ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Last few frames appear to show Dorian drifting SW. Could be a wobble? IDK.

Noticed that as well but there was zero chance I was going to mention it. We will call it an optical illusion.

Looks like the most inhabited part of Freeport will have to ride out the southern eyewall.
Probably a three pixel wobble north by then but that isn't going to help much.

[Highteeld]

[Portastorm]

MODERATOR NOTE

Am seeing some snipey posts from a few of you to each other. Easy gang ... e-a-s-y. Be respectful of each other because you don't want to earn a vacation from the forum, especially right now, do you?!

[EquusStorm]

The stadium effect near sunset is GORGEOUS but in an apocalyptically terrible location.

[CrazyC83]

https://i.imgur.com/8NmetPO.png

I'm wondering if we will go sub-900 when Recon gets back? It looks to be only stronger now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Any guess as to where on the coast?

Personally I don't thi k guessing is a good idea at all given the intensity of this situation.

Stop reading and it won't bother you.

Have you seen how many guests are reading this board right now? Saying “stop reading” doesn’t stop the flow of misinformation

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1168282414587817987

[nativefloridian]

Um, wait a minute. Your question is worded very weirdly. Are you asking if most of us think it's going to hit Florida or are you asking if we think it's not?

It doesn't matter for you. I already know your thoughts and they are in cement. But for the benefit of others, I was asking who believes it will hit the Florida coast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

So, my opinion is that it will stay off the FL coast. But I also believe that margin, from eye to coast, may be less than one hundred miles. Maybe as low as 50-75. Areas of FL will, IMO, see hurricane force winds, tornadoes, flooding rains, and significant to extreme storm surge. TS force winds will likely extend a good bit inland.

100 mile margin, maybe less. Wouldn't take much to knock a few zeroes off that and put this thing on land.

H. Andrew you nailed it on the head and that has been a frustration for me and not just with this particular storm. I try to understand how they can put watches/warnings from one particular point to another, like drawing a line in the sand, yet IMO there are those outside of those designated areas that will feel the storm's effects, particularly with Dorian. For example....why isn't Miami-Dade County at least under a Tropical Storm watch, yet directly offshore there is a Tropical Storm warning in that area (and I live in Broward). I just have a hard time understanding how such decisions are made when, in this case, Tropical Storm force winds extend out about 140 miles from the eye. Sorry for venting, but I'm beyond frustrated as I'm sure many others are. Since 1957 I've been through many storms/hurricanes in South Florida but yet it seems to me when it comes to Florida there's many variables, whereas in other locations/states the NHC seems to be spot on. Okay, I'm done. Thanks for listening

[ObsessedMiami]

John Morales just gave a literal 10 minute monologue about how this storm is going to turn and nothing bad is going to happen in Dade and Broward and MAYBE worst case scenario hurricane force winds in the upper corner of Palm Beach County. “They might have winds of 110 and that’s what you want to put shutters up for.”
He is really dismissive of people’s concerns. He is probably right but he grinds my gears as he speaks from MountOlympus, especially since he blew Dorians dissipation after PR

You absolutely can't count them out, especially when there is so much at stake.

John Morales has been very disappointing from day 1 with this storm, yesterday morales tweeted about how important it was for him to watch the liverpool match..i have moved on to craig setzer, still follow morales but he busted and shows too much tude.

You put it better than me and agree 100%

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/8NmetPO.png

I'm wondering if we will go sub-900 when Recon gets back? It looks to be only stronger now.

The CDO has grown significantly

[psyclone]

It seems to me that inner core changes/eyewall replacement cycle potential has implications for florida just as important as subtle track changes since such an event could lead to a reduction in max intensity but a larger wind radii that may actually increase the potential of higher end storm force or hurricane force winds at the coast... even if the center holds that offshore track.. It makes me very interested in speed, direction AND structural changes

[Ptarmigan]

It seems to me that inner core changes/eyewall replacement cycle potential has implications for florida just as important as subtle track changes since such an event could lead to a reduction in max intensity but a larger wind radii that may actually increase the potential of higher end storm force or hurricane force winds at the coast... even if the center holds that offshore track.. It makes me very interested in speed, direction AND structural changes

A large hurricane is more concerning.

[CronkPSU]

It seems to me that inner core changes/eyewall replacement cycle potential has implications for florida just as important as subtle track changes since such an event could lead to a reduction in max intensity but a larger wind radii that may actually increase the potential of higher end storm force or hurricane force winds at the coast... even if the center holds that offshore track.. It makes me very interested in speed, direction AND structural changes

yeah I said the same thing earlier...we could be looking at a COMPLETELY different storm in 24-36 hours

[ROCK]

MODERATOR NOTE

Am seeing some snipey posts from a few of you to each other. Easy gang ... e-a-s-y. Be respectful of each other because you don't want to earn a vacation from the forum, especially right now, do you?!

I don’t think I ever have taken a vacation but yeah tough to read the new peeps.

[Blown Away]

If it wobbles WSW anytime soon then it could bounce off the south coast of Grand Bahama and cause it to go into or get closer to Florida. Just a thought.

A hair S of due west motion is happening...

[GCANE]

UL HIgh now positioned over NE GOM
Some afternoon popups over west FL eroding this a bit.
Steering not as strong as compared 6 hrs ago.
Expect popups to rain out shortly.
Diurnal cooling should build the UL High back up overnight.
Not seeing the trough doing much with this.

[KWT]

https://i.imgur.com/8NmetPO.png

I'm wondering if we will go sub-900 when Recon gets back? It looks to be only stronger now.

Its holding up very well considering there is now land in the way and the waters are shallower around the islands as well. I suspect its probably steady state at the moment, but who knows, it was still clearly on a strengthening trend into its landfall.

[Michele B]

Just out of curiosity. Does anyone truly believe that Dorian is not going to make the turn, and go right into Florida's coast somewhere?

I’ll admit it. I’m skeptical.

Personally,’when I look at “trofs” and “ridges” I don’t see a big dip that looks like it’s going to pick this thing up.

[psyclone]

It seems to me that inner core changes/eyewall replacement cycle potential has implications for florida just as important as subtle track changes since such an event could lead to a reduction in max intensity but a larger wind radii that may actually increase the potential of higher end storm force or hurricane force winds at the coast... even if the center holds that offshore track.. It makes me very interested in speed, direction AND structural changes

yeah I said the same thing earlier...we could be looking at a COMPLETELY different storm in 24-36 hours

The irony is that such an event would lead to "Dorian weakening" headlines while the net danger to the east coast could actually increase!

[skillz305]

Feel like a Florida landfall is very likely if the cone shift anymore west...