ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Tailspin]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/E4BAXqEcGYk[/youtube]
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
52m
Sunday night video update on Hurricane #Dorian:

[p1nheadlarry]

Wow, this thread is way more quiet than it was just a few days ago..........

That happens when a) all the action is on the discussion thread with the spectacular display of Dorian and b) the threat of FL landfall seems to diminish (I am not saying no threat btw)

[shah83]

NAM 00z has slighly stronger ridge, but a more materially weaker trough. I think it's a bit north though. In any event, it's slightly west of 18z. Such as that matters.

[shah83]

I meant that NAM had the storm north of where I think it would likely be 9hrs, 15hrs. @21hrs, 00z NAM is substantially west of the 18z.

[MrJames]

18z UKM ensembles


Closeup

[STRiZZY]

18z UKM ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/9WAs9tN.png

Closeup
https://i.imgur.com/Qd3bvHy.png

Huge.

And then there were two.... (HMON, HWRF)

[Smurfwicked]

Levi in tonight's video calls out the vortex height shown in the HWRF in Dorian (because of upwelling) causing the lower level steering currents to overcome the trough, which winds up with the more westerly track. Thus the storm weakening because of up welling ultimately may make it worse for Florida.

Have any of the models even caught up with the current intensity yet? Worried about a Florida landfall too but seems like going further west delaying the turn is the most critical aspect of whether or not this stays offshore or not. Not dismissing that intensity plays a role in all this too.

Charts I've seen posted appeared that the models have actually been weak on intensity vs. actual today at least. Is it safe to assume model intensity will continue to be weaker than actual until we actually see Dorian weaken some?

Asking for insight more than making a statement here.

[SouthFloridawx]

That was from earlier this afternoon, before it hit Abaco.

18z UKM ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/9WAs9tN.png

Closeup
https://i.imgur.com/Qd3bvHy.png

Huge.

And then there were two.... (HMON, HWRF)

[ROCK]

If I was on the east coast of FL I would be heading west for a few days. It is wobbling south of west now which is not good for FL...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

18z UKM ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/9WAs9tN.png

Closeup
https://i.imgur.com/Qd3bvHy.png

Huge.

And then there were two.... (HMON, HWRF)

Great news. Time for me to clock out. UKMET gave up its SW track and up the spine finally. Everyone good lukc

[drewschmaltz]

If I was on the west coast of FL I would be heading east for a few days. It is wobbling south of west now which is not good for FL...

So people in say, Sarasota - hundreds of miles from the official forecast should travel to, say, Palm Bay to be tens of miles from it? That doesn't seem right....

[CronkPSU]

If I was on the west coast of FL I would be heading east for a few days. It is wobbling south of west now which is not good for FL...

[DelrayDude]

18z UKM ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/9WAs9tN.png

Closeup
https://i.imgur.com/Qd3bvHy.png

Those are old. Look where it’s initialized. Dorian is west of those starting points now.

[viberama]

If I was on the west coast of FL I would be heading east for a few days. It is wobbling south of west now which is not good for FL...

Huh? Not a model post and bad advice.

[ConvergenceZone]

Since none of the models are shooting west suddenly, I'm starting to feel better about things. If I wake up tomorrow and none of the the models have changed(such as heading west), I think we can definitely breath a sigh of relief that we've dodged a bullet. I mean, the storm isn't going to defy physics, if the weakness is there, then it's going to get pulled North, plain and simple. If it's not there, then it won't be pulled North. But at this point, all indications are that it will be there...........

[EmeraldCoast1]

With all this discussion about models, has anyone really highlighted the fact that we just DO NOT have a whole lot of Cat.5 historical data to feed the model computers, much less data of storms that are "off the charts" like Dorian???? Seems to me that we are experiencing history here and need to respect that because there isn't a lot of data of storms of this strength, the models can't be relied upon with normal confidence. Just trying to put some perspective on this in terms of our brilliant forecasters and what we should expect from them. This is like a court case setting precedence.

Another analogy for the forecasters/models would be that of a football team that has practiced perfectly based on game film, then show up to the game and the opposing team has 2 receivers that can run faster than anybody in the game and a new quarterback that can throw 80 yards. Would be a little unfair to blame the defense of failing to prepare in that situation. Dorian may be both the fastest receiver and superstar quarterback, all at once.

[ROCK]

If I was on the west coast of FL I would be heading east for a few days. It is wobbling south of west now which is not good for FL...

So people in say, Sarasota - hundreds of miles from the official forecast should travel to, say, Palm Bay to be tens of miles from it? That doesn't seem right....

Meant west coast of FL

[TheDreamTraveler]

https://youtu.be/E4BAXqEcGYk
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
52m
Sunday night video update on Hurricane #Dorian:

Levi's latest video is absolutely amazing with how he goes in depth. He's one of the best in the field and his reasoning for why this could still come ashore Florida makes sense.

[chaser1]

Levi in tonight's video calls out the vortex height shown in the HWRF in Dorian (because of upwelling) causing the lower level steering currents to overcome the trough, which winds up with the more westerly track. Thus the storm weakening because of up welling ultimately may make it worse for Florida.

Have any of the models even caught up with the current intensity yet? Worried about a Florida landfall too but seems like going further west delaying the turn is the most critical aspect of whether or not this stays offshore or not. Not dismissing that intensity plays a role in all this too.

Charts I've seen posted appeared that the models have actually been weak on intensity vs. actual today at least. Is it safe to assume model intensity will continue to be weaker than actual until we actually see Dorian weaken some?

Asking for insight more than making a statement here.

Good questions, no answers, but plenty of opinions lol. Dorian is a tremendously strong hurricane. Does that matter? In some ways I think it could. Oddly, Levi's video would seem to contradict what I was thinking though. He could well be right. I would have thought that this storm would have an even higher vertical column thus more apt to be also steered by the much higher 200-300mb levels. In fact, according to Levi the HWRF depicts the storm to be more shallow (after upwelling) than the GFS or Euro and that might be cause for lower level steering to continue moving the storm over East coast Florida.

On the topic of "deep" tropical cyclones, I've heard arguments on both sides. A super strong and deep hurricane can better spew out strong outflow and further warm the upper atmosphere... thus "pump up the ridge". On the other hand, it has been my experience that deeper tropical cyclones are more apt to feel the effects of mid-latitude troughs, thus more easily creating/finding a weakness and then reacting to the southwesterly flow that develops and causing the hurricane to turn more poleward as a result. On a different note, I do believe that particularly large hurricanes are more apt to influence the environment around them, while smaller storms seem a bit more squirrely and subject to quick intensity and track changes.

[Sanibel]

Levi's not considering that the Gulf Stream has a constant flow of warm water replacing what has been upwelled thusly cancelling out his expected upwelling effect...