ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[boulderrr]

Weather Channel sharing very old cone

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1168302872922120192

And they're saying the ENTIRE coast of SC will be evacuated? They should be more precise and mention it's only certain evacuation zones.

[MacTavish]

Please also remember that, while the great forecasters at NHC rely heavily on models, they also don't abandon common sense. If Dorian reaches a certain point, they will issue warnings regardless of the models.

And they have been telling everyone to prepare themselves for days.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Perhaps lost in all the wobble watching and hand-wringing over the timing of the turn, but is it me or have there been NO updates from anyone on the Abacos Islands since the eye passed over?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Judging by videos the damage is catastrophic. I wouldnt expect any communication till somebody flies out that way

[shah83]

Is it possible that we're having an immaculate EWC ala Irma or Haiyan?

[NFLnut]

I'm going to give it 18 hours to turn before I say model fail. But at this point in time, the next 6-12 hours is going to be a nail biter for everyone from Palm Beach to Charleston, SC.

NHC doesn't really have it turning until 36 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/B0RGZA5.png

Well Dorian better stall right now

It's not forecast to stall until it reaches Freeport.

[johngaltfla]

Is it jogging SW???

Or is that my eyes

Looks like a wobble WSW, but give it 6 hours and see the position. I still think a pass over or just south of Freeport is within the realm of possibility only due to the ridge not collapsing or weakening yet.

[tropicwatch]

During Dorians existence it has past several previous forecast points where it was thought to turn more northerly. It has also past points where it was suppose to be going a lot slower. It also appears to have picked up some speed again. All of these things are very concerning. Current forecast not withstanding.

[AutoPenalti]

Guys, for the love of potatoes, it’s a wobble. Yes, every wobble counts but if you average these movements out. It’s definitely due west.

[supercane4867]

IR and WV loop

[johngaltfla]

Perhaps lost in all the wobble watching and hand-wringing over the timing of the turn, but is it me or have there been NO updates from anyone on the Abacos Islands since the eye passed over?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Judging by videos the damage is catastrophic. I wouldnt expect any communication till somebody flies out that way

TWC has a satellite crew on the ground but winds still gusting above 100 mph so no way they will set up just yet.

[chaser1]

South Floridians are very tired of the “wolf cry” hurricane situation.


This time however, the local media including John morales have almost “vouched” that its turning north.

if it doesnt, that kind of misleading “confidence” should come with a resignation.

The way he spoke was arrogant and as if he felt there wasnt any “reasonable” possibility of it NOT going north without hitting Florida.

OR.....

here's a

crazy thought -

Maybe just maybe

Dorian will

just simply

turn north.

So, you're quick to suggest a firing squad if he's wrong (per guidance from the National Hurricane Center forecast), are you going to be man enough
and award him and the forecasters at NHC if they're correct? F.Y.I., NHC has clearly suggested that those along the coast should remain vigil in the event
that a more westward motion result in the eye passing closer to or even onshore. Bro, chill and take a Xanax

Maybe try typing while skipping three lines now?

[mutley]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

It's not forecast to have any northern component to its movement until sometime tomorrow. Until about 2pm tomorrow, the NHC has it going almost due west in the 5pm forecast.

For that to be valid, it also has to slow to the crawl they've been predicting. Right?

[1900hurricane]

Pressure definitely up a little. Not sure if it's due to land or structural.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is it possible that we're having an immaculate EWC ala Irma or Haiyan?

I can’t see why it wouldn’t be possible, but considering how rare it is, I would say it really isn’t likely. It could have the opportunity to restrengthen if it completes quickly enough though

[supercane4867]

Pressure definitely up a little. Not sure if it's due to land or structural.

I believe it's due to land and upwelling. The waters between the islands are not as deep

[ronjon]

Please also remember that, while the great forecasters at NHC rely heavily on models, they also don't abandon common sense. If Dorian reaches a certain point, they will issue warnings regardless of the models.

And they have been telling everyone to prepare themselves for days.

I think they already have. Hurricane warnings from Jupiter inlet to Brevard/Volusia county line.

[johngaltfla]

IR and WV loop

https://i.imgur.com/Nzn6FQQ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/7O9fplZ.gif

If the eye wall color on the WV shifts to plaid, I'm out of here.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Am I imagining things or could you see the pinwheel eye effect in the eye for a little bit there? If you remember isabel's when it was annular. I HATE using the word annular at all unless there's enough evidence to support it but it just looks interesting lol


[Tweet] https://twitter.com/danlindsey77/status/1168269979625459712


[/Tweet]

[leggy77]

Perhaps lost in all the wobble watching and hand-wringing over the timing of the turn, but is it me or have there been NO updates from anyone on the Abacos Islands since the eye passed over?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Judging by videos the damage is catastrophic. I wouldnt expect any communication till somebody flies out that way

and most of those videos were during the calm of the eye, the worst part hadn't arrived yet.

[chaser1]

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

It's not forecast to have any northern component to its movement until sometime tomorrow. Until about 2pm tomorrow, the NHC has it going almost due west in the 5pm forecast.

For that to be valid, it also has to slow to the crawl they've been predicting. Right?

Yes, well maybe lol. I can just as easily see it slowing down to 2-4 knots and at some point begin a gradual turn more NW'ward. Heck, there's been so many past storms that seemed to continue due west against the forecast but all the while begin a series of slow stair-steps. Often times one can look at the satellite presentation and practically see the overall "lean" of the clouds or shape of the over all convection ahead of a turn more in that direction.