ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KC7NEC]

Based on Track & Time we don't have to wait for the turn tomorrow night essentially. If it doesn't start the slow down in the next 6-10 hours thats an ominous sign. Its stalls out near Freeport for several hours before the turn so if its still moving then we have issues....

[AutoPenalti]

S FL local Mets sure of Dorian being picked up and taken N avoiding FL.

I’m not happy with that.

[Blinhart]

Someone who has a little more expertise, can you please share a current picture of all these things that the NHC is stating is happening (i.e. the ridge decaying, the trough moving in to pick him up), I just haven't seen enough to show me that this is actually happening. I know it probably is but I just don't see it.

[jdjaguar]

I'm vaugely interested in whether Freeport actually gets some of that closeup eyewall action. I'm also wondering how the surge coming over the low north gets to the higher elevation south, and how big the waves will be on top of the surge.

Vaguely?
This is life and death, son.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radar from the Bahamas, with a map in the background, from 2:00am through 10:35pm EDT on Sunday, September 1st, of Hurricane Dorian.
https://imgur.com/H1Bk8Oi

Adding a map really makes the file size go up on the image file with the way I have to do it, taking a screen capture of a map, so I'm not going to post the 15 megabyte image. I'll create a shorter loop.

[Nimbus]

Based on Track & Time we don't have to wait for the turn tomorrow night essentially. If it doesn't start the slow down in the next 6-10 hours thats an ominous sign. Its stalls out near Freeport for several hours before the turn so if its still moving then we have issues....

That lurch wsw must have been 10 mph or more.

[Snowman67]

Hard to imagine the pounding that Grand Bahama is experiencing. Looks like the eye wall may ride the entire spine....

[Blinhart]

How long is Grand Bahama?? Looks like it might be 60 miles long and if so going at 5-6 MPH you are talking 10 to 12 hours to get all the way off of it. And the stall is suppose to be 18 hours, which would be half way in between Freeport and PBC.

[ozonepete]

No signs of cloudtop warming

https://i.imgur.com/iKq6XPX.gif

https://i.imgur.com/dMn6DKl.gif

Nor cooling. In steady state.

[Sciencerocks]

The Weather Channel guy working with Knabb this 11pm update expressed a little concern that the system hasn’t turned yet.

What? Not supposed to turn for 18-24 hours yet

Should have some N component though, look at the NHC graphic I posted a few posts up.

Looks slightly south of due west to me. This storm will get very close to florida. May even landfall.

[HDGator]

Hard to imagine the pounding that Grand Bahama is experiencing. Looks like the eye wall may ride the entire spine....

This is an absolute worst case scenario for Grand Bahama.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/Y9FKj4S.png

current motion of Dorian is roughly the red line. Dorian is not following the NHC track at the moment

This current motion not good for Freeport... Also, the 5am Disco had Dorian at 78.1W at 0600z... Looks like Dorian will be passing that point soon and get a few miles farther west before 0600z... Any left adjustment can mean more wind for Florida coast... JMHO

[lhpfish]

1 mph increase over the last advisory. I’m in Pompano and feeling nervous. People, media, etc everyone seems extremely nonchalant.... looks like it’s sliding right down the south side of Grand Bahama.

[shah83]

This storm needs to slow down and at least stick to W by about two hours before the screaming starts. Something very local, perhaps the gulf artifact might be having more of a steering impact than expected.

[tropicwatch]

I don't think that was really a jump in speed the eye didn't seem to move any faster just the outer wall of Dorian, unless someone has a better graphic to show it all.

We are about to find out AF in eye now.

[Texashawk]

How long is Grand Bahama?? Looks like it might be 60 miles long and if so going at 5-6 MPH you are talking 10 to 12 hours to get all the way off of it. And the stall is suppose to be 18 hours, which would be half way in between Freeport and PBC.

This, exactly. Someone’s math isn’t adding up - if the storm is moving 6/7 MPH right now (reported by NHC) and the stall doesn’t happen until Monday night... yet the forecast point is north of Freeport and only about 40 miles from present position. Please, someone, explain to me how these numbers fit together...

[catskillfire51]

How long is Grand Bahama?? Looks like it might be 60 miles long and if so going at 5-6 MPH you are talking 10 to 12 hours to get all the way off of it. And the stall is suppose to be 18 hours, which would be half way in between Freeport and PBC.

From sweetings cay to west end is 71.1 miles at a NW angle from where the eye is straight west is 57 miles

[shah83]

Man, the GFS init isn't even very right. Seriously Dorian, PULL UP!!

[NDG]

Just amazing!

 https://twitter.com/NOAA_HurrHunter/status/1168365343103959040

[Snowman67]

Hard to imagine the pounding that Grand Bahama is experiencing. Looks like the eye wall may ride the entire spine....

This is an absolute worst case scenario for Grand Bahama.

If it stays on this course, I fear the pictures we will see tomorrow will be as if an F3 tornado hit the entire island.