ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Ian2401]

to match the hwrf its gonna have to start heading WNW

[BobHarlem]

Thing to note here is that any further south landfall than what the 18z HWRF shows would involve some serious residential property damage. Say, just shy Palm Bay. Don't think this will make Orlando, though in any way.

N Brevard and New Smyrna/Daytona (which has grown a lot in the last few years) would get devastated there. Hurricane force wind would reach into East Orlando.

[CronkPSU]

Thing to note here is that any further south landfall than what the 18z HWRF shows would involve some serious residential property damage. Say, just shy Palm Bay. Don't think this will make Orlando, though in any way.

doesn't/t need to "make it" to Orlando, if it goes thru an EWRC, winds would be wrecking trees all the way to the Magic Kingdom if it lands there

[johngaltfla]

Thing to note here is that any further south landfall than what the 18z HWRF shows would involve some serious residential property damage. Say, just shy Palm Bay. Don't think this will make Orlando, though in any way.

If the HWRF were to verify, the damage would be in the tens of billions. Cape Canaveral facilities would be severely damaged as would SpaceX, Lockheed-Martin, etc. Plus numerous other large corporations with facilities from Cocoa Beach up to Daytona. It would be an epic disaster.

Let's hope the 0600 model run is more "hopeful" because that one is depressing.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF... Another landfall @Melbourne...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Dorians eye completely visible through miami radar. Approximately 150 miles away.

Honestly...it looks like its bearing SW

[BobHarlem]

Dorians eye completely visible through miami radar. Approximately 150 miles away.

Honestly...it looks like its bearing SW

Melbourne Radar long range is also got a pretty good bead on it, two different viewpoints.

[Blown Away]

18z HMON... Another landfall near the Cape...

[CronkPSU]

Thing to note here is that any further south landfall than what the 18z HWRF shows would involve some serious residential property damage. Say, just shy Palm Bay. Don't think this will make Orlando, though in any way.

N Brevard and New Smyrna/Daytona (which has grown a lot in the last few years) would get devastated there. Hurricane force wind would reach into East Orlando.

yep...as someone who lives in Avalon Park (the big power station on the beach line) this would not be good at all

[northjaxpro]

HMON showing 891mb at hour 3!

This is definitely in the realm of possibility as Dorian will be traversing over the Gulf Stream Current tomorrow.

[ronjon]

This is a mesoscale model WRF at 12z. These aren't used for cyclone tracking but it is eerily similar to HWRF.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-nmm&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019090112&fh=48

[Mouton]

Well, one piece of decent news, our barometers in extreme NE Fl are falling, first time below 30 inches in a few days. Perhaps an indication the ridge is moving away? If so, that could be the start of a move to the NW. Unfortunately, there are no steering currents to push this damn thing up, it is just bearing due west and it does not have much time to make a rather tight turn or there will be monumental loss of property and life if those who are told to leave scoff at the warnings. The storm must clear 79 W and it just seems to consistently blow past these last exit to disaster exit points.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Dorians eye completely visible through miami radar. Approximately 150 miles away.

Honestly...it looks like its bearing SW

Melbourne Radar long range is also got a pretty good bead on it, two different viewpoints.

At this point models dont mean didly when We got radar and so close to CONUS

[Stangfriik]

Thing to note here is that any further south landfall than what the 18z HWRF shows would involve some serious residential property damage. Say, just shy Palm Bay. Don't think this will make Orlando, though in any way.

N Brevard and New Smyrna/Daytona (which has grown a lot in the last few years) would get devastated there. Hurricane force wind would reach into East Orlando.

You're talking about beachside only right? We are 2 miles inland from the intracoastal in Daytona

[supercane4867]

Remember if Dorian does a ERC which seems likely at this point, its wind field will be much larger than what the models have shown here.

[CronkPSU]

Thing to note here is that any further south landfall than what the 18z HWRF shows would involve some serious residential property damage. Say, just shy Palm Bay. Don't think this will make Orlando, though in any way.

N Brevard and New Smyrna/Daytona (which has grown a lot in the last few years) would get devastated there. Hurricane force wind would reach into East Orlando.

You're talking about beachside only right? We are 2 miles inland from the intracoastal in Daytona

you could be experiencing 115 mph sustained winds or greater if that verified

[Tailspin]

 https://twitter.com/i/status/1168226646710788097

[MrJames]

18z GFS Ensembles


12z for comparison

[chris_fit]

18Z EURO

"The Turn" happens exactly at 45 hours, around 11am EST on Tuesday.... Put that in your calendars. Turn occurs on the north-west end of Grand Bahama Island

[chris_fit]

Looks ever so slightly W of the 12 Z