ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

https://www.google.com/maps/@26.619945, ... 2736?hl=en

looks extremely susceptible to surge, basically no elevation. I really feel bad for Grand Bahama Island right now.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

[Vdogg]

For those who think this can’t make landfall in Florida the 0zGFS indeed does make landfall near Titusville and looking at how this is moving this could even make landfall a little farther south like port St Lucie so everyone within the eastern 2/3 of Florida north of Melbourne need to have preps done and keep tabs on the situation using official sources like the NWS and NHC

I’m sorry, but I don’t see landfall. It gets close, but the only landfall I see is in NC. Can you post the particular image that has landfall?

[Highteeld]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

Jynx XD

[T-man]

eyewall brush is not a landfall.

This is not the storm to split hairs on. Eyewall contact with a landmass will be a serious problem with this particular storm at this stage in its developement, which would be, fully developed.

[Nederlander]

For those who think this can’t make landfall in Florida the 0zGFS indeed does make landfall near Titusville and looking at how this is moving this could even make landfall a little farther south like port St Lucie so everyone within the eastern 2/3 of Florida north of Melbourne need to have preps done and keep tabs on the situation using official sources like the NWS and NHC

It initialized poorly too. It has it on the north side of GB and heading WNW. Obviously this is not happening.

[KC7NEC]

eyewall brush is not a landfall.

This is not the storm to split hairs on. Eyewall contact with a landmass will be a serious problem with this particular storm at this stage in its developement, which would be, fully developed.

It's not splitting hairs or semantics in this case... Landfall has a very precise meteorological definition. Yes, it shows a forecast of getting closer to the coast, and eyewall passing ashore.... its not landfall though.

[Hurricaneman]

For those who think this can’t make landfall in Florida the 0zGFS indeed does make landfall near Titusville and looking at how this is moving this could even make landfall a little farther south like port St Lucie so everyone within the eastern 2/3 of Florida north of Melbourne need to have preps done and keep tabs on the situation using official sources like the NWS and NHC

I’m sorry, but I don’t see landfall. It gets close, but the only landfall I see is in NC. Can you post the particular image that has landfall?

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 200&fh=-12
54 hrs

[karenfromheaven]

Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 4:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 3:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.59N 77.96W

Distance =25.5 miles
Azimuth: 263.86° True

25.5 miles/ 4.43 hr = 5.75 mph

Is 270° considered West, and anything higher be WNW?

not exactly, otherwise we would be calling this WSW right now....it is when it is more than halfway between W and WNW or 281 degrees

On a 32-point scale, the next compass point would be West by North (WbN), for you old-timey sailors:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Points_of ... ass_points

[hurricaneCW]

eyewall brush is not a landfall.

This is not the storm to split hairs on. Eyewall contact with a landmass will be a serious problem with this particular storm at this stage in its developement, which would be, fully developed.

People put way too much emphasis on wind and the eyewall. A large, powerful hurricane barely offshore would be very impactful from the surge alone.

Surge & inland flooding is what mostly kills people, not wind.

[HurricaneEric]

I'm not here to second guess meteorologists either. It seems that Dorian has a mind of its own though...defying everyone, including myself.

I don’t think its as extreme as second guessing experts, its just understanding that the experts’ models (as great as they are) still have a margin of error that can mean the difference between TS force winds/squally weather and a direct landfalling Cat 5 for certain areas.

I hate to be that guy, but I keep thinking back to Irma (as well as others), and they typically got further west than originally thought. The margin of error meant a difference between a landfalling Cat 5 devastating Dade, Broward, and PBC to max Cat 1 force wind gusts for those areas. Its a very dicey situation and I’d hate to be one of the experts cause the majority of the ill-informed public don’t take into consideration how difficult this science is and immediately make absurd assumptions.

However, I think its fine to wonder if some of these models are slowing down Dorian and ending its due west motion too soon.

On that note, is there anyone that can compare where the storm was meant to be by this time according to yesterday’s models? I do feel Dorian has trended a tad bit faster and, therefore, more west of recent guidance.


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[ScottNAtlanta]

I see people talking about EWRCs are occurring...I see no evidence of that, recon has not mentioned that there are concentric eye walls (its still 13miles wide), and Sat views show a still symmetric eye...so no, an EWRC has not started. Here is something to explain what IS an EWRC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle

[BobHarlem]

Is the eye going to wind up completely south of Grand Bahama or is it just me?

[utweather]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

Yeah I just dont see anything immediately upstream picking this up with my amateur eyes. It looks like an asphalt roller. I hope I'm wrong.

[TheDreamTraveler]

At this point I'm extremely annoyed at the headstrong people and meteorologists that are convinced this won't landfall and barely impact land at all. I'm trying to wrap my head around it...I guess certain people are too afraid of being wrong and they have too much pride? You gotta leave your mind open to possibilities here. This isn't a easy forecast at all. I can barely remember another time where every little change mattered like this. A lot of people and mets are going to look like fools if this gets far enough west.

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

models are likely fully underestimating the ridge pumping likely happening.

stay vigilant florida east coast !

[TallyTracker]

Is the eye going to wind up completely south of Grand Bahama or is it just me?

https://i.imgur.com/LkInERE.jpg

Yes I’m seeing it too. Their has clearly been a slightly south of due west motion. It doesn’t appear to be an illusion from the EWRC ongoing either.

[HurricaneEric]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

Yeah I just dont see anything immediately upstream picking this up with my amateur eyes. It looks like an asphalt roller. I hope I'm wrong.

Remember, the first trough isn’t picking this up. All its doing is weakening the mid level ridge thats currently pushing this system west. The collapse in steering currents than makes Dorian stall.

The question is how far west can Dorian get before it stalls? Because the stall and subsequent north turn is happening. But when and where?


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[deltadog03]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617

models are likely fully underestimating the ridge pumping likely happening.

stay vigilant florida east coast !

I agree and no matter where this ends up in the short term or long term, its still evident by the speed and direction its going that what ridging is there, is still steering Dorian.

[T-man]

eyewall brush is not a landfall.

This is not the storm to split hairs on. Eyewall contact with a landmass will be a serious problem with this particular storm at this stage in its developement, which would be, fully developed.

It's not splitting hairs or semantics in this case... Landfall has a very precise meteorological definition. Yes, it shows a forecast of getting closer to the coast, and eyewall passing ashore.... its not landfall though.

When the storm passes your location, still offshore, but only 22 miles away, it does not matter to you whether it makes landfall or not. That was my point. That was my situation with Katrina...