ATL: FERNAND - Remnants - Discussion
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- Nancy Smar
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Re: ATL: Seven - Potential Tropical Cyclone
AL, 07, 2019090312, , BEST, 0, 236N, 946W, 30, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, DISSIPATED, al072019 to al932019, TRANSITIONED, alB32019 to al072019,
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Re: ATL: Seven - Potential Tropical Cyclone
Not much of a question (imho) this will be/is a TC just a question if it gets a name today. I’m thinking it goes inland late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Thankfully no time to ramp up into a monster.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019
First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the
low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better
defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to
be designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt
is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data.
The initial motion is 260/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern
United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward
to west-northwestward through its lifetime. The new forecast track
is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the
center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h.
The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous
track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to
south Texas.
Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the
cyclone moves into Mexico. However, the broad and large nature of
the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before
landfall. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before
reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico
by 72 h.
The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 23.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019
First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the
low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better
defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to
be designated a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt
is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data.
The initial motion is 260/6. A deep-layer ridge over the southern
United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward
to west-northwestward through its lifetime. The new forecast track
is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the
center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h.
The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous
track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to
south Texas.
Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the
cyclone moves into Mexico. However, the broad and large nature of
the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before
landfall. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before
reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico
by 72 h.
The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 23.6N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.4N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 98.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
supercane4867 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/zDAKlV5.png
Craziness, but we should get Fernand later today or early tomorrow morning from this
Also when does recon go into this
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- HurricaneAndre2008
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
Hurricaneman wrote:supercane4867 wrote:https://i.imgur.com/zDAKlV5.png
Craziness, but we should get Fernand later today or early tomorrow morning from this
Also when does recon go into this
Wheels up at 130pm CDT. Also how do you make a topic post on here. Thanks
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Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)
Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
Local mets aren't giving Houston much in the chance of rain...100°+ for about a week straight. We could certainly use some relief.
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Alicia, Rita, Ike and Harvey
Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
mpic wrote:Local mets aren't giving Houston much in the chance of rain...100°+ for about a week straight. We could certainly use some relief.
Agreed, more hot days ahead...miserable down here even where I am living near Galveston.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
These gulf systems can be hard to predict as far as intensity goes. Very broad storm but has nearly 36 hours of water left. 55 knots doesn't seem out of the question.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
Well hopefully this post (my second post) on this site doesn't get deleted for whatever reason. I questioned why we the US would be investigating this system when its close to shore and headed for Mexico. I don't know so that's why I ask doesn't Mexico have some sort of program for this? Thay have a lot of storms hit them right? Also, if all you're going to do is jump on me for asking, don't bother.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
ROCK wrote:mpic wrote:Local mets aren't giving Houston much in the chance of rain...100°+ for about a week straight. We could certainly use some relief.
Agreed, more hot days ahead...miserable down here even where I am living near Galveston.
Dickinson was my Texas hometown for almost 40 years. Moved to Splendora before Harvey. Good seeing you on the boards again.
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Alicia, Rita, Ike and Harvey
- Rgv20
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
Stormtrack70 wrote:Well hopefully this post (my second post) on this site doesn't get deleted for whatever reason. I questioned why we the US would be investigating this system when its close to shore and headed for Mexico. I don't know so that's why I ask doesn't Mexico have some sort of program for this? Thay have a lot of storms hit them right? Also, if all you're going to do is jump on me for asking, don't bother.
Hopefully this helps you understand NOAA's mission...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
403rd Wing, Air Force Reserve Command
Keesler Air Force Base, Biloxi, Mississippi
The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, known as the Hurricane Hunters of the Air Force Reserve, is the only Department of Defense organization still flying into tropical storms and hurricanes – since 1944. The ten Lockheed-Martin WC-130J aircraft and crews are part of the 403rd Wing, based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi.
NOAA Aircraft Operations Center
Lakeland Linder Regional Airport, Lakeland, Florida
The NOAA Aircraft Operations Center is part of NOAA's Office of Marine and Aviation Operations. The airplanes of the Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) are flown in support of NOAA's mission to promote global environmental assessment, prediction and stewardship of the Earth's environment. NOAA's aircraft operate throughout the United States and around the world; over open oceans, mountains, coastal wetlands, and Arctic pack ice. These versatile aircraft provide scientists with airborne platforms necessary to collect the environmental and geographic data essential to their research.
Anyway back on topic....Satellite representation looking good hopefully it can bring some decent rains to the RGV.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
Stormtrack70 wrote:Well hopefully this post (my second post) on this site doesn't get deleted for whatever reason. I questioned why we the US would be investigating this system when its close to shore and headed for Mexico. I don't know so that's why I ask doesn't Mexico have some sort of program for this? Thay have a lot of storms hit them right? Also, if all you're going to do is jump on me for asking, don't bother.
What kind of answer are you looking for? The NHC is in charge of that area and Mexico does not have their own fleet of hurricane hunter planes. We use them for research and to help coordinate watches and warnings. Specifically why we send recon to that area is off topic to this storm.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
Stormtrack70 wrote:Well hopefully this post (my second post) on this site doesn't get deleted for whatever reason. I questioned why we the US would be investigating this system when its close to shore and headed for Mexico. I don't know so that's why I ask doesn't Mexico have some sort of program for this? Thay have a lot of storms hit them right? Also, if all you're going to do is jump on me for asking, don't bother.
Don't play victim. No one jumped you. We answered your question which was cheesy at best.
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
Were I king...this site would close to new membership when things get busy...it's a shame to see posting quality degrade when quality is most needed. Anywho this system looks good...its only impediment is running out of ocean, otherwise it would go Katia which was another storm largely ignored thanks to a beast to its east at the time
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
Steve,
Will this storm stay in Mexico or will it move into Texas? If so where would it head?
Will this storm stay in Mexico or will it move into Texas? If so where would it head?
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Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...
1:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 3
Location: 23.5°N 95.3°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Public
Advisory
#2A
100 PM CDT Aviso
Publico*
not
available Forecast
Advisory
#2
1500 UTC Forecast
Discussion
#2
1000 AM CDT Pronóstico
Discusión*
#2
1000 AM CDT Wind Speed
Probabilities
#2
1500 UTC
34-knot Wind Speed Probability
Wind Speed
Probabilities Earliest Reasonable Time of Arrival of 34-knot winds
Arrival Time
of Winds Wind History
Wind
History Google Maps API Warnings and Track Forecast Cone
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map Warnings and 5-Day Cone
Warnings/Cone
Static Images Surface Wind Field
Warnings and
Surface Wind
Location: 23.5°N 95.3°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Public
Advisory
#2A
100 PM CDT Aviso
Publico*
not
available Forecast
Advisory
#2
1500 UTC Forecast
Discussion
#2
1000 AM CDT Pronóstico
Discusión*
#2
1000 AM CDT Wind Speed
Probabilities
#2
1500 UTC
34-knot Wind Speed Probability
Wind Speed
Probabilities Earliest Reasonable Time of Arrival of 34-knot winds
Arrival Time
of Winds Wind History
Wind
History Google Maps API Warnings and Track Forecast Cone
Warnings/Cone
Interactive Map Warnings and 5-Day Cone
Warnings/Cone
Static Images Surface Wind Field
Warnings and
Surface Wind
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: SEVEN - Tropical Depression
Stormtrack70 wrote:Steve,
Will this storm stay in Mexico or will it move into Texas? If so where would it head?
I think it will move into Mexico - 95% sure. It's now Ferdinand which I missed, but I think that's why they sent recon in to see what was going on. Might be some rain for South Texas with landfalling Ferdinand. It can't go north because of high pressure. Here you go 70.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif
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Re: ATL: FERNAND - Tropical Storm
Watch for center relo towards that northland batch of tstorms. STexas will get some showers I think
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