charleston gets in the way of winds the next 6 hours is likely to move up the coast with the current track forecast.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[MBismyPlayground]

Are there any current models or info on Dorian? I have told so many about this site yet now I hear crickets since it left Florida.
And can anyone tell me why my porch is now filled with slugs??!! only since we began getting wind and rain. Yuck...thanks to anyone who enlightens me.

[p1nheadlarry]

Are there any current models or info on Dorian? I have told so many about this site yet now I hear crickets since it left Florida.
And can anyone tell me why my porch is now filled with slugs??!! only since we began getting wind and rain. Yuck...thanks to anyone who enlightens me.

Yea it’s a little annoying that it’s usually all about [prninsular] FL (saying that as a resident) but it probably makes up the majority with its population. But to answer your question:

weathernerds.com
tropicaltidbits.com
weathermodels.us

Also google dupage weather, penn st, cimss wisconsin

And of course

nhc.noaa.gov

[tolakram]

From the models thread, this is the 0Z euro, just one model, not a forecast, but should be close to this track.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[FixySLN]

No thanks.

[chaser1]

Are there any current models or info on Dorian? I have told so many about this site yet now I hear crickets since it left Florida.
And can anyone tell me why my porch is now filled with slugs??!! only since we began getting wind and rain. Yuck...thanks to anyone who enlightens me.

Slugs wanna survive as well. Well, not that you'd like them to on your front porch however lol. Just a foretelling sign being displayed by the animal kingdom that increasingly wet conditions are coming. Are you near any sort of flood zone?

[chaser1]

One observation that those on the S. Carolina coast should take a little solace in, the heaviest convection remains to the south of center. This is not typical for a northward moving hurricane and at least temporarily is keeping a good deal of the lashing squalls offshore. This will likely change and I imagine will rotate around to the north with the storms path generally northward. N.C. is looking to get slapped pretty good

[NDG]

Per recon it looks like Dorian is back down to Cat 2.

332
URNT12 KNHC 051149
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 05/11:18:10Z
B. 31.97 deg N 079.32 deg W
C. 700 mb 2744 m
D. 960 mb
E. 340 deg 16 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C40
H. 82 kt
I. 249 deg 21 nm 11:03:30Z
J. 341 deg 87 kt
K. 253 deg 17 nm 11:05:00Z
L. 83 kt
M. 049 deg 29 nm 11:26:00Z
N. 143 deg 92 kt
O. 050 deg 38 nm 11:28:30Z
P. 12 C / 3046 m
Q. 15 C / 3063 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF309 4605A DORIAN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 92 KT 143 / 38 NM 11:28:30Z

[Vdogg]

Is Dorian already trying to transition extratropical?

[Do_For_Love]

Looks like the eyewall opened up on the north side

[Vdogg]

If I draw a line on a NE heading this landfalls in eastern NC west of OBX and keeps going. It would really need to take on an ENE heading to do otherwise, but the forecast doesn’t call for that.

[Vdogg]

From the models thread, this is the 0Z euro, just one model, not a forecast, but should be close to this track.

https://i.imgur.com/cN90wkC.gif

Pretty much in line with the 18z. Looks like OBX gets the worst side of the storm.