ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like its going stright down the middle of the island.
Likely not though,
Land friction will slow down the LL vorts.
Wonder if this starts to stall here or get a precesion effect.

[drezee]

Looks like its going stright down the middle of the island.
Likely not though,
Land friction will slow down the LL vorts.
Wonder if this starts to stall here or get a precesion effect.

Well..it is going S of W...no good either way..
If that continues, then it will go south of freeport and the western part of island get nothing by eyewall

Azimuth, Point 1 to Point 2: 262.08° @ 5.87 mph

[STRiZZY]

Is there a site where I can view a satellite of Dorian that's lets say, 12 hours long? to get a better sense of direction.

[birddogsc]

Is there a site where I can view a satellite of Dorian that's lets say, 12 hours long? to get a better sense of direction.

Like this?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-25-12&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

[CronkPSU]

10:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.8°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 915 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

[1900hurricane]

Is there a site where I can view a satellite of Dorian that's lets say, 12 hours long? to get a better sense of direction.

Here's the RAMMB page for Dorian. Click archive of the loop you want to view, choose your start and end times, and then hit loop.

[NFLnut]

https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/388385e4-6f6c-483a-8915-b786ee4a64b2.jpg

This is the track CNN posted 1.5 hours ago. As you can see, it appears it will be just a *little* off of reality

Well, "this IS CNN" after all.

I don't even think those plot points are accurate. They seem "off."

[STRiZZY]

Is there a site where I can view a satellite of Dorian that's lets say, 12 hours long? to get a better sense of direction.

Like this?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-25-12&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

You're the best!

[STRiZZY]

Is there a site where I can view a satellite of Dorian that's lets say, 12 hours long? to get a better sense of direction.

Like this?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-200-1-25-12&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

You're the best!

[SapphireSea]

One take away from Levi's video:

The weaker the storm becomes due to upwelling or eyewall replacement, the higher the chance that it gets steering more from the lower levels, which is from SE-NW as shown in the HWRF runs

His explanation of that was fantastic.

Just goes to show how COMPLICATED these situations are. It's a miracle we can track them at all.

So much to learn, the thought never crossed my mind that the actual height of the storm could change the path due to steering at different levels.

Fascinating stuff Levi!!

Levi's explanation is very good. There indeed is quite a bit to learn, luckily we have come a very long way in tracking the paths of the storm. There is such a vast gap in knowledge in understanding the dynamics to create intensity predictions. Truthfully, I don't know if we will ever get good at that. There is alot of interesting features other than understanding steering layer flows. Someone here I believe was on a paper on Vince/Delta regarding tropopause height anomalies (lower tropopause) allowing warm-core systems to form with water < 25c.

We wont every truly resolve how high the center column goes in the storm I think. We do not sample deeply enough at flight levels. (correct me if I am wrong, not sure about all the instrumentation on AF missions) If anything I believe they also do not fly up further than 150mb.

[lrak]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1

west of Freeport...Wow big pressure drop

[Nimbus]

Looks like Dorian has wobbled south a little and lost about 7 minutes of latitude which isn't uncommon for a stalling hurricane. Not sure about the EWRC as the inner eyewall still looks intact on IR. There is a buoy station out on the western tip of the island just west of Freeport that will give us some idea of the wind field and perhaps what the Florida east coast barrier islands might experience.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=spgf1

Currently pretty steady winds ~33 knots with gusts to 42 knots.
Only good thing I see is the slower forward speed might be an indicator it is going to stall before the turn to the NW. No opinion about changing the track, although if the wind speed goes over 95 knots at this buoy we may only have 24-36 hours to make final evacs from Florida coastline.

[ROCK]

10:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.8°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 915 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

D is ridiculously strong..185 sustained will level just about everything gust up to 200mph!! I mean seriously..you go outside in 185 and you would die. That’s like a EF4 but for hours not seconds. Possibly a EF 5 gusts sustain 200mph...

[Smurfwicked]

I'm thinking this is the next landfall, shortly.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/485132024949112855/617898544833101826/unknown.png

Good call...

http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/090119_2152ET_DORIAN_GRANDBAHAMA.jpg

Those "cays" look small enough to completely wash away or vulnerable enough to be drastically changed by this kind of surge.

[BobHarlem]

this SFWMD radar has the eye fully visible and has the purple track to assist in serious wobble watching

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

[Ptarmigan]

10:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.8°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 915 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

D is ridiculously strong..185 sustained will level just about everything gust up to 200mph!! I mean seriously..you go outside in 185 and you would die. That’s like a EF4 but for hours not seconds. Possibly a EF 5 gusts sustain 200mph...

No way I want to get caught in that for sure.

[supercane4867]

Concentric eyewall structure is very obvious now on Bahamas radar

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like it's on track.

this SFWMD radar has the eye fully visible and has the purple track to assist in serious wobble watching
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

[EmeraldCoast1]

With all this discussion about models, has anyone really highlighted the fact that we DO NOT have a whole lot of Cat.5 historical data to feed the model computers, much less data of storms that are "off the charts" like Dorian???? Seems to me that we are experiencing history here and need to respect that because there isn't a lot of data of storms of this strength, the models can't be relied upon with normal confidence. Just trying to put some perspective on this in terms of our brilliant forecasters and what we should expect from them. This is like a court case setting precedence.

[supercane4867]

911.9mb, 155kt FL


Not weakened yet...