ATL: DORIAN - Models

[USTropics]

12z UKM closeup

https://i.imgur.com/RI21exE.png

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

Synoptically, what at this point could cause the wsw/sw motion UKMET is showing?

A few possible factors, primarily if the first trough were to theoretically have little influence on Dorian to stall him, ridging could build back in temporarily to drive the storm a bit SW until the second trough comes down to turn Dorian north. There's also a disturbance in the GOM that could influence steering currents to draw Dorian more westward if it were to deepen (not currently forecasted). I would put the possibilities of such a SW motion as low, but not nonexistent.

[kevin mathis]

So if UKmet is right, we will get a SW dip in the next 12 hours.

Synoptically, what at this point could cause the wsw/sw motion UKMET is showing?

I don't have enough knowledge to anser that. Probably has to do with ridging

Perhaps a cyclonic loop. Storms sometimes perform these when at a stall, or a sudden change in steering is being felt by the cyclone.

[shah83]

18z GFS initializes stronger ridge, shallower trough.

[Sambucol]

18z GFS initializes stronger ridge, shallower trough.

How would that affect the track?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

18z GFS initializes stronger ridge, shallower trough.

How would that affect the track?

West

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

18z GFS initializes stronger ridge, shallower trough.

How would that affect the track?

i believe if the trough is shallow it doesnt allow the turn northward. stronger ridge sends it more west i believe

[sponger]

18z GFS initializes stronger ridge, shallower trough.

How would that affect the track?

Wester. My new word of the day!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Models running soon. New data in them?

[shah83]

hour 30 is sort of ominous, has the look of the first trough having much less impact on eroding ridge.

[cjrciadt]

Never thought I would see 185kts on the Intensity chart 200 miles off FL lol!!!
https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/0 ... latest.png

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Never thought I would see 185kts on the Intensity chart 200 miles off FL lol!!!
https://tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/0 ... latest.png

My grandmother could tell you about the horrors of 1935 Hurricane living in what is now port richey. I saw a dozen photos, nothing was left. They had a gust of 170mph apparently at the local weather station

[sponger]

GFS ridging breaking down on schedule at hour 36. Followed by a NW jog at 48 as it partially fills back in? Looks like Matthew part II

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS legacy with quite a large shift west at hour 48, ruh roh.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

hour 30 is sort of ominous, has the look of the first trough having much less impact on eroding ridge.

it wouldnt be the first time they have overestimated a trough and underestimated the ridge. i recall a couple years ago it was running joke on the board about the “magic trough” that was supposed to erode the ridge away and it didnt happen. granted not as much was at stake but it isnt unusual for this type of battle to be going on

[AutoPenalti]

GFS ridging breaking down on schedule at hour 36.

The slowdown will occur at hour 36... yikes.

[chris_fit]

[mutley]

GFS ridging breaking down on schedule at hour 36. Followed by a NW jog at 48 as it partially fills back in? Looks like Matthew part II

At 36 hours is on schedule?

[shah83]

The 06z run of GFS is further west, however, that run has stronger first and second troughs and weaker heights west. If at this late date you're looking at trends, I'd say it's really west. For example, if the verification busts south of the initial 30-40hr run of 18z GZ, you're going to see landfall in FL, holding synoptics of 18z constant.

[shah83]

Really shown hour 60 and 66. This is west of the 06z GFS. I am now very interested in seeing the HWRF and HMON 18z now...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Still offshore

Buts it's a trend you don't want to see