2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[supercane4867]

Looks like we are going to get our fourth consecutive year with at least one CAT5

[Hurricaneman]

I’ll say this it’s about to go gangbusters in the next week or 2 and we may just end up with an above average to very above average season that’s why one should never cancel a season before September as this season clearly indicates and it could be nasty we’ll into October and maybe into November

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1168152098783055872

[tolakram]

It's September 1st. Dorian was a major hurricane at the end of August, it's now the strongest hurricane in modern records near the Bahamas. 913mb 180mph cat 5.


There are 3 more disturbances int he Atlantic that may develop over the next week.

[CyclonicFury]

It's incredible that two weeks ago many were calling it a dead season, when now we have a 185 mph Category 5. This basin is crazy with how much it can turn on in late August and early September.

Interestingly, ENSO is very similar to 1992 this year. However the Atlantic SST profile is much more favorable than that year.

[Kingarabian]

It's incredible that two weeks ago many were calling it a dead season, when now we have a 185 mph Category 5. This basin is crazy with how much it can turn on in late August and early September.

Interestingly, ENSO is very similar to 1992 this year. However the Atlantic SST profile is much more favorable than that year.

Well I hope ENSO transitions away from any 1992 comparisons.

[EquusStorm]

The TWO now has a yellow, two oranges, and a red... FOUR actually rather plausible areas of development. Imagine going from not even getting Chantal yet two weeks ago to Imelda a week or so from now.

Life comes at you fast

[Monsoonjr99]

:uarrow: I don't think this post is going to age well in a few days.

Very much indeed. 185 mph C5.. yikes!

[Hammy]

September is here.

Now that the favorable conditions have arrived, CFS is forecasting a fairly active season all the way through mid-October, as it originally was before backing off of the sinking air fading away.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1168592904111063040

[SFLcane]

Again what happens during June July and even part of August has no baring in what the rest of the season holds. Season was over?

[WeatherHoon]

Again what happens during June July and even part of August has no baring in what the rest of the season holds. Season was over?

And long range climate models (Even a couple of weeks out) that show dry sinking motion over the Atlantic during the peak time have no strong bearing to what the season could hold.

[Steve]

Dorian has a ton of ace and will easily cross 40. That’s not Top 10 all time, but it will be over half of what a lot of people predicted for 2019. You have to think we will at least be to H storm by the end of the week, if not sooner. A burst of 3 or 4 storms later in September into October and whatever comes after that puts us above average. Absent a South Pacific volcano or something crazy to shut down the season, my bet now would be above average on ace and named storms - maybe close on hurricane average which is around 6.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1168849183522074624

[NDG]

I meant to say this a last week: This year ain't no repeat of 2013! Lets not compare that year in future seasons for a long time, just as bad as taking 2005 for comparisons

[supercane4867]

[Hurricaneman]

https://i.imgur.com/zDAKlV5.png

The lid popped off and blew away

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1168931085964730369

[psyclone]

When above average activity is called for at what is already the most active time of the year....Buckle up and get ready...it is seriously on. The western Caribbean and Gulf remain an enormous source of (so far) untapped energy.. My early season inklings of a back loaded but ultimately above normal season might verify after all. time will tell...

[Steve]

When above average activity is called for at what is already the most active time of the year....Buckle up and get ready...it is seriously on. The western Caribbean and Gulf remain an enormous source of (so far) untapped energy.. My early season inklings of a back loaded but ultimately above normal season might verify after all. time will tell...

Yeah. We crossed 40 ACE today. It’s about all Dorian. I don’t know if next week’s CCKW does anything but enhance whatever is already on the field which may have all be named by then. 8 is going to Gabrielle, and the system coming off Africa clearly will become Humberto or Imelda. I think we should be at least to 9 named storms and maybe 55-60 ACE by two weekends from this last weekend.