ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

I'm going to give it 18 hours to turn before I say model fail. But at this point in time, the next 6-12 hours is going to be a nail biter for everyone from Palm Beach to Charleston, SC.

NHC doesn't really have it turning until 36 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/B0RGZA5.png

My concern is that it takes the southern route south of Freeport within that 18 hour window. But we shall see as the science is not that exact.

Even the HWRF has it going north of Grand Bahama. If it goes over the entire island or even dips south, then yeah I'd start to get a little more worried especially along and north of Cape Canaveral.

[supercane4867]

Sunset loop

[nativefloridian]

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

I'm going to give it 18 hours to turn before I say model fail. But at this point in time, the next 6-12 hours is going to be a nail biter for everyone from Palm Beach to Charleston, SC.

NHC doesn't really have it turning until 36 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/B0RGZA5.png

Well Dorian better stall right now

[jasons2k]

South Floridians are very tired of the “wolf cry” hurricane situation.


This time however, the local media including John morales have almost “vouched” that its turning north.

if it doesnt, that kind of misleading “confidence” should come with a resignation.

The way he spoke was arrogant and as if he felt there wasnt any “reasonable” possibility of it NOT going north without hitting Florida.

Just follow NHC as your most reliable source for information.

Anyone with any decent IQ and cognitive ability can simply come here and take all the data. You guys are not giving outcomes or implying anything... simply data interpretation.

I read, i watch the news and i draw my own conclusion... here it is.

to many “new” variables with dorian and its almost inpossible to track accurately... someones political i fluenced interpretation at the NHC due to “financial risk vs statistical outcome” is a far cry for believing them.

Welcome to Storm2k.org.

We regard the NHC as unbiased professionals. Another post like this and you will have a quick exit out of here.

[KC7NEC]

Here is something I calculated about the turn. The turn is not expected until tomorrow as it passes over Freeport. That is about 85 miles from the Florida coast. With the current speed of 5 mph that is 17 hours before this monster potentially could arrive if it doesn't turn. Even if it slows its likely less than 24 hours and way less until TS winds arrive..... just someth9ing to think about.

We wont know IF its making the turn until we are less than 24 hours from a potential Florida landfall.

[birdwomn]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

Sit back and look at this satellite image and think that most people in South Florida aren't really worried about this storm right now. That's a pretty crazy example of how confident people are in hurricane forecasts.

In my mind, your statement is very true and very concerning - given that hurricane forecasting is still a VERY inexact science.

[NFLnut]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

I'm going to give it 18 hours to turn before I say model fail. But at this point in time, the next 6-12 hours is going to be a nail biter for everyone from Palm Beach to Charleston, SC.

Exactly. The NHC forecast is for it to move almost due west until 2pm tomorrow. Then, it will take a LONG time for it to slowly turn NW and then north. I get that everyone is freaking out that it is moving west faster than they think and if it passes west of Freeport it gets closer to FL and there are more than a few IFs, but we have a little more time before everyone should start second-guessing.

[ozonepete]

South Floridians are very tired of the “wolf cry” hurricane situation.


This time however, the local media including John morales have almost “vouched” that its turning north.

if it doesnt, that kind of misleading “confidence” should come with a resignation.

The way he spoke was arrogant and as if he felt there wasnt any “reasonable” possibility of it NOT going north without hitting Florida.

Just follow NHC as your most reliable source for information.

Anyone with any decent IQ and cognitive ability can simply come here and take all the data. You guys are not giving outcomes or implying anything... simply data interpretation.

I read, i watch the news and i draw my own conclusion... here it is.

to many “new” variables with dorian and its almost inpossible to track accurately... someones political i fluenced interpretation at the NHC due to “financial risk vs statistical outcome” is a far cry for believing them.

What are you saying? It's not at all clear. Is this a knock on the NHC?

[underthwx]

The only thing that matters now, is each and everyone of you, and your families well being... hindsight will be 20/20 after the cyclone passes...i personally feel the emphasis is on removing yourselves from harms way...there is no valid reason to remain...study the storm from afar...yall have provided priceless clarity, during a time of emergency...im grateful to be a part of the community....be well

[supercane4867]

50 frame VIS loop with no lines

[johngaltfla]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherOwen/status/1168301637867360256

[BlowHard]

So..its already burning through some of the turning checkpoints....

Anybody else got a bad feeling

Been having a bad feeling with this one since it missed PR.

Ditto

Sometimes I think it's just _other_hurricanes_PTSD

[ronjon]

Some decent rain bands not far off the Florida SE coast.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/fl/key-west/amx

[sma10]

Please also remember that, while the great forecasters at NHC rely heavily on models, they also don't abandon common sense. If Dorian reaches a certain point, they will issue warnings regardless of the models.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

EWRC is definitely trying to happen but something fishy is going on with it. Radar shows the outer eyewall isn't contracting and wrapping around. Inner eyewall is steady as a rock. Cloud tops are cooling too.

[Highteeld]

Weather Channel sharing very old cone

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1168302872922120192

[NFLnut]

Maybe slightly S of due west

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d187d0c91e3366aa72c863fcedb7f56d155485ab22c82c0e0c39b0baa339f5bf.gif

I sure don't see any northern component to Dorian's movement. And it sure hasn't stalled.

It's not forecast to have any northern component to its movement until sometime tomorrow. Until about 2pm tomorrow, the NHC has it going almost due west in the 5pm forecast.

[SconnieCane]

Perhaps lost in all the wobble watching and hand-wringing over the timing of the turn, but is it me or have there been NO updates from anyone on the Abaco Islands since the eye passed over?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is it jogging SW???

Or is that my eyes

[hohnywx]

Mandatory evacuations has been ordered for the entire South Carolina coast beginning tomorrow at noon.

https://www.live5news.com/2019/09/01/wa ... ian-preps/