ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Smurfwicked]

Just wow, I guess that's a wrap up on the first EWRC, now a much bigger eye has developed, so cool to see it on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/YlkVnnG.gif

The whole CDO has expanded on IR too. Surprised the wind field hasn't expanded more than it has.

[clambite]

The north side of Grand Bahama has much shallower water. So it probably wouldn't take long for upwelling to occur.

http://tropicwatch.info/grandbahama09022019.png

The thought occurred to me with some of those low lying areas, you could have permanent passes created with all this storm surge...literally island cut into pieces

Being shallow water to begin with...with no cooler water down deep, I wouldn't think upwelling would occur at all.

[Raebie]

The ERC seems to be finished based on radar, but you can see another bigger outer eyewall is developing on microwave. The hurricane force wind field is going to be HUGE

Which is bad news for the Florida coast.

[AlabamaDave]

Just wow, I guess that's a wrap up on the first EWRC, now a much bigger eye has developed, so cool to see it on radar.

Looks like the eastern parts of Freeport are in the intense parts of the western eyewall now.

[GCANE]

Dorian's warm core extends way up in the troposphere.
Anticyclone is creating a big bubble in the tropopause, way past 100mb.
So, the current mid-layer trough will have a near negligable effect on pulling Dorian north.

[birdwomn]

The ERC seems to be finished based on radar, but you can see another bigger outer eyewall is developing on microwave. The hurricane force wind field is going to be HUGE[/quote
Which is bad news for the Florida coast.

It will be very interesting to see how much the center tightens up in this situation. Maybe some good info for ERC predictions in the future?

[AutoPenalti]

Dorian's warm core extends way up in the troposphere.
Anticyclone is creating a big bubble in the tropopause, way past 100mb.
So, the current mid-layer trough will have a near negligable effect on pulling Dorian north.

https://i.imgur.com/beB2IQC.png

https://i.imgur.com/FbrTkXO.png

Well the trough that’s suppose to pull north hasn’t even arrived yet.

[Javlin]

Some have commented on the possibility if a pass might be made?We have an island about 10 miles out not very big called Ship Island it has what is known to us as Camille's Cut were the island was cut in two!

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Came across this just now re: Abaco Bahama

Captain Bamba ⛵️
@bamba_maru
A friend reached out to us from Green Turtle #AbacoIslands at 8:30am via sat device:
"Island gone. Complete destruction. All boats destroyed. We are Safe in Bunker but house blew away. Storm might continue till wednessday."

#Dorian #HurricaneDorian2019 #PrayForTheBahamas

[socplay02]

This place is awesome!!

Not looking for advice, more just some help walking through my thought process and what might be wrong with it.

I live in fort lauderdale and evacuated to Southern Central Georgia (Perry). I went and got supplies last Monday when I saw the ridge on the same Lat as south florida, rented an SUV when it went east of PR (wed), boarded up thurs and took off Friday morning before everyone really went into prep mode Friday (had no traffic, no gas issues). We were ready had the storm not slowed down, largely because I had S2k to give me info to make a rational data driven/supported decision.

Am I crazy to drive to Tampa today, and sneak down the west coast and across 75 back to Ft Lauderdale as the storm goes north? My concern is we will get stuck north of the storm until the end of the week otherwise, especially if it widens and follows some of the models on a cape landfall (Levi explained this really well).

I have a 2.5 year old, my wife is pregnant with our second kid, and I have 2 cats and a dog. My primary goal is to be safe, and want to make sure that 3 nights in a one bedroom Howard Johnson (with the prospect of potentially 3 more nights), isn't clouding my judgment.

[Nederlander]

For those with questions on steering and why Dorian has nearly stalled. The first map is 24 hours ago. Notice the ridge to the north providing clockwise flow. The second map is current. The ridge has weakened significantly and Dorian is sandwiched between two ridges with counter flow. But you can see the escape route to the north that it will eventually take.

24 hours ago:


Current:

[northjaxpro]

As it stands currently. NWS is cutrently forecasting a Storm Surge of about 7 feet up and around Brunswick,, especially in relation to the Golden Isles region and Jekyll Island. and 5 feet in around Jacksonville, especially concerming the Saint Johns River and its tributaries.. Also the Intracoastal Waterway basin will be impacted.

This is very crucial here, especially after what we saw here in Jax with Irma in 2017. This is being monitored very closely.

[plasticup]

Some people on Grand Bahama have been in the eye for over 7 hours...

I have a fear there may be large loss of life — and everything else. 150+mph winds for that long... how does anything survive? And so much of it washed away. Is there any analog for such a horrible event?

Nothing that I can think of in hurricane history...not that long.

Florida should probably prepare for refugees

Maybe, but the bulk of the population in the Bahamas is in Nassau, which has been largely spared. The country has 400,000 people, and of that 51,000 are on Grand Bahama and 17,000 on Abaco.

[johngaltfla]

Dorian's warm core extends way up in the troposphere.
Anticyclone is creating a big bubble in the tropopause, way past 100mb.
So, the current mid-layer trough will have a near negligable effect on pulling Dorian north.

https://i.imgur.com/beB2IQC.png

https://i.imgur.com/FbrTkXO.png

Disturbing if the second ridge builds in and we get a wave of temporary strength from it.

[tolakram]

Meandering, currently NE. I imagine we're going to see this for the next 24 hours or so. The higher rez euro shows very slow west movement for about 24 hours before the turn NW.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=6640&y=5568.5

[supercane4867]

Downtown Freeport will be in the eyewall soon if it keeps crawling west at 1MPH

[GCANE]

Dorian's warm core extends way up in the troposphere.
Anticyclone is creating a big bubble in the tropopause, way past 100mb.
So, the current mid-layer trough will have a near negligable effect on pulling Dorian north.

https://i.imgur.com/beB2IQC.png

https://i.imgur.com/FbrTkXO.png

Well the trough that’s suppose to pull north hasn’t even arrived yet.

Looks pretty darn close, enough to have started some sort of tug on it by now

[SFLcane]

Good morning, local Mets here across SFL seem pretty convinced TS winds are likely in Broward. Still only watch in place though and these rain bands have not been very impressive at all.

[terstorm1012]

has anyone heard from Josh Morgerman and Jim Edds? Sorry to take up room on the thread...but neither have posted since around noon yesterday.

[Raebie]

has anyone heard from Josh Morgerman and Jim Edds? Sorry to take up room on the thread...but neither have posted since around noon yesterday.

I believe they've heard from Jim but no word from Josh yet.