ATL: DORIAN - Models

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5781 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:55 pm

shah83 wrote:The 06z run of GFS is further west, however, that run has stronger first and second troughs and weaker heights west. If at this late date you're looking at trends, I'd say it's really west. For example, if the verification busts south of the initial 30-40hr run of 18z GZ, you're going to see landfall in FL, holding synoptics of 18z constant.

What level are you looking at? I’m looking at the 500mb level, and the ridging looks slightly stronger to the north and east than the 12z, but I could be wrong
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5782 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:58 pm

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Trend at point when turn begins...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5783 Postby edu2703 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:05 pm

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1168282019308195840


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5784 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:10 pm

Well it is GFS so who knows

Im only here cus UKMET still has runs over my house
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5785 Postby shah83 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:22 pm

Landfall in Nova Scotia in hour 138. Love a 968mb humdinger in the summer instead of the winter! This run would make Dorian worse than Hurricane Juan! Hurricane Igor on Prince Edward's Island was a rain thing, but Dorian might even be worse than that!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5786 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:24 pm

HMON showing 891mb at hour 3! :double:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5787 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:26 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5788 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:27 pm


:eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5789 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:50 pm

18z HMON our to 39hr no northerly movement yet

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5790 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:58 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Ukmet has been all over the place. The ensembles map keeps calling for this W or WSW movement and it hasn't happened run after run...
its been heading west, how much more west can west be?


Well, it could be ummmm West of West. Hmmm, now that would be pretty friggin' west, right? :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5791 Postby DestinHurricane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:05 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5792 Postby chaser1 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:07 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:HMON showing 891mb at hour 3! :double:


These models :roflmao:
Yep, that might be reaching for Cat 7 LOL?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5793 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:08 pm

shah83 wrote:Landfall in Nova Scotia in hour 138. Love a 968mb humdinger in the summer instead of the winter! This run would make Dorian worse than Hurricane Juan! Hurricane Igor on Prince Edward's Island was a rain thing, but Dorian might even be worse than that!


Yeah people in Nova Scotia are going to have to start paying attention to this soon if it hugs the coast and doesn't get pulled out far enough east.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5794 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:16 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5795 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:16 pm

Both HWRF and HMON going in for landfalls near the Cape. They're consistent, if anything
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5796 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:17 pm

HWRF trending slower and a little W
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5797 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:21 pm

HWRF a little further south than last time, but landfall Cape Canaveral
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5798 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:21 pm

Trend and Landfall

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5799 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:23 pm

shah83 wrote:Really shown hour 60 and 66. This is west of the 06z GFS. I am now very interested in seeing the HWRF and HMON 18z now...


Tuesday night landfall near Melbourne, FL with 140 mph winds.

 https://twitter.com/WeatherOwen/status/1168301637867360256




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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5800 Postby shah83 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 6:24 pm

Thing to note here is that any further south landfall than what the 18z HWRF shows would involve some serious residential property damage. Say, just shy Palm Bay. Don't think this will make Orlando, though in any way.
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