ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Damn. Hopefully it weakens before reaching PR.

[Bocadude85]

Dorian is definitely looking better tonight, looks like Puerto Rico will be getting a strong tropical storm.

[EquusStorm]

Definitely not an ideal time for significant strengthening. Very impressed it's able to mix out that incredibly dry air and organize; NECarib is not usually a great environment this time of year. Also... is it just me or is it moving more north than west? Honestly I'd be watching extra super closely in the Virgin Islands at this point

[HDGator]

Dorian is definitely looking better tonight, looks like Puerto Rico will be getting a strong tropical storm.

That's something they definitely don't need. I read something yesterday saying they're still estimating 30,000 blue tarped roofs and I don't doubt it.
I don't think it will get much stronger but it doesn't look like it's losing anything while it's still fighting through the dry air.
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_09&x=12889&y=7177

[galaxy401]

Well this "graveyard" in the Eastern Caribbean isn't acting like a graveyard right now. Dorian looking healthy while many other storms around this time of the year in the region couldn't do.

[sponger]

HRWF bombing a Cat4 North of Canaveral.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=117

Heading for Daytona?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=123

Just North of DAB Monday morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=126

[AtlanticWind]

The good news a strengthening Dorian the past few hours means it will and is now moving more poleward towards the weakness created by Erin and the approaching trough. This is an outcome not considered only hours ago.

Not really much good news today, it has become apparent that Dorian is going to survive
and may become a major. Maybe a slight chance it doesn't hit land ,but landfall unfortunately looks likely

[Blown Away]

00z Euro may be south of 12z at FL landfall? Much stronger than 12z...

[Tailspin]

Lightening bolts over and around the storm,as a rule of thumb suggests its intensifying.

[Nancy Smar]

TXNT28 KNES 280619
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 28/0600Z

C. 16.9N

D. 63.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC)
WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. MET=PT=3.0. FT BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BOLL

[storminabox]

Dorian is looking a lot better tonight.

[Bocadude85]

00z Euro may be south of 12z at FL landfall? Much stronger than 12z...

I really hate to even use the name, but 0z Euro is Andrew-esque...just farther north. I know a lot of people compare storms to Andrew but the euro does show a strengthening hurricane accelerating westward through the northwestern Bahamas.

[BlowHard]

Weird the way this storm intensifies while appearing to move NORTH. It looks like PR will get TS only, which is about as good as we can hope for. Have I told you how much I love SAL? It saved our butts this time around. I'm sorry for those who will see this storm after it leaves the Caribbean. Stay safe.

[Stormi]

HRWF bombing a Cat4 North of Canaveral.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=117

Heading for Daytona?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=123

Just North of DAB Monday morning

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=126

Darn

[Stormi]

We're literally just west of Daytona Beach...

[HDGator]

Weird the way this storm intensifies while appearing to move NORTH. It looks like PR will get TS only, which is about as good as we can hope for. Have I told you how much I love SAL? It saved our butts this time around. I'm sorry for those who will see this storm after it leaves the Caribbean. Stay safe.

Stay safe and dry, it looks like it's only a TS but it will likely be ALL of one - both wind and rain. It doesn't look like Dorian is losing much and is likely gaining some.
Take care!

[Bocadude85]

Interesting that the forecast for West Palm is showing “hurricane conditions possible” when the NHC forecast track is into Daytona Beach

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=269&y=47&site=mfl&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=269&map_y=47#.XWYkrxpujxw

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting that the forecast for West Palm is showing “hurricane conditions possible” when the NHC forecast track is into Daytona Beach

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=269&y=47&site=mfl&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=269&map_y=47#.XWYkrxpujxw

It's been showing that for the last day or so.

[lando]

The 00z Euro is quite punishing of Central Florida and Tampa...It slows the system down and parks it within 50 miles of Tampa for 3 straight days...

[HDGator]

We're literally just west of Daytona Beach...

No reason to stress at this point; so don't get too worried. There still isn't much confidence in either the final track or strength of this storm tonight.
Don't put too much stock in the direct line from NHC at 5-days other than to be prepared.
At this point, make sure you're prepared to either stay in place with supplies or evacuate with a plan should it come your direction.
The time will come to make a decision in the next two days. You'll likely find that the sun is still shining and you have nothing to worry about.