NICK STILL MOVING W AT 7 KTS IN..........
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dixiebreeze
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NICK STILL MOVING W AT 7 KTS IN..........
the NHC 2 p.m. discussion. Probably won't be successful, but it looks like he's trying to duck under that trough to the N.
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stormchazer
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Nick seems to have a mind of his own.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
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Opinions my own.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
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donsutherland1
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Re: NICK STILL MOVING W AT 7 KTS IN..........
Dixiebreeze,
There is little to no chance that Nicholas will not recurve. He is currently approaching a wall of substantial wind shear. As a strong cold front sweeps off the East Coast, Nicholas will be picked up and taken away from the U.S.
The little vorticity center that is situated around 12N 78W bears some watching. It is in an area of weak and declining wind shear, very warm SSTAs (>29C and 1C to 1.5C Above Normal), etc., so it has potential for some development. Working against such development is its fairly close proximity to land should it begin a drift to the south as is suggested by some of the computer guidance.
In any case, tropical analogs, seasonal climatology, and model guidance are all against its ever posing a threat to the U.S.
There is little to no chance that Nicholas will not recurve. He is currently approaching a wall of substantial wind shear. As a strong cold front sweeps off the East Coast, Nicholas will be picked up and taken away from the U.S.
The little vorticity center that is situated around 12N 78W bears some watching. It is in an area of weak and declining wind shear, very warm SSTAs (>29C and 1C to 1.5C Above Normal), etc., so it has potential for some development. Working against such development is its fairly close proximity to land should it begin a drift to the south as is suggested by some of the computer guidance.
In any case, tropical analogs, seasonal climatology, and model guidance are all against its ever posing a threat to the U.S.
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Stormsfury
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Steve H. wrote:Anyone have access to the 12Z UKMET? Some insight on the low in the western Caribbean would be appreciated. Thanks in advance!
Shows a very broad 1005 mb low south of Cuba on the very last frame. Also shows one heck of an Midwest/Eastern Storm with a full latitude NEG TILT trough reaching down deep into the GOM as well.
Well ...
Take a look...
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif
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