ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/Ruptly/status/1168443117978230784

[northjaxpro]

Per 5 a.m. Advisory,

NHC extends Hurricane Watcb from Brevard County/Volusia County line north to the mouth of The Saint Mary's River. This includes the Jacksonville Metro area.

[GCANE]

Obviously eye has become elliptical due to weakening.
Appears to be one dominante mesovort with two maybe smaller ones.
Recon can't drop over land, so we'll have to go by instrumentation readings from recon's air data boom.

[GCANE]

Per 5 a.m. Advisory,

NHC extends Hurricane Watcb from Brevard County/Volusia County line north to the mouth of The Saint Mary's River. This includes the Jacksonville Metro area.

Morning Jax:
How are you? How are the preps going?

[GCANE]

AF308 just turned around. Looks like they are headed back to Keesler.

[Tailspin]

https://weather.us/satellite/bahamas/to ... 0920z.html

[otowntiger]

Obviously eye has become elliptical due to weakening.
Appears to be one dominante mesovort with two maybe smaller ones.
Recon can't drop over land, so we'll have to go by instrumentation readings from recon's air data boom.

Hopefully the upwelling and land interaction will cause it to weaken a lot more than forecast.

[GCANE]

The upcoming trough wont do squat.

[GCANE]

AF303 also stopped squawking 44 min ago

[northjaxpro]

Good morning

I am tired from so much preps being done and working overtime with monitoring Dorian. I awakened to see that Dorian has just about come to a stall over Grand Bahama Island early this morning.

There is still so much to watch very closely. Remember steeriing currents are so weak right now and Dorian can take any type of loop.or sudde motion durinv today which COULD place the cyclone very.near the Florida East Coast the next 24 hours. Those of us, especially in East Central and Northeast Florida, are still anxiously watching every wobble or move forva tjroughout the day into this evening. We will find out by late this evening (hopefully) just how close the storm will get upon approach as we get into Tuesday. The actual turn poleward is forecast to begin in about 24 hours from now.

My heart is breaking still for our neighbors in the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island, which the island is sitting literally in Dorian's eyewall at the time of this post. Dorian will be one of the most talked about North Atlsntic tropical cyclones ever! What an historic storm and unfortunately we still will have to add much more to his story before he's finished.

Keep all in The Bahamas in your thoughts and prayers everyone!!!

[StormingB81]

I got somewhat of a good night sleep last night because who knows how I’ll sleep until this is gone. Anxiously watching this on the coast of Brevard county. Feel so bad for the Bahamas.

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1168459683717439488

[Nimbus]

Good morning

I am tired from so much preps being done and working overtime with monitoring Dorian. I awakened to see that Dorian has just about vome to a stall over Grand Bahama Island early this morning.

There are still so much to watch very closely. Remember steeri g curre ts are so weak right now and Dorian can take any type of loop.or sudde motion durinv today whi h COULD place the yclone very.near the Florida East Coast the next 24 hours. Those of us, especially in East Central and Northeast Florida, are still anxiously watching every wobble or move forva tjroughout the day into this evening. We will find out by late this evening (hopefully) just how close the storm will get upon approach as we get into Tuesday. The actual turn poleward is forecast to begin in about 24 hours from now.

My heart is breaking still for our neighbors in the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island, which the island is sitting literally in Dorian's eyewall at the time of this post. Dorian will be one of the most talked about North Atlsntic tropical cyclones ever! What an historic storm and unfortunately we still will have to add much more to his story before he's finished.

Keep all in The Bahamas in your thoughts and prayers everyone!!!

So far Freeport isn't doing too badly highest winds are near 50 knots.
Wouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville doesn't see over 50 knots either, but the initial echoes could be a wobble. I still haven't looked at the slosh model are you below 10'?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=spgf1

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

[GCANE]

UL High over east GOM firmly anchored.
Dorian is not going north anytime soon.

Anti-cyclone got a little behind Dorian.
That and the EWRC will knock it down a notch.
Need to see what happens when it gets back in the water.
Gulf Stream is right offshore.

[northjaxpro]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1168459683717439488

Yep. It will be fascinating seeing the windfield expand and the process evolving concerning this beginning today. We should see ERC today and possibly a couple of more in the next couple of days. Dorian will grow in size!

[Nightwatch]

Noob question: Why is Dorian moving so slow?

I noticed some scientist point to Climate Change and that it's a pattern all over the globe for the last decaded but why is this one so slow now?

[GCANE]

CIMSS is showing a north steer for Cat 5 intensity due to a ULL to the south and ULH to the SE.
I don't know, Diabatic Ridge directly to the SE from Dorian's outflow will likely put a lid on that.
Also with Dorian weakening, steering will likely come from the next notch down which at this time is weakly to the west.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning

I am tired from so much preps being done and working overtime with monitoring Dorian. I awakened to see that Dorian has just about vome to a stall over Grand Bahama Island early this morning.

There are still so much to watch very closely. Remember steeri g curre ts are so weak right now and Dorian can take any type of loop.or sudde motion durinv today whi h COULD place the yclone very.near the Florida East Coast the next 24 hours. Those of us, especially in East Central and Northeast Florida, are still anxiously watching every wobble or move forva tjroughout the day into this evening. We will find out by late this evening (hopefully) just how close the storm will get upon approach as we get into Tuesday. The actual turn poleward is forecast to begin in about 24 hours from now.

My heart is breaking still for our neighbors in the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island, which the island is sitting literally in Dorian's eyewall at the time of this post. Dorian will be one of the most talked about North Atlsntic tropical cyclones ever! What an historic storm and unfortunately we still will have to add much more to his story before he's finished.

Keep all in The Bahamas in your thoughts and prayers everyone!!!

So far Freeport isn't doing too badly highest winds are near 50 knots.
Wouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville doesn't see over 50 knots either, but the initial echoes could be a wobble. I still haven't looked at the slosh model are you below 10'?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=spgf1

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

I hope you are right Nimbus.about not being surprised that Jax not seeing.more than 50 Kts on Wednesday. Maybe Dorian can do what Floyd did in 1999 in staying about 80 miles off the Northeast Florida coast keeping the very worse impacts just far enough offshore. Now, I do want to add that Floyd did take out and destroyed the original Jax Beach Pier with those strong waves that year however.

[Canelaw99]

How long until that ridge to the west builds in (?)over Dorian?

[Nimbus]

Good morning

I am tired from so much preps being done and working overtime with monitoring Dorian. I awakened to see that Dorian has just about vome to a stall over Grand Bahama Island early this morning.

There are still so much to watch very closely. Remember steeri g curre ts are so weak right now and Dorian can take any type of loop.or sudde motion durinv today whi h COULD place the yclone very.near the Florida East Coast the next 24 hours. Those of us, especially in East Central and Northeast Florida, are still anxiously watching every wobble or move forva tjroughout the day into this evening. We will find out by late this evening (hopefully) just how close the storm will get upon approach as we get into Tuesday. The actual turn poleward is forecast to begin in about 24 hours from now.

My heart is breaking still for our neighbors in the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island, which the island is sitting literally in Dorian's eyewall at the time of this post. Dorian will be one of the most talked about North Atlsntic tropical cyclones ever! What an historic storm and unfortunately we still will have to add much more to his story before he's finished.

Keep all in The Bahamas in your thoughts and prayers everyone!!!

So far Freeport isn't doing too badly highest winds are near 50 knots.
Wouldn't be surprised if Jacksonville doesn't see over 50 knots either, but the initial echoes could be a wobble. I still haven't looked at the slosh model are you below 10'?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=spgf1

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

I hope you are right Nimbus.about not being surprised that Jax not seeing.more than 50 Kts on Wednesday. Maybe Dorian can do what Floyd did in 1999 in staying about 80 miles off the Northeast Florida coast keeping the very worse impacts just far enough offshore. Now, I do want to add that Floyd did take out and destroyed the original Jax Beach Pier with those strong waves that year however.

Front is moving into Georgia now which might help northern Florida.
There was some talk about daytime heating effecting the gulf high which might effect the shorter term track.
I benchmarked the Freeport buoy not getting over 95 knots as a forecast verification last night and so far so good. edit: to add I'm guilty of sleeping last night as well.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=spgf1

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop