JB-Florida/EC storm moving N/NNE

[Vortex]

JB expects the system developing E of Nicaragua to move over florida and up the EC late this weekend and phase with the deepening EC trough. He doesn't believe it will remain stationary but move quickly n/nne.

[wxman57]

It would have to cut across a 50-80 kt jet core to reach Florida, though.

[Steve H.]

He must be suffering from jet lag. What "strenght" does he think it will be, and I'm wondering if he is throwing in the towel for the season.

[wxman57]

Joe said he DROVE back from Jacksonville. Maybe he doesnt' like jets?

[Steve H.]

Well I like the Jets. Sorry Houston Think they would fork out enough for a plane ticket for him; I mean he must bring revenue in. The only way I could see that low lifting out (and I actually can) is because the models show a surface low strenthening in the Upper Miss Valley/Appalachians, then moving NNW into the Great lakes. If this retrograde happens it will suck everything from the SW up into the lower Miss valley/SE. Models are split on this, with the other solution being weaker with the low, opening it up and taking it across N.England. But this still means that the shear would have to subside during the next 48 - 72 hours for a tropical system to try to crank. No model shows this now, So I think JB is praying for a coup

[Aquawind]

JB expects the system developing.

He expects something as long as he is still forecasting the tropics.

It's gonna be awhile imho. We have major fropa expected next week.

TBW Extended Today

.EXTENDED (FRI NGT-WED)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. BY MONDAY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME
RAIN TO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE LEFT
ISOLATED POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
GRADUALLY RETURNING...AND MAINLY SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MEX NUMBERS RATHER COOL AND COULD BE RIGHT IF TROUGH
DEEPENS AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY INDICATED...BUT WILL HEDGE SOME AND NOT
GO QUITE AS LOW AS MEX FORECASTS AND WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND.

[vbhoutex]

IMHO JB is wishing against the odds here!!! I see no way that anything from that area can get up across FL and go up the coast!!!! The very closest anything from that area, over the next 5 days or so, could get to FL is between Eastern Cuba and Hispaniola and I think that would be a stretch. The Southern jet is way to strong and would tear anything apart that tried to go that way. With another front coming down that is expected to clear all the coasts by Weds. I just don't see it happening.