ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Nice little surge in forward speed in last few frames...

[Cargill]

I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???

We've been to Princess Cay on the very southern tip of Eleuthera - so a bit south and rather east of Nassau. Other cruise companies have places in that general region too.

[DestinHurricane]

current motion of Dorian is roughly the red line. Dorian is not following the NHC track at the moment

[KC7NEC]

I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???

Info on Disney's private cay...story is all are accounted for but they were not evacuated...

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weathe ... 27417.html

Disney also stated that the island was suth of the storm and only would have TS winds.... but based on location, radar, and the path it HAD to go through the eye. The highest spot on the entire island is 23' and thats not where any of the structures are. I am afraid Disney is spending the night with Lawyers, and PR knowing the sentenced thier staff to death.

[Nederlander]

Dorian is again south of the forecast track.. pretty much has been for the last 2 days. still no noticeable north component that has held. likely will be south of the next forecast point with the immediate wnw motion called out by the models ... when it clearly has not done so.

so the shifting will continue to but subtle but westerly. until it actually turns.. florida east coast is still very much in danger of landfall.

Image

That still looks pretty much on-track to me. But .. that's just me.

The center is almost imperceptibly south of the forecast point but I'm not sure how material that is. One wobble will put it back on track. I'm more interested in the turn, which is not supposed to occur for at least another 24 hours.

This has been stated multiple times but isn’t really true. The next forecast point is north of Grand Bahama and east of Freeport. Can it still make that? Yes, but it will need to commence a heading of ~290 now. That will only get steeper the more it stays on its current heading.

[supercane4867]

No signs of cloudtop warming

[Joe Snow]

Current RADAR for KAMX

[jfk08c]

It seems to me like every model has this getting to the end of Grand Bahama at 8pm tomorrow. They eyewall will probably completely be on shore in the next few hours. I really don't see this storm taking that long to cross the island, especially because it looks like it might actually be raining speed. A little concerning I must say

[Nimbus]

Freeport is about the same distance from the eyewall now as the forecast track is from the Florida east coast barrier islands. They are getting 38 knots sustained with 48 knot gusts.
I don't know what the slosh model does with this storm for surge though.

[toad strangler]

S FL local Mets sure of Dorian being picked up and taken N avoiding FL.

[Blown Away]

Wow, look at the surge in forward speed all of the sudden...

[jdray]

It's interesting when you are under a Tropical Storm watch until further notice.

[Blinhart]

I know all the cruise lines have private Cays in the Bahama's, just not sure where they are. Are they up near Freeport or closer to Nassau???

On the map below #1 Disney's Castaway Key is the closest to Dorian's eyewall, I am sure they are or got some damage.
Further south & west is #2 Royal Caribbean's & #3 next to them Norwegian, not sure where Carnival has theirs, have never been to theirs.

https://i.imgur.com/yHyEPzG.gif

So we are talking probably close to 100 million dollars or more in damage just for those 3 cays and who knows how many deaths there. This storm will be retired for sure we will be looking at billions of dollars of damage just in the Bahama's and who knows how many deaths.

[GeneratorPower]

The Weather Channel guy working with Knabb this 11pm update expressed a little concern that the system hasn’t turned yet.

[toad strangler]

The Weather Channel guy working with Knabb this 11pm update expressed a little concern that the system hasn’t turned yet.

What? Not supposed to turn for 18-24 hours yet

[drewschmaltz]

1. I have a house in hope town abaco. Initial reports are not good.

2. The N/S jogs don't matter too much IMO. The forecast track looks like an "L" Moving an L up or down doesn't change its westernly most component. Shifting it left and right does. So, I'm watching this foward speed like a hawk. (well, as it relates to Florida)

3. Don't those clouds point NE? The "he goes where he points" exercise has been fun. Is he still pointing?

4. Abaco again. Damn. Terrible.

[catskillfire51]

I don't think that was really a jump in speed the eye didn't seem to move any faster just the outer wall of Dorian, unless someone has a better graphic to show it all.

[MississippiWx]

I am thoroughly in awe of how Dorian has been able to sustain such power. I can’t imagine the damage we will see at daylight tomorrow in the Bahamas. The lack of eyewall replacement cycles is rare and I’d love to know how Dorian has been able to avoid them. At this point, you have to wonder if another bout of intensification is possible before a stall occurs. Normally, I would say no way, but Dorian is different. Just amazing.

[CronkPSU]

The Weather Channel guy working with Knabb this 11pm update expressed a little concern that the system hasn’t turned yet.

WESH guys in Orlando are definitely wobbling on their confidence as well

[DestinHurricane]

The Weather Channel guy working with Knabb this 11pm update expressed a little concern that the system hasn’t turned yet.

What? Not supposed to turn for 18-24 hours yet

Should have some N component though, look at the NHC graphic I posted a few posts up.