ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nightwatch]

That would not be good. I do not recall a forecast for a stall. It appears to me, a stall has occurred and the overall movement is essentially a wobble here and there. When looking at the overall storm, it is going no where.

Is the trough fading out? It looks like it to me, but I am no weather expert. Any pro mets want to chime in?

It's been forecast to stall exactly like this for days...

I asked a few pages back and sorry for not understanding so much but why do they stall? why is it moving so slow over here? It didn't do that before.

It's so fascinating to see these big storms on earth and it's unbelievable to think what happens at the poor Bahama's atm...

[Nederlander]

That would not be good. I do not recall a forecast for a stall. It appears to me, a stall has occurred and the overall movement is essentially a wobble here and there. When looking at the overall storm, it is going no where.

Is the trough fading out? It looks like it to me, but I am no weather expert. Any pro mets want to chime in?

It's been forecast to stall exactly like this for days...

I asked a few pages back and sorry for not understanding so much but why do they stall? why is it moving so slow over here? It didn't do that before.

It's so fascinating to see these big storms on earth and it's unbelievable to think what happens at the poor Bahama's atm...

Bermuda ridge erosion as forecast = less steering. Trough is not deep enough to pull it up quickly, but does enough damage to the ridge to cause a steering collapse and create a weakness.

Edit to include that ridges of high pressure are clockwise in flow (opposite of TCs). So while the ridge is in place, Dorian was happy to move west along that flow. Without that steering mechanism in place, a TC will slow and meander around until it it feels the effects of more steering.

[robbielyn]

yes hurricanes have powerful engines but no transmission to propel it unless a trough or ULL tugs on it. Right now it’s missing the first trough so no steering mechanisms to propel it one way or another and so it sits and waits for the second one.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/earthuncuttv/status/1168492455886372864

[supercane4867]

The whole island appears to be under water

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserukeu/status/1168495988333600769

[toad strangler]

Not surprisingly a lack of far flung outer bands on the W side of Dorians compact circulation. Pretty dry day in store for FL E Coast.

[BobHarlem]

Anyone down is South Florida, how were those bands that came through this morning? Also that training rain tail in the Keys with the slow storm motion needs to be watched.

[Nightwatch]

It's been forecast to stall exactly like this for days...

I asked a few pages back and sorry for not understanding so much but why do they stall? why is it moving so slow over here? It didn't do that before.

It's so fascinating to see these big storms on earth and it's unbelievable to think what happens at the poor Bahama's atm...

Bermuda ridge erosion as forecast = less steering. Trough is not deep enough to pull it up quickly, but does enough damage to the ridge to cause a steering collapse and create a weakness.

Edit to include that ridges of high pressure are clockwise in flow (opposite of TCs). So while the ridge is in place, Dorian was happy to move west along that flow. Without that steering mechanism in place, a TC will slow and meander around until it it feels the effects of more steering.

Okay, thanks!
Somethimes it's hard to understand cause I am not from the USA and have to look up certain words to see what u guys mean.

I just thought so simple that a Hurricane this big is so powerful and large that it would have no difficulty to "drive through" ridges anyway or blow them away himself but seems to easy thinking... haha

[northjaxpro]

yes hurricanes have powerful engines but no transmission to propel it unless a trough or ULL tugs on it. Right now it’s missing the first trough so no steering mechanisms to propel it one way or another and so it sits and waits for the second one.

In a nutshell. The initial trough currently will likely not pull Dorian out. It will have to wait on the second trough later this week to pick him up finally..

[DestinHurricane]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

How fast would that happen?

[Michele B]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

It should hurry up and get through that weakness before that happens! PLEASE!!

Since it's basically stopped, I suspect that will happen. However, is it possible the STALL may actually PREVENT it from being picked up by the trof? That the weakness will go east and Dorian will miss it?

[Michele B]

It would be nice if we can improve models so they could have detected there we would have been a weaknesses in the ridge to turn this hurricane east. Look at the hurricane center track animation since last week. Looked like Florida was a shoe-in hit just 4 days out at one point then look what happened. Also these models really missed on intensity until we got closer in:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/D ... _with_line

Yeah, they have admitted forecasting intensity has always been a problem with their models. There have to be factors working to cause a storm to weaken or strengthen that they haven't figured out yet.

[Canelaw99]

Seems it was brought up late last week, but how will Invest 93 affect Dorian, if at all? I thought I remembered something about it helping to pull Dorian west if it were strong enough or something? Maybe some of the more western models were showing it stronger? Something like that...The atmosphere is constantly changing and with a stalled system I know we have to keep an eye on all possible players on the field.

[Full8s]

So I often wonder about the odd mentality behind -removed-.
Have any of you done any research on the psychology behind this seemingly counter-intuitive phenomenon?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Its not gonna happen. We will be talking about this storm on wednesday still

[TallyTracker]

The radar and satellite presentation is definitely not as good as a few hours ago. I think the EWRC is partially to blame, but the warming cloud tops may be a sign that the slow movement coupled with partially being over land is starting to cause upwelling. I think we may see some significant weakening today with possible restrengthening tomorrow over the Gulf Stream.

Weakening is relative as it will likely only be weakening to a Cat 4 hurricane at this point...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

So I often wonder about the odd mentality behind -removed-.
Have any of you done any research on the psychology behind this seemingly counter-intuitive phenomenon?

Its like anything else..proving you are right releases dopamine

[daylynsmom]

These houses at Bathtub Beach in Martin County are going to be in big trouble with waves forecasted to continuing to grow during the day today into tomorrow along the king high tides tonight and tomorrow morning.
http://video-monitoring.com/beachcams/bathtub/
https://i.imgur.com/G6FC4eU.jpg

Wonder if that garage will collapse, again?

[Michele B]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

Hmm. Look at the earlier CIMSS analysis from earlier. You can see the weakness, but.compared to the earlier analysis, here the trough is getting narrower and narrower. The trough may indeed be attempting to lift.out. This first, initial trough may not pick up Dorian. I discussed this earlier this morning a page or two back on this thread.

That would not be good. I do not recall a forecast for a stall. It appears to me, a stall has occurred and the overall movement is essentially a wobble here and there. When looking at the overall storm, it is going no where.

Is the trough fading out? It looks like it to me, but I am no weather expert. Any pro mets want to chime in?

A stall HAS to take place, in order to turn a thing like this.

What I'd like to ask is if someone can put up the two images where they show the trough weakening....I only see it as a "sliver" dipping down and am wondering if that is "strong enough" to pick this thing up?

[northjaxpro]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

It should hurry up and get through that weakness before that happens! PLEASE!!

Since it's basically stopped, I suspect that will happen. However, is it possible the STALL may actually PREVENT it from being picked up by the trof? That the weakness will go east and Dorian will miss it?

Timing is always the critical factor in situations just like this. There is a decent chance this initial trough may miss picking up Dorian thus the the ridge can build back in briefly to force Dorian even clossr to the coast over the next 36 hours.Dorian would then have to wait on the stronger troughoving downstream later this week to finally.pick him up northeast .

Still a lot to watch the next couple of days.