ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Joe Snow]

Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....

Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 4:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 3:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.59N 77.96W

Distance =25.5 miles
Azimuth: 263.86° True

25.5 miles/ 4.43 hr = 5.75 mph

Is 270° considered West, and anything higher be WNW?

[FLpanhandle91]

I'm not here to second guess meteorologists either. It seems that Dorian has a mind of its own though...defying everyone, including myself.

How do you personally see the steering currents playing out? Does the ridge break down rapidly enough to allow a turn NW and N to miss the coast?

[Vdogg]

Looks like it's going to cross the whole Island...

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3c0a74b1f3ad706827abcc48c9afe836e6a32b19b348bb1bcee2b4e47145a8bf.gif

That’ll at least weaken it somewhat.

[BLUEBIRDFLA]

I would not take a PBC landfall off the table.

We are in pbc. Leaving in the morning.

[FLpanhandle91]

Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....

Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 4:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 3:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.59N 77.96W

Distance =25.5 miles
Azimuth: 263.86° True

25.5 miles/ 4.43 hr = 5.75 mph

Is 270° considered West, and anything higher be WNW?

Correct.

[FLeastcoast]

1 mph increase over the last advisory. I’m in Pompano and feeling nervous. People, media, etc everyone seems extremely nonchalant.... looks like it’s sliding right down the south side of Grand Bahama.

Keep looking back here. We will tell you if there's a real need for concern. Just be careful that you get your info from the NHC, local emergency officials, and pro mets.
Don't get unnecesarrily panicked by people on any boards or social media who are not professionally trained for this. Good luck and hang in with us.

Thank you I am scared to death. I needed to hear this

[MacTavish]

Mods here are top notch and make sure that everything stays on topic and if something said on here is unreasonable or not backed up by data, it gets pointed out rather quickly. I am actually impressed by the thoughtful discussions taking place here. But thanks for your concern.

I mostly agree, it wasnt directed to those people and they know it. thats why im a member here. And thanks for the mature response, unlike some folks having daddy flashbacks

[DestinHurricane]

GFS has this thing moving north in the next two hours. We'll see if that holds.

Within my opinion this could continue westward for the next 12-24 hours.

If this continued westward for 24 hours at its current speed it would landfall around the West Palm Beach area.

[FLeastcoast]

1 mph increase over the last advisory. I’m in Pompano and feeling nervous. People, media, etc everyone seems extremely nonchalant.... looks like it’s sliding right down the south side of Grand Bahama.

Keep looking back here. We will tell you if there's a real need for concern. Just be careful that you get your info from the NHC, local emergency officials, and pro mets.
Don't get unnecesarrily panicked by people on any boards or social media who are not professionally trained for this. Good luck and hang in with us.

Thank you I am scared to death. I needed to hear this

[jhpigott]

Link to South Florida Water Management District's radar with NHC forecast line overlayed will be interesting to follow

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Jevo]

Most Popular Question Right Now: When is the North turn supposed to occur?

Average Response: Yes



Sorry gang I needed a bit of levity in my life right now.

[tropicwatch]

Things are getting nifty in Freeport. Weather station there reporting 54mph winds and a weather buoy on the west end of Grand Bahama reporting 44-50mph winds.
Queen's Highway - IWESTGRA2
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWESTGRA2?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

Station SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI, Bahamas
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[utweather]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168358227693559808
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168361740305760258
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168367598674706433

I dont like the fact that it's a weakness and not a trough that is suppose to do the recurvature.

At least it is moving slow enough that people can find shelter at the last minute if necessary.

[Hurricaneman]

For those who think this can’t make landfall in Florida the 0zGFS indeed does make landfall near Titusville and looking at how this is moving this could even make landfall a little farther south like port St Lucie so everyone within the eastern 2/3 of Florida north of Melbourne need to have preps done and keep tabs on the situation using official sources like the NWS and NHC

[Vdogg]

Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....

Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 4:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 3:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.59N 77.96W

Distance =25.5 miles
Azimuth: 263.86° True

25.5 miles/ 4.43 hr = 5.75 mph

Is 270° considered West, and anything higher be WNW?

270 is true due west. On a compass West is between 270 and 292 at which time it becomes WNW.

[Blown Away]

I'm not here to second guess meteorologists either. It seems that Dorian has a mind of its own though...defying everyone, including myself.

This is a once in a lifetime storm, I expect him to play by his own rules. To sustain and eye w/o an ERC and 180 mph winds for hours is amazing...

[shah83]

eyewall brush is not a landfall.

[Ian2401]

I'm not here to second guess meteorologists either. It seems that Dorian has a mind of its own though...defying everyone, including myself.

This is a once in a lifetime storm, I expect him to play by his own rules. To sustain and eye w/o an ERC and 180 mph winds for hours is amazing...

truly feels like we are witnessing history. then again the past two years have been littered with historic storms between irma and harvey and michael so idk.

[CronkPSU]

Ok...lets do this:
I will do calculations for direction, distance, and speed for the next few recon fixes....

Point 1:
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:02:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.63N 77.55W
Point 4:
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 3:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.59N 77.96W

Distance =25.5 miles
Azimuth: 263.86° True

25.5 miles/ 4.43 hr = 5.75 mph

Is 270° considered West, and anything higher be WNW?

not exactly, otherwise we would be calling this WSW right now....it is when it is more than halfway between W and WNW or 281 degrees

[ColdMiser123]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168376524120047617