ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

These houses at Bathtub Beach in Martin County are going to be in big trouble with waves forecasted to continuing to grow during the day today into tomorrow along the king high tides tonight and tomorrow morning.
http://video-monitoring.com/beachcams/bathtub/

[gatorcane]

It would be nice if we can improve models so they could have detected there we would have been a weaknesses in the ridge to turn this hurricane east. Look at the hurricane center track animation since last week. Looked like Florida was a shoe-in hit just 4 days out at one point then look what happened. Also these models really missed on intensity until we got closer in:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/D ... _with_line

[Jr0d]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

This is troubling for Florida.

Also if a ridge builds back end, not only will a Florida strike become almost certain, Dorian will likely not weaken as forecasted.(though I still expect some weakening if this happens).

[Rail Dawg]

Ya'll might remember my chase with Matthew from Cape Canaveral to Jacksonville.

It was an incredible experience with 120mph wind on the nose of the truck for 6+ hours. The coastal highway behind me was falling into the ocean. Passed the Weather Channel folks in their generator-equipped beachside hotel in Daytona Beach. I might be wrong but it appeared they were feasting on hot steak and egg sandwiches as I scooted by at 10 mph lol.

Looks like Dorian may be quite similar. I'm going to head east from Houston here shortly. The next 24 hours will be critical as we all know.

[Emmett_Brown]

Going by IR, the motion over the last couple of hours looks NW, slow drift. The eye still looks amazing on satellite, but you can make out the oval structure rapidly rotating around inside, perhaps ERC as others have already stated.

[PandaCitrus]

There may be some interesting island topography and frictional effects as Dorian slowly drifts. It may drift WNW following the slope of the land to the northern point of Grand Bahama Island and then slide a little southwest again.

[caneman]

Going by IR, the motion over the last couple of hours looks NW, slow drift. The eye still looks amazing on satellite, but you can make out the oval structure rapidly rotating around inside, perhaps ERC as others have already stated.

The island dips slightly wsw so its deceiving. Looks still west or just a hair above that.

[northjaxpro]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

Hmm. Look at the earlier CIMSS analysis from earlier. You can see the weakness, but.compared to the earlier analysis, here the trough s getting narrower and narrower. The trough may indeed be attempting to lift.out. This first, initial trough may not pick up Dorian. I discussed this earlier this morning a page or two back on this thread.

Would would that mean for the coast of Florida?

Well, the closer Dorian gets to the coast, the more risks of hurricane conditions from 25 miles inland to the coast. This radius woild include Downtown Jax as an example .

East Central Florida Coast would also have bigger risks to hurricane force impacts in a similar fashion if Dorian gets closer as well.

[supercane4867]

Dorian looks larger this morning

[AdamFirst]

Looks like Dorian may be quite similar. I'm going to head east from Houston here shortly. The next 24 hours will be critical as we all know.

Have a safe trip RD!

[supercane4867]

IR loop. Not moving much at all

[PandaCitrus]

Some of the symmetry of the western eyewall is getting deformed slightly on IR in the last few frames. Maybe the eyewall replacement cycle is commencing.

[PandaCitrus]

It's moving west just at 1-2 mph. Like watching paint dry. If you look at it long enough you can see the west movement.

[3090]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

Hmm. Look at the earlier CIMSS analysis from earlier. You can see the weakness, but.compared to the earlier analysis, here the trough is getting narrower and narrower. The trough may indeed be attempting to lift.out. This first, initial trough may not pick up Dorian. I discussed this earlier this morning a page or two back on this thread.

That would not be good. I do not recall a forecast for a stall. It appears to me, a stall has occurred and the overall movement is essentially a wobble here and there. When looking at the overall storm, it is going no where.

Is the trough fading out? It looks like it to me, but I am no weather expert. Any pro mets want to chime in?

[supercane4867]

Interesting structure on 06z HMON. It has a compact inner core maintain CAT3 strength all the way to NC landfall but with a gigantic wind field. This is likely due to an incomplete ERC.

This would be much worse than Matthew even the track appears to be similar

[birdwomn]

It's moving west just at 1-2 mph. Like watching paint dry. If you look at it long enough you can see the west movement.

Those are the exact words that were said to me last night.
Me: I find it fascinating to watch the changes in these storms
Spouse: I can see that you enjoy watching paint dry.

[dukeblue219]

That would not be good. I do not recall a forecast for a stall. It appears to me, a stall has occurred and the overall movement is essentially a wobble here and there. When looking at the overall storm, it is going no where.

Is the trough fading out? It looks like it to me, but I am no weather expert. Any pro mets want to chime in?

It's been forecast to stall exactly like this for days...

[toad strangler]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

Hmm. Look at the earlier CIMSS analysis from earlier. You can see the weakness, but.compared to the earlier analysis, here the trough is getting narrower and narrower. The trough may indeed be attempting to lift.out. This first, initial trough may not pick up Dorian. I discussed this earlier this morning a page or two back on this thread.

That would not be good. I do not recall a forecast for a stall. It appears to me, a stall has occurred and the overall movement is essentially a wobble here and there. When looking at the overall storm, it is going no where.

Is the trough fading out? It looks like it to me, but I am no weather expert. Any pro mets want to chime in?

A stall of some fashion has been modeled for at least 2 days. There is nothing amiss right now. S FL local Mets who were certain that the W movement would cease and Dorian eventually move N amid all yesterday’s noise are poised to be looking great.

[Nederlander]

The escape route may be getting ready to close as the ridge builds back in from the west

https://i.imgur.com/wDKFTuQ.gif

Hmm. Look at the earlier CIMSS analysis from earlier. You can see the weakness, but.compared to the earlier analysis, here the trough is getting narrower and narrower. The trough may indeed be attempting to lift.out. This first, initial trough may not pick up Dorian. I discussed this earlier this morning a page or two back on this thread.

That would not be good. I do not recall a forecast for a stall. It appears to me, a stall has occurred and the overall movement is essentially a wobble here and there. When looking at the overall storm, it is going no where.

Is the trough fading out? It looks like it to me, but I am no weather expert. Any pro mets want to chime in?

Yes, a stall (or significant slowing down) was forecast. And the trough was not supposed to “pick up” Dorian. Rather, it was supposed to erode the ridge to the north, which the slowdown indicates it has. Secondly, the ridge to the west was supposed to build east, helping to block a westward route. The question I think is where the western periphery of the Bermuda high sets up, as that will be the boundary that Dorian rides north and eventually NE.

[supercane4867]

6 hours+ of non stop CAT5 conditions, what hell on earth is that?

 https://twitter.com/reaganmatt/status/1168468612455292929