ATL: DORIAN - Models

[boca]

I’m just looking at the satellite and going by that not the models this time because they are just off.

[norva13x]

Although you never say never, I do feel better now that most if not all of the models are now trending east of Florida.......I'd probably give it about a 5% chance of it actually hitting Florida at this point. That's a great thing!

I'm not evil, I don't want it to hit Florida, or any state for that matter... I love the State of Florida and a hurricane of this strength would just devastate it and the economy. It would be bad news for everyone....I just wish our good friends in the Bahamas could have been spared .....

Half the cone is in Florida, I would say it is higher than 5%. However the east trends are good to see for sure. Hope it sticks.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Has anyone noticed that when new data from the upper air missions happen every model shifts farther west and some significantly

Yes but the shift still keeps away...unless it keeps creeping 5 miles every run

[Blizzard96x]

Looks like a big reason why the models have shifted east is because they show Dorian moving a little bit slower than yesterday's models... HWRF is much slower than it's 00z and 06z counterpart, resulting in a further east track.

[Sciencerocks]

I’m just looking at the satellite and going by that not the models this time because they are just off.

I agree! This monster is pumping up the ridge big time and will maintain most of its speed over the next 12 to 18 hours and continue mostly west. I'll be very close to the Florida coast.

[KC7NEC]

Although you never say never, I do feel better now that most if not all of the models are now trending east of Florida.......I'd probably give it about a 5% chance of it actually hitting Florida at this point. That's a great thing!

I'm not evil, I don't want it to hit Florida, or any state for that matter... I love the State of Florida and a hurricane of this strength would just devastate it and the economy. It would be bad news for everyone....I just wish our good friends in the Bahamas could have been spared .....

At this point would it be less damaging for it to make landfall or to drive along the coast as a Cat 4/5?

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I’m just looking at the satellite and going by that not the models this time because they are just off.

im genuinely not convinced at some sharp curve riding the coast just yet from watching the loops. to my untrained eye the current loop looks like he wants to continue to pull west and according to the fema update its still moving directly west.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON looks to be SW of 06z.

[La Sirena]

Although you never say never, I do feel better now that most if not all of the models are now trending east of Florida.......I'd probably give it about a 5% chance of it actually hitting Florida at this point. That's a great thing!

I'm not evil, I don't want it to hit Florida, or any state for that matter... I love the State of Florida and a hurricane of this strength would just devastate it and the economy. It would be bad news for everyone....I just wish our good friends in the Bahamas could have been spared .....

That would be great IF he was following the projected forecast.

[gatorcane]

HMON looks to be SW of 06z.

Yes SW shift:

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC - Landfall Central FL

[gatorcane]

HMON moving SW!

[chris_fit]

HMON going WSW @ 39-45 hours

[LarryWx]

Whereas 12z CMC is further east than 0Z in/near FL/GA and up to lower SC, it is further west and scrapes NC vs 0Z which was clearly offshore.

[chris_fit]

[JPmia]

one thing is for certain if we want to believe the models.. we better see a north of west motion... something to indicate the models are right.... like right now..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

it's just barely north of due west motion. this link helps show it.

[sma10]

I'm picturing a Far Side cartoon with three scientists staring at a computer screen with one of them saying "the models say it's going to turn away, thank goodness!" while simultaneously the building is being destroyed in the background

[WeatherEmperor]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/NN5LtjH.gif[]

Please stop. I cant take it anymore


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[chris_fit]

About 5 miles south of the 5am Track.... Negligible maybe?

[chris_fit]

HMON 54 hrs