ATL: DORIAN - Models

[GeneratorPower]

18Z EURO

"The Turn" happens exactly at 45 hours, around 11am EST on Tuesday.... Put that in your calendars. Turn occurs on the north-west end of Grand Bahama Island

We gotta wait two days for this to resolve itself? Omg.

[La Sirena]

18Z EURO

"The Turn" happens exactly at 45 hours, around 11am EST on Tuesday.... Put that in your calendars. Turn occurs on the north-west end of Grand Bahama Island

We gotta wait two days for this to resolve itself? Omg.

So the models say

[NFLnut]

18Z EURO

"The Turn" happens exactly at 45 hours, around 11am EST on Tuesday.... Put that in your calendars. Turn occurs on the north-west end of Grand Bahama Island

We gotta wait two days for this to resolve itself? Omg.

I don't think any of us on this board are good at waiting! I know that I hit reload every 15 seconds.

[StPeteMike]

Nor can anyone really wait almost 97 miles east of WPB to see if any weakness in the ridge will occur.

[Mfrier]

Very slow trending today. I’d love to see what the ibm mpas is doing with this. Hint hint if someone up above is reading this.

[supercane4867]

18z GFS ensembles

[NFLnut]

Very slow trending today. I’d love to see what the ibm mpas is doing with this. Hint hint if someone up above is reading this.

On second thought, maybe you don't. Plus, I don't think any of us know what kind of credibility that model has. Some of the models that get posted here often are way off on intensity and/or track guidance. Maybe after Dorian is long gone and look at it and all of the other models in hindsight, which of course will happen.

[Ken711]

[gatorcane]

18Z UKMET ensembles?

[BobHarlem]

Levi in tonight's video calls out the vortex height shown in the HWRF in Dorian (because of upwelling) causing the lower level steering currents to overcome the trough, which winds up with the more westerly track. Thus the storm weakening because of up welling ultimately may make it worse for Florida.

[robbielyn]

levi has tonight’s video up. hwrf may be on to something. by the time dorian heads to fl, it may weaken due to upwelling due to stalling over grand bahama, and cause it to take a more westerly track. euro and gfs not picking up on upwelling, but that’s just one possibility.

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z UKMET ensembles?

I agree with Gator. Please post when a available


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[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1168330372939227136

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, this thread is way more quiet than it was just a few days ago..........

[SEASON_CANCELED]

18Z EURO

"The Turn" happens exactly at 45 hours, around 11am EST on Tuesday.... Put that in your calendars. Turn occurs on the north-west end of Grand Bahama Island

At its current Speed it will be well past that point...it will be over Orlando. So we need a stall to near zero

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Wow, this thread is way more quiet than it was just a few days ago..........

Most local metereologists in florida gave the all clear yesterday.

[TAD]

I greatly appreciate Levi's explanations. In my opinion the NHC forecast discussion would be of greater value if he wrote them.

Levi in tonight's video calls out the vortex height shown in the HWRF in Dorian (because of upwelling) causing the lower level steering currents to overcome the trough, which winds up with the more westerly track. Thus the storm weakening because of up welling ultimately may make it worse for Florida.

[jdray]

Wow, this thread is way more quiet than it was just a few days ago..........

Most local metereologists in florida gave the all clear yesterday.

Thankfully the ones up here in Jacksonville are still pressing the need to watch the NHC.

[SouthFloridawx]

Did anyone notice that they got rid of the TAB models on the SFWMD graphic?

[CronkPSU]

Wow, this thread is way more quiet than it was just a few days ago..........

it'll pick up around 11:30 and definitely at 2 this morning....this thread was well ahead in # of pages earlier this week but now most people are using the discussion thread cause we are in the nowcasting and not a million long range models