ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

It's not forecast to have any northern component to its movement until sometime tomorrow. Until about 2pm tomorrow, the NHC has it going almost due west in the 5pm forecast.

Yup. Exactly right.

Man, I hope you're right (the NHC is right) because if it slips a little south or stays west longer, the east coast of Florida is going to have some serious problems, just my 2c.

If that were to start happening the NHC will handle it.

[ColdFusion]

Sorry if this is a repost...

[PandaCitrus]

So the waters south of Grand Bahama are very deep, thousands of feet with lots of oceanic heat content and the waters north of grand bahama are very shallow without the heat content.

I don't know if there are processes with the storm but if you look at the radar the south west drift of the eye is almost making a bee line for the warm deep water south of Grand Bahama Island.

[tropicwatch]

AF flying now.

[northjaxpro]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Both 18z HMON and HWRF have landfall on the Cape. Sadly the state of Florida may not dodge the bullet of the decade after all

The HWRF has been very persistent showing a landfall.on the East Central Florida Coast for the past couple of days. I have been on edge about this for awhile. It may indeed end up being right

[jlauderdal]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Both 18z HMON and HWRF have landfall on the Cape. Sadly the state of Florida may not dodge the bullet of the decade after all

The HWRF has been very persistent showing a landfall.on the East Central Florida Coast for the past couple of days. I have been on edge about this for awhile. It may indeed end up being right

It did very well with intensity

[Highteeld]

Time to track this buoy

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=spgf1

[underthwx]

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
Let`s face it. Everyone is looking at Hurricane Dorian so there is
really no point in writing much for a local forecast discussion in
SE Texas. Drier air marked by precipitable water values under 1.5
inches has kept convection from forming. There is slightly higher
moisture from near College Station to north of Crockett and there
has been a few showers and isolated storms to form. We added some
low PoPs to account for this but really do not think there will be
much if any activity the rest of the afternoon.

Excerpt from our local forecast discussion, here in Southeast Texas...pretty benign in comparison to what yall are up against my friends...this forecast discussion I posted has a deeper meaning I feel...its representative, of a time of crisis, that affects y'all, it's a national, and worldwide crisis, the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, the Carolina's.... You... are not in this alone....id feel better knowin y'all are watching this storm in your rearview mirrors, on your way out of dodge....

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/climateguyw/status/1168307231512809473

[ColdFusion]

Lastest from Hope Town Fire and Rescure

Good evening-I know all of you are anxious for news of the condition of people and places. I am not on island am relying on what information is given me. I would love to answer all the messages that have been sent but can't. As soon as the FD has done a comprehensive check of the island we will post the results. Thank you for your prayers, your interest and your love of Hope Town. We truly appreciate it.

What we do know.
1. There is catastrophic damage on Elbow Cay, Man-o-War, Marsh Harbour and the surrounding areas (haven't heard from Guana)
2. No reports of casualties or fatalities on Elbow Cay.
3. We will know more tomorrow and plans are being put in place here in FL for the recovery efforts.
4. As information comes in I will post. It will be what is said to me by FD members on island.

-B.Hall, Communications Officer, HTVFR
Peace and be safe

[Ian2401]

just had my first little mini band move through. was gusty and rainy for a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

UL HIgh now positioned over NE GOM
Some afternoon popups over west FL eroding this a bit.
Steering not as strong as compared 6 hrs ago.
Expect popups to rain out shortly.
Diurnal cooling should build the UL High back up overnight.
Not seeing the trough doing much with this.


https://i.imgur.com/JgHqZYz.png

https://i.imgur.com/Fu4fwXU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xt4H539.png

Hey GCANE the upper ridging is finally showing up on the steering maps..

[Patrick99]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I’ll admit it. I’m skeptical.

Personally,’when I look at “trofs” and “ridges” I don’t see a big dip that looks like it’s going to pick this thing up.

I get it. It’s not that I don’t trust NHC. I do. But hey they are human, and thus have to be spectacularly wrong some time, right? This is also a special case where they wouldn’t even have to be THAT wrong in order to preside over a catastrophe. Chugging W into WPB would be bad enough....heaven forbid a WSW drift into Broward. Neither would really be spectacularly wrong with regard to their forecast, but the general public would view it as such. There’d be hell to pay.

For me, I just have a hard time reconciling the models with 2 graphics in particular:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 22.05,2357

I look at those and think why wouldn’t this just keep going west at least in the near term, if not WSW?

[DestinHurricane]

The hurricane vs global model divide proves that a stronger storm will end up farther west. Global models do not initialize with the correct current strength of the system, however, hurricane models do. A stronger storm will not be picked up by the trough as easily as say a cat 1 or 2 hurricane. Not a pro but this has been explained to me by mets in the past.

[Visioen]

https://twitter.com/climateguyw/status/1168307231512809473

That is exactly my concern. Global models have no clue how deep this storm is.

[Michele B]

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

I'm going to give it 18 hours to turn before I say model fail. But at this point in time, the next 6-12 hours is going to be a nail biter for everyone from Palm Beach to Charleston, SC.

NHC doesn't really have it turning until 36 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/B0RGZA5.png

Just got home-looking at the current cone....I see the timetable has changed. Yesterday, the “lines” were closer together, meaning it would go very slow to hit the next timeline.

Now, I notice the lines are much further away from each other. I assume this means it’s going to make the turn and almost WHIP north very quickly.

Apparently they have great confidence in the strength of that Front to move this monster storm.

[chaser1]

SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
Let`s face it. Everyone is looking at Hurricane Dorian so there is
really no point in writing much for a local forecast discussion in
SE Texas. Drier air marked by precipitable water values under 1.5
inches has kept convection from forming. There is slightly higher
moisture from near College Station to north of Crockett and there
has been a few showers and isolated storms to form. We added some
low PoPs to account for this but really do not think there will be
much if any activity the rest of the afternoon.

Excerpt from our local forecast discussion, here in Southeast Texas...pretty benign in comparison to what yall are up against my friends...this forecast discussion I posted has a deeper meaning I feel...its representative, of a time of crisis, that affects y'all, it's a national, and worldwide crisis, the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, the Carolina's.... You... are not in this alone....id feel better knowin y'all are watching this storm in your rearview mirrors, on your way out of dodge....

Kind words!

[Ken711]

8:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.6°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 915 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

[AutoPenalti]

UL HIgh now positioned over NE GOM
Some afternoon popups over west FL eroding this a bit.
Steering not as strong as compared 6 hrs ago.
Expect popups to rain out shortly.
Diurnal cooling should build the UL High back up overnight.
Not seeing the trough doing much with this.


https://i.imgur.com/JgHqZYz.png

https://i.imgur.com/Fu4fwXU.gif

https://i.imgur.com/xt4H539.png

Hey GCANE the upper ridging is finally showing up on the steering maps..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.GIF

That’s the 250mb ridging that Levi was talking about right?

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

The hurricane vs global model divide proves that a stronger storm will end up farther west. Global models do not initialize with the correct current strength of the system, however, hurricane models do. A stronger storm will not be picked up by the trough as easily as say a cat 1 or 2 hurricane. Not a pro but this has been explained to me by mets in the past.

exactly. i feel like this were weaker wed already started seeing that turn. this storm fought through some negative conditions already before becoming major, some even had this not becoming much after PR. hes not going quietly and being picked up like a cat by the scruff. dorian will donwhat he wants on his terms and so far he wants to have a last minute summer vacation to ECFL