ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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HDGator
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7081 Postby HDGator » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:48 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
HDGator wrote:
aperson wrote:Wobble watching a stalling system that's also undergoing an ERC. Y'all masochists.

When you're 105nm away from the COC you have few choices.
:(


How far would it be from palm city / Stuart area? Is gardens what 20 miles south?

I'm probably 30 miles south. The distance from Palm City is probably 115-120nm and that's a guestimate without knowing an exact location.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7082 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:53 am

HDGator wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
HDGator wrote:When you're 105nm away from the COC you have few choices.
:(


How far would it be from palm city / Stuart area? Is gardens what 20 miles south?

I'm probably 30 miles south. The distance from Palm City is probably 115-120nm and that's a guestimate without knowing an exact location.


Thank you. The length of time it heads wnw to nw will make a difference for us.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7083 Postby MrStormX » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:55 am

And after that southerly wobble, now we are seeing a northerly wobble. So the location of the center of circulation might be getting right back in line with the original forecast points. It will be interesting to see what happens at this crucial juncture.

There are definitely some positive signs that the storm is weakening, which is another positive step (unless what Levi mentioned earlier starts to happen).
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7084 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:02 am

Officially moving due west at 2mph
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7085 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:03 am

It looks like the cloud tops are starting to warm slightly, could be some weakening starting from upwelling/land interaction/ERC. Eye still looks good though.

Looking like the models and the NHC had this stall nailed a long time ago, should give a bit more confidence to the sharp north turn and offshore track although everyone stay vigilant, obviously.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7086 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:10 am

eastcoastFL wrote:Officially moving due west at 2mph


Wow! Alot of the modeling and NHC nailed this! I would not think it could stop on a dime. 2mph for even 20 hours keeps it well off SFL. I want more data to see if it really pulled off a nearly dead stop. I suspect it is some weird math error based on the obvious loop wobble. This should slow gradually as it approaches, not lose 60% of its forward speed an hour. Love to hear from some historians about other stalling storms forward momentum decay rate. I am well outside of my expertise and experience.
Last edited by sponger on Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7087 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:20 am

First band just barely hit Juno Beach.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7088 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:46 am

Still drifting West.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7089 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:47 am

Could this be the stall we've been eagerly anticipating? If so, this could potentially be very good news for the entire SE as this is early. However, because it is quite a bit earlier than model consensus had the stall, I'm wondering if this is a fakeout and that it will resume slow westerly movement. Hopefully not.

Also, cloud tops are warming, indicative of further weakening, which I assume would be largely due to upwelling and some due to land. Remember what Levi said about the HWRF. He thinks that it has been showing a motion more toward the NW than NNW after the slowdown and change in direction from W due to a lower steering level caused by weakening being assumed due to upwelling. Let's see what happens. Do we already have the real stall now that will then change to a NNW move offshore FL. Or does it later threaten central/NE FL like the many HWRF runs?
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7090 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:47 am

The current satellite image of Dorian stalled over Grand Bahama is probably one of the craziest sat loops in recent memory.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7091 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:49 am

It is definitely still moving...just so slowly...right up the spine of the island. I cant imagine how it is on Grand Bahama right now. If you're in the eye you may be in it for multiple hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7092 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 02, 2019 2:55 am

On its 2nd 360 wobble. I would bet its true motion is 4 mph WNW
not 2. Still going to stall before it passes the island. Brutal even with a weakening storm. Tomorrow will be interesting to say the least.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7093 Postby southerngale » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:03 am

4:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.6°N 78.1°W
Moving: W at 1 mph
Min pressure: 916 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7094 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:04 am

southerngale wrote:4:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.6°N 78.1°W
Moving: W at 1 mph
Min pressure: 916 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph


Wow! Dead stop!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7095 Postby rigbyrigz » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:07 am

The Miami radar (ch 7) I am watching (stalled now) under FUTURE (4AM-10AM) seems to show it moving due North and maybe Briskly at about 10AM. Could it start it up so soon?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7096 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:09 am

rigbyrigz wrote:The Miami radar (ch 7) I am watching (stalled now) under FUTURE (4AM-10AM) seems to show it moving due North and maybe Briskly at about 10AM. Could it start it up so soon?


Anything the can stop like that on a dime can certainly take off when the steering currents kick in. Never seen anything like it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7097 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:16 am

I have no idea what the record is for being in a Cat 5 eye but I suspect the Western Bahamas is going to exceed it.
Last edited by sponger on Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7098 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:19 am

Imagine walking out of your home (or what's left of it) into the bowl of a Cat 5 eye, which continues spinning at full speed above you for hours, still being fed by warm ocean waters on both hemispheres. It's just crazy. I wouldn't wish on anyone what those citizens of Bahamas are going through, but they are possibly witnessing something no one else on earth has, at least not quite like this.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7099 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:32 am

Western circulation nowhere near as intense as Eastern. Weakening well under way.
Last edited by sponger on Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#7100 Postby hiflyer » Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:36 am

The radar site TPBI is at the same latitude as Dorian making it easier to see path and changes...basically a head on shot until the turn really starts. TFLL is just south and similar view if TPBI “takes a nap” like it is right now. Sigh
Last edited by hiflyer on Mon Sep 02, 2019 3:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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