On this loop....

[Anonymous]

A low or some kind of disturbence is spining up and convection is increasing. Put in fast motion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Steve H.]

There is a low near off the Honduras/Nicaragua border, where you can see the deepest convection flaring up. But this is part of a broad area of low pressure. Most most agree that this area will stay down there, and whatever energy there is will split, with some staying there in the SW Caribbean while some will head toward the Bahamas. The idea that this low isn't the one that will come out of the western Caribbean and move north may be the right idea. The GFS this morning is joined by the CMC, and to some degree the NOGAPS now, as the NOGAPS leavesa small low off Nicaragua, but entrains some of that energy into the trough digging down early next week. Interestingly the GFS shows a huge area of convection coming out of the western Caribbean in the 10 - 14 day period, moving it to the Yucatan channel, and into the GOM. Of course that's a millenium away, but leads me to believe that the season isn't quite over yet. Also, if the trough doesn't dig as far south early next week things may still be interesting with the now present Caribbean low. Let's see if this low strengthens during the next few days. Cheers!!

[wxman57]

The low is near the southern Nicaragua coast, not up north where the convection is.

[Steve H.]

Thanks 57, thought I saw some rotation there. What are your thoughts on the rest of the season, and any Caribbean development??