ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dspguy]

Georgia will also begin evacuations tomorrow AM:

https://twitter.com/AaronDiamantWSB/status/1168328489851916288

I would think they have gotten some priority advice from the NHC before making such decision, which means we may see a westward shift in track at 11PM advisory

I don't think they need priority advice. It's a Cat 5 now. What if it only weakens to a 4 and wobbles onshore? Coastal GA and SC are in that cone. Seems obvious to evac

[Emmett_Brown]

Concentric eyewall structure is very obvious now on Bahamas radar

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b9694099e6c71010393eab93c2992246230b89224898a78d5ae2a0bdf07f3dc7.png

Sure looks that way. Recon doesn't show a wind maximum associated with the formative outer eye wall yet, however.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Honestly have never seen a storm maintain this level of intensity this long, Irma included. It's been 185mph for over 8 hours now.

[canes92]

Can't wait for this storm to be done and over with so we can all move on with life. It's been hectic since last Wednesday.

[toto]

With all this discussion about models, has anyone really highlighted the fact that we DO NOT have a whole lot of Cat.5 historical data to feed the model computers, much less data of storms that are "off the charts" like Dorian???? Seems to me that we are experiencing history here and need to respect that because there isn't a lot of data of storms of this strength, the models can't be relied upon with normal confidence. Just trying to put some perspective on this in terms of our brilliant forecasters and what we should expect from them. This is like a court case setting precedence.

The name, Dorian, reminds me of Oscar Wilde's novel, "The Picture of Dorian Gray", whose appearance is deceptive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pictu ... orian_Gray

[Highteeld]

rip sfmr

[tropicwatch]

Can't wait for this storm to be done and over with so we can all move on with life. It's been hectic since last Wednesday.

Still have Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina still to visit.

[KC7NEC]

Can't wait for this storm to be done and over with so we can all move on with life. It's been hectic since last Wednesday.

Still have Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina still to visit.

They are doing far more evacuations now than Florida

[toad strangler]

Can't wait for this storm to be done and over with so we can all move on with life. It's been hectic since last Wednesday.

Still have Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina still to visit.

True, although Dorian thankfully likely will be unraveling at that time.

[O Town]

I'm thinking this is the next landfall, shortly.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/485132024949112855/617898544833101826/unknown.png

Good call...

http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/090119_2152ET_DORIAN_GRANDBAHAMA.jpg

Those "cays" look small enough to completely wash away or vulnerable enough to be drastically changed by this kind of surge.

That’s exactly what hubby and I were just talking about looking at google earth. And little Abaco Island is going to have a few new inlets. It’s been hammered by the northern eye wall for hours. All those islands and cays will look different come tomorrow morning.

[Kazmit]

Can't wait for this storm to be done and over with so we can all move on with life. It's been hectic since last Wednesday.

Still have Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina still to visit.

It's been around for 8 days and will be probably survive for another 6.

[PanAmMIA]

Don't know if it was just unfortunate scheduling, or something dropped in the line-up at the last minute, but that movie was on TCM today. Thought if your description while I was watching that.

Mike
[/quote]


The name, Dorian, reminds me of Oscar Wilde's novel, "The Picture of Dorian Gray", whose appearance is deceptive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pictu ... orian_Gray[/quote]

[Blown Away]

Last few frames Dorian had a little surge of forward speed and still moving W...

[Kat5]

Last few frames Dorian had a little surge of forward speed and still moving W...

Must be a last kick from the upper High before the weakness establishes tomorrow.

[Highteeld]

Moving about 5 mph westward

[galaxy401]

Concentric eyewall structure is very obvious now on Bahamas radar

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b9694099e6c71010393eab93c2992246230b89224898a78d5ae2a0bdf07f3dc7.png

Sure looks that way. Recon doesn't show a wind maximum associated with the formative outer eye wall yet, however.

Indeed, could be an ERC but I think the radar is just misleading. Yesterday it looked similar but there wasn't a double eyewall.

[1900hurricane]

rip sfmr

https://i.imgur.com/7vYRYeP.png

Yep, data dropouts everywhere. Can't remotely estimate wind speed from sea state if there isn't any water.

[Aric Dunn]

Dorian is again south of the forecast track.. pretty much has been for the last 2 days. still no noticeable north component that has held. likely will be south of the next forecast point with the immediate wnw motion called out by the models ... when it clearly has not done so.

so the shifting will continue to but subtle but westerly. until it actually turns.. florida east coast is still very much in danger of landfall.

[Emmett_Brown]

Last few frames Dorian had a little surge of forward speed and still moving W...

Must be a last kick from the upper High before the weakness establishes tomorrow.

Well, if there was ever a storm that could pump up its own ridge, this is the one. They just don't get more organized than this. And now we wait for the big slow down/stall...

[supercane4867]