ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

If it wobbles WSW anytime soon then it could bounce off the south coast of Grand Bahama and cause it to go into or get closer to Florida. Just a thought.

https://i.imgur.com/EYBSQRb.gif

A hair S of due west motion is happening...

Indeed there are some hair south of west wobbles as some of the model guidance hinted at. Note the GFS moves this more W-WNW.

We talked about this yesterday:

John Hope wisdom: “Where the cirrus clouds go, the storm will go...”

I see them going wnw right now Turn coming?

[Ken711]

https://i.imgur.com/iFxyNWs.png

That looks like a secondary eyewall has formed? I may well be wrong tho as IR shows nothing to signify EWRC

Definite second eyewall forming on radar. Good thing recon is heading in now, as this might be our last chance to determine dorians true peak strength

The expanded wind field following and eyeball replacement won't be good news though.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

So..its already burning through some of the turning checkpoints....

Anybody else got a bad feeling

[RL3AO]

The latest shear map

https://i.imgur.com/AQ6k6Ym.gif

I am still pretty new to tracking but how has it possible reached and maintained category 5 strength with 20 kts of shear over the core?

Because those maps can be pretty misleading and oversimplified. A strong hurricane has an anticyclone at upper levels and a cyclone at lower levels which by definition means the winds are strong and in opposite directions at those two levels = strong shear. But when you "remove" the winds of the hurricane, you'll see there is practically no shear.

[supercane4867]

In the case of an eyewall replacement, winds usually start to level off before pressure does. Pressure may continue to fall until the outer eyewall really begins to contract

[Hurrilurker]

I would have thought they'd want to sample the eye while it was between islands but I guess not.

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/EYBSQRb.gif

A hair S of due west motion is happening...

Indeed there are some hair south of west wobbles as some of the model guidance hinted at. Note the GFS moves this more W-WNW.

We talked about this yesterday:

John Hope wisdom: “Where the cirrus clouds go, the storm will go...”

I see them going wnw right now Turn coming?

I look at the largest arm that isn't symmetrical to the rest of the system and that is the one that is connected to the SW quadrant and it is pointing towards Miami and the Keys.

[Blinhart]

So..its already burning through some of the turning checkpoints....

Anybody else got a bad feeling

Been having a bad feeling with this one since it missed PR.

[supercane4867]

That looks like a secondary eyewall has formed? I may well be wrong tho as IR shows nothing to signify EWRC

Definite second eyewall forming on radar. Good thing recon is heading in now, as this might be our last chance to determine dorians true peak strength

What time will recon be in the eye?


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Recon about to do a NW-SE pass right now. We’ll know in the next 30min or so

[1900hurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/iFxyNWs.png

That's an outer eyewall.

Still in the very early stage of a potential ERC. Most likely it’s continuing to intensify for now

I suspect it's probably near peak intensity now. Not sure it has intensified much the past five hours. We'll see though with recon on the way.

[chris_fit]

I dont know if my eyes are tired or what, but I see a S of due W movement last 30 min or so.

[Maryellen46]

So..its already burning through some of the turning checkpoints....

Anybody else got a bad feeling

Yes I have a sense of dread about this. I hope to god I’m wrong but I think Florida is in big trouble.

[hipshot]

That's an outer eyewall.

Still in the very early stage of a potential ERC. Most likely it’s continuing to intensify for now

I suspect it's probably near peak intensity now. Not sure it has intensified much the past five hours. We'll see though with recon on the way.

What the heck is "peak intensity" and how is it calculated or derived?

[Michele B]

The latest shear map

https://i.imgur.com/AQ6k6Ym.gif

Why isn’t the low pressure system in GoM “pulling” Dorian toward it?

Or is it?

Kinda looks like it is.

[RL3AO]

The actual shear over the storm is less than 5 knots.

[supercane4867]

Maybe slightly S of due west

[lrak]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktV0f-ZF7lc

this is a great video. Prayers!

[KBBOCA]

So you’re telling people to ignore what the NHC director said? That anyone in the cone needs to pay attention and be prepared? I realize you’re a meteorologist, but that’s shameful. You of all people should know better than that.

He has stated that everyone should be already prepared but he does not expect hurricane impacts to Florida. Hope he's right...

What I'm saying is that the error cone says nothing about potential impacts or current forecast uncertainty. It is merely a statistical average error over the past 5 seasons, nothing more. Severe weather conditions often extend well outside that cone. I would be best if the NHC eliminated the cone and used a probabilistic area based on current model guidance, but even that would not say anything about potential impacts. Pay attention to the NHC forecasts, not the cone.

I'm always surprised how underused the different storm threat & impact graphics are. I think they do a lot better job of communicating the different dangers of surge, wind, rain/flash flooding.

Here's an example:
 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1168241815041953792

[MrJames]

The actual shear over the storm is less than 5 knots.

https://i.imgur.com/phuSV0D.png

Thanks. Is there a shear a way to check wind shear forecasts in terms of weakening the storm? The 5PM discussion mentions stronger shear in the next few days.

[1900hurricane]

Still in the very early stage of a potential ERC. Most likely it’s continuing to intensify for now

I suspect it's probably near peak intensity now. Not sure it has intensified much the past five hours. We'll see though with recon on the way.

What the heck is "peak intensity" and how is it calculated or derived?

Peak intensity is simply how strong it gets. Basically my personal forecast is that it isn't going to intensify very much from here. Of course, take that with a grain of salt. Tropical cyclones have humbled me many times.