ATL: DORIAN - Models

[boca]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

[DestinHurricane]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

Yes, can't rule anything out

[SapphireSea]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

Looking at the shortwave energy out of Illinois and into KY I'd bet on no. It is going to turn maybe sooner rather than later.

[AutoPenalti]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

Looking at the shortwave energy out of Illinois and into KY I'd bet on no. It is going to turn maybe sooner rather than later.

That trough has been noticeably weaker and flatter on a
Runs.

[KC7NEC]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

Yes, and in the past Cat 5 Storms have done this exact thing defying the models and expected interactions with the environment.

[AdamFirst]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

I don't think it will continue to barrel west into Palm Beach County. I expect a hook toward the north, the only question is how far it gets west before the hook begins. I could easily be wrong though.

[Nimbus]

A possible NC landfall is still a good ways away. So things can still change drastically. Especially with the ton of uncertainty before the turn away from florida still not being known correctly.

Dorian is probably the strongest hurricane the models have ever dealt with. Strong storms eventually amplify troughs, so once a cat 5 starts to turn north its usually the result of a more substantial steering element that would be more likely to recurve. Recon has been sampling the steering layer(s) near the Florida panhandle and confirmed light winds from the south and SSW there, and there is some surface pressure trouphing NW of Dorian currently. Once Dorian stalls the next motion should be NW, we haven't seen any model runs with track loops south then southeast.

The Water vapor loop is pretty chaotic so it must be hard to model at any level of detail.

[SapphireSea]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

Looking at the shortwave energy out of Illinois and into KY I'd bet on no. It is going to turn maybe sooner rather than later.

That trough has been noticeably weaker and flatter on a
Runs.

In models it seems to be the case. In WV you can see its weakened but still quite defined. The upper level ridge above Dorian has all but split into a weaker west side and forecasted stronger east side favoring a stall and sharp turn

[toad strangler]

A turn NW and or N is going to happen. Modeling isn’t going to blow that. It’s the where that means everything.

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1168241201432203265

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

Yes. Sometimes models get it wrong this far out like charley, Jeanne or Irma...but its unlikely.

Hence why we say to keep a clear eye on updates while you are drinking beer tommorrow

[TheDreamTraveler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1168242194249125888

[Secret_Meteorologist]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

Yes, can't rule anything out

I must say, this is misleading. Dorian will certainly turn. The NHC, independent forecasting institutions, various academic professionals, and all of the world’s hurricane models are in no disagreement as to whether this happens, rather only when it does so.

Today’s shortwave trough over the Ohio Valley begins the initial erosion of the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and we shall see a gradual WNW heading take hold along with a slowdown in forward speed over the next 24 to 36 hours. Subsequently, Tuesday’s more prominent and pronounced mid-level trough over the Great Lakes (moving eastward) will further erode the periphery of the ridge, clearing the way for a more NW, N, and eventually NE heading as Dorian rounds this eroded western periphery. There is no scenario where Dorian proceeds due west indefinitely (for many days) and simply ignores all known properties of atmospheric thermodynamics. Is it fair to say Florida is still very much at risk? Absolutely. Is it reasonable to suggest a due west trek into the Gulf of Mexico and beyond? We have no data to reasonably suggest this as even a scenario of remote probability.

[shawn6304]

While the decrease in the chance of a florida landfall is occurring, I think there is an increase chance for a Northern Carolina hit occurring. So I'm not sure why the NHC isn't shifting the tracking even further west in the North Carolina area, since many reputable models are showing a brief landfall in NC. I just don't get it. Even the latest EURO model shows that.....

A possible NC landfall is still a good ways away. So things can still change drastically. Especially with the ton of uncertainty before the turn away from florida still not being known correctly.

Dorian is probably the strongest hurricane the models have ever dealt with.
Strong storms eventually amplify troughs, so once a cat 5 starts to turn north its usually the result of a more substantial steering element that would be more likely to recurve.
Recon has been sampling the steering layer(s) near the Florida panhandle and confirmed light winds from the south and SSW there, and there is some surface pressure trouphing NW of Dorian currently.
Once Dorian stalls the next motion should be NW, we haven't seen any model runs with track loops south then southeast.

The Water vapor loop is pretty chaotic so it must be hard to model at any level of detail.

That might be one of the wisest things I've read all day, gotta love it when were sure we know everything reality will kick us in the teeth!

[LarryWx]

Looking at the 18Z position on the main 12Z dynamic model runs, the actual position (we're almost at 18Z now) is pretty much dead-on it appears to me. Any other opinions?

Well, that's what I thought until I just saw the 12Z Euro's 18Z position, which is about 30 miles too far NNE. The Euro has it clearly north of that Bahaman island whereas it is really on the northern edge.

This was the point that was made about the Euro being 30 miles too far north. Is this valid? On my phone and can’t check

After looking at Tropical Tidbits and weathermodels.com, I've decided to retract this about the 12Z Euro's 12 hour position being 30 miles too far NNE. It may very well still be too far NNE, but I'm now thinking my provider (private) map may have mislead me or is off some and that the 12Z Euro probably isn't as far off as that. I do feel confident that the 12Z initialized somewhat to the NE of the 0Z run's 12 hour position. But was that initialization too far NE vs actual? Well, after looking with a fine tooth comb at Tidbits maps (it gives you lat and long) and comparing to the 8 AM NHC, it actually may be an accurate initialization.

[Blinhart]

Is it possible that Dorian can keep on going west and not turn?

Yes, can't rule anything out

I must say, this is misleading. Dorian will certainly turn. The NHC, independent forecasting institutions, various academic professionals, and all of the world’s hurricane models are in no disagreement as to whether this happens, rather only when it does so.

Today’s shortwave trough over the Ohio Valley begins the initial erosion of the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and we shall see a gradual WNW heading take hold along with a slowdown in forward speed over the next 24 to 36 hours. Subsequently, Tuesday’s more prominent and pronounced mid-level trough over the Great Lakes (moving eastward) will further erode the periphery of the ridge, clearing the way for a more NW, N, and eventually NE heading as Dorian rounds this eroded western periphery. There is no scenario where Dorian proceeds due west indefinitely (for many days) and simply ignores all known properties of atmospheric thermodynamics. Is it fair to say Florida is still very much at risk? Absolutely. Is it reasonable to suggest a due west trek into the Gulf of Mexico and beyond? We have no data to reasonably suggest this as even a scenario of remote probability.

I know you say you are a meteorologist but this model inconsistency and the storm going lower than everything given out, gives a lot of us no idea of what is going on, so we can contemplate that it will or wont.

[norva13x]

Yes, can't rule anything out

I must say, this is misleading. Dorian will certainly turn. The NHC, independent forecasting institutions, various academic professionals, and all of the world’s hurricane models are in no disagreement as to whether this happens, rather only when it does so.

Today’s shortwave trough over the Ohio Valley begins the initial erosion of the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, and we shall see a gradual WNW heading take hold along with a slowdown in forward speed over the next 24 to 36 hours. Subsequently, Tuesday’s more prominent and pronounced mid-level trough over the Great Lakes (moving eastward) will further erode the periphery of the ridge, clearing the way for a more NW, N, and eventually NE heading as Dorian rounds this eroded western periphery. There is no scenario where Dorian proceeds due west indefinitely (for many days) and simply ignores all known properties of atmospheric thermodynamics. Is it fair to say Florida is still very much at risk? Absolutely. Is it reasonable to suggest a due west trek into the Gulf of Mexico and beyond? We have no data to reasonably suggest this as even a scenario of remote probability.

I know you say you are a meteorologist but this model inconsistency and the storm going lower than everything given out, gives a lot of us no idea of what is going on, so we can contemplate that it will or wont.

Yes but it will still turn, we just don't know when. The problem is if the erosion doesn't happen as strongly or Dorian outraces it to a degree it may go into Florida before turning.

[MrJames]

12z


00z run for comparison

[emeraldislenc]

Is it looking worse for N.C.?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Is it looking worse for N.C.?

Nothing has changed