ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

looks to be going straight north into Charleston and Myrtle Beach?? Shouldn't it be weakening due to continental interaction

[aperson]

Looks like it's starting to struggle with lower level divergence / shear due to Invest 92L




I don't see how it can strengthen from here. But, well, it's Dorian.

(loop: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined)

[Ptarmigan]

There will definitely be some PHDs given out for this storm.

Hurricane Dorian joins the rank of other infamous hurricanes like 1900 Galveston, Carla, Betsy, Camille, Alicia, Andrew, Mitch, Isabel, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Ike, Sandy, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Michael, etc.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like it's starting to struggle with lower level divergence / shear due to Invest 92L

https://i.imgur.com/LdGJOR9.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485132024949112855/619015966742806539/wg8conv.png

I don't see how it can strengthen from here. But, well, it's Dorian.

(loop: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined)

How can 92L be shearing Dorian? Wouldn't it be the other way around?

[HDGator]

There will definitely be some PHDs given out for this storm.

Hurricane Dorian joins the rank of other infamous hurricanes like 1900 Galveston, Carla, Betsy, Camille, Alicia, Andrew, Mitch, Isabel, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Ike, Sandy, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Michael, etc.

And he's not done yet...

[emeraldislenc]

Yes I am the mayor of Emerald Isle

[aperson]

How can 92L be shearing Dorian? Wouldn't it be the other way around?

I don't see why it has to be one shears the other or vice versa. The divergence zone to the NE of dorian is a result of the circulation 92L is embedded in. It's interfering destructively with Dorian. Something similar happened with a ULL with Florence, you can see the similar sort of mushroom shape with a divergence zone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcYeZMNAbNs&t=125s

[Vdogg]

Looks like it's starting to struggle with lower level divergence / shear due to Invest 92L

https://i.imgur.com/LdGJOR9.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485132024949112855/619015966742806539/wg8conv.png

I don't see how it can strengthen from here. But, well, it's Dorian.

(loop: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined)

How can 92L be shearing Dorian? Wouldn't it be the other way around?

That's what I thought. Sat makes it look like 92L is getting blown away.

[Mzshellg]

They're showing Josh Morgerman talking with Anderson Cooper on CNN.

[HDGator]

Dorian is really starting to dump rainfall from Savannah up to north of Charleston.
This looks to continue for the next day plus looking at the forecast track.
That's a lot of water to drain off and I'm concerned how that will couple with the on-shore winds and storm surge.

[Blinhart]

Yes I am the mayor of Emerald Isle

So are you going to be staying at the same spot you stayed at for the last few???

[emeraldislenc]

Yes, staying in the same spot.

[1900hurricane]

I got an extrapolated 959 mb on the last pass. My extrapolations might be a mb or two high though.

[aperson]

How can 92L be shearing Dorian? Wouldn't it be the other way around?

Ok, thanks for reminding me that I have my brain on backwards after staring at these for too long. It's a high not a low to the east of Dorian that's shearing it here. Low to the west, high to the east, divergence in between.

[floridasun78]

good luck all in path of hurr

[1900hurricane]

I got an extrapolated 959 mb on the last pass. My extrapolations might be a mb or two high though.

Drop ended up being 957 mb.

[Vdogg]

I got an extrapolated 959 mb on the last pass. My extrapolations might be a mb or two high though.

Drop ended up being 957 mb.

https://i.imgur.com/xLdQ7Zn.png

Looks like it's entered a steady state condition.

[Vdogg]

Having a real hard time seeing how this misses Wilmington on this trajectory. They may be looking at the eyewall of a Cat 3. It also looks increasingly like the Euro path west of Obx will verify too. Gonna need a real hard kick east for it not to. Don't see that happening.

[aperson]

Can someone explain to me what physical processes are going on with these efficient looking rain bands that extend perpendicular to the wind field? They even have a noticeable velocity signature



They also show much higher KDP than surrounding precipitation.

[aperson]

Some of the rain bands starting to come in pack a punch:


Waterspout(s)?: