Even Less impressed tonight with the Caribbean

[Stormsfury]

NONE of the major global models even indicate now that the disturbed area in the Caribbean reach tropical storm status...not one. MM5 doesn't even show winds to TD strength anymore whereas 3 days ago, progged a hurricane lashing Jamaica. The NOGAPS is the most aggressive and yet only shows 30 kt winds at the surface. The EURO splits the energy apart ... one piece ejected NNE and absorbed in the full latitude trough and is absorbed while hanging back another piece of energy which winds down by Day 7. The UKMET suddenly pops up a 1005 mb low at the end of the period (12z Mon Oct 27th). Also note the deep full latitude trough over the Eastern US at that same time.

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

The Canadian Ensembles have backed off significantly from yesterday and NONE of the 12z GFS Ensembles show ANYTHING of interest but a choatic array of convection down there.

SF

[MGC]

Just another example of misguided models.....most are not even worth looking at let alone attempting to forecast with......MGC

[ColdFront77]

Forecast weather models are used as guidance, so they can't be misguided.

Models have to be used in forecasting, because no one model is correct all the time and sometimes more than one or none of them are correct.