ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5721 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:49 pm



Looks like there are 2 ensemble members West Palm and south as opposed to 0 on the 00Z run.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5722 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:50 pm




Dorian is currently on the extreme R side of that cone, so a more easterly track might be the future?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5723 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:51 pm

12Z UK ensembles anybody?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5724 Postby shawn6304 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:52 pm

Blown Away wrote:



Dorian is currently on the extreme R side of that cone, so a more easterly track might be the future?


The right side? My understanding is that dorian is west and south of all models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5725 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:54 pm

shawn6304 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:



Dorian is currently on the extreme R side of that cone, so a more easterly track might be the future?


The right side? My understanding is that dorian is west and south of all models



Look at the 12z grouping and then go look at where Dorian is currently.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5726 Postby NCWeatherChic » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:56 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:Is it looking worse for N.C.?


It's too far out to call. As large as Dorian is, the effects will be felt far from the center. I too am in NC and watching closely. I'm thankful I'm not in the Bahamas though. Praying for them. :(
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5727 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z UK ensembles anybody?


Should be out in a few minutes, slightly delayed due to the increase in global storm numbers (91L products were created first, no idea why).
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5728 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:57 pm

Blown Away wrote:



Dorian is currently on the extreme R side of that cone, so a more easterly track might be the future?

I thought it was south of the track?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5729 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:57 pm

Blown Away wrote:
shawn6304 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:

Dorian is currently on the extreme R side of that cone, so a more easterly track might be the future?


The right side? My understanding is that dorian is west and south of all models



Look at the 12z grouping and then go look at where Dorian is currently.


Based on IR, I'd say Dorian is basically in the center of those initial plot points.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5730 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:57 pm

12z UKMET ensembles:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5731 Postby MrJames » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:59 pm

12z UKM closeup

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5732 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:02 pm

Is that a shift east on the UKMET?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5733 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:03 pm

Ukmet has been all over the place. The ensembles map keeps calling for this W or WSW movement and it hasn't happened run after run...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5734 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:04 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Is that a shift east on the UKMET?


Yes, 12z operational shifted east, but once again many ensembles showing different solution than what is happening..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5735 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:08 pm

Blown Away wrote:Ukmet has been all over the place. The ensembles map keeps calling for this W or WSW movement and it hasn't happened run after run...
was never supposed to happen until it entered the bahamas.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5736 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:08 pm

Blown Away wrote:Ukmet has been all over the place. The ensembles map keeps calling for this W or WSW movement and it hasn't happened run after run...
its been heading west, how much more west can west be?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5737 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:08 pm

Blown Away wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Is that a shift east on the UKMET?


Yes, 12z operational shifted east, but once again many ensembles showing different solution than what is happening..


what is making all the models and ensembles have such a difficult time with dorian? is it the trough vs ridge uncertainty?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5738 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:10 pm

Lets hope the trend doesn't continue by the Euro ensembles. :double:
Another long night tonight waiting for the models.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5739 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:12 pm

Socalhurcnegirl227 wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Is that a shift east on the UKMET?


Yes, 12z operational shifted east, but once again many ensembles showing different solution than what is happening..


what is making all the models and ensembles have such a difficult time with dorian? is it the trough vs ridge uncertainty?


Those factors plus the Gulf Low. Many of the models are having a hard time projecting just how much the Gulf Low will erode the ridge (how strong or organized it will become). I'm being very simplistic here but in general terms, the Gulf Low is the fly in the ointment.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#5740 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:12 pm

With long periods of no steering currents it’s no wonder all the models are having trouble with it, just like the humans (including experts) are. Just too many factors during that stall period than can result in large track changes.

I really don’t envy the NHC right now, this is about as tough a scenario as you could imagine, with incredibly high stakes.
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