ATL: DORIAN - Models

[STRiZZY]

[otowntiger]

We are quickly getting to the stage where trends are your friends. I think recurve is not only table now I think it becoming probable. I do not see windshield wiper effect occurring so much anymore as the path slowly begins to get clear. Climo tells us recurve happens most often and probably will happen in this case.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1166567798409170944

[toad strangler]

Definitely climo type tracks by the GFS the past two runs. But, this isn't in stone says the UKMET.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing that turns this on the GFS is a system in the GOM which the Euro is weaker with that feature

[StPeteMike]

What’s causing the breakdown of the ridge all the sudden? Besides a very weak Erin, I don’t see anything that would allow room and time for Dorian to squeeze through.

[Steve]

We are quickly getting to the stage where trends are your friends. I think recurve is not only table now I think it becoming probable. I do not see windshield wiper effect occurring so much anymore as the path slowly begins to get clear. Climo tells us recurve happens most often and probably will happen in this case.

It's going to be close. 2 or 3 days later, and it's not recurving. But it might have that opportunity. That GFS Legacy looks legit on strength though. That's what I've been thinking all along if it comes up east of Florida. That's where the cauldron is.

[CrazyC83]

What’s causing the breakdown of the ridge all the sudden? Besides a very weak Erin, I don’t see anything that would allow room and time for Dorian to squeeze through.

Relative strength of the Bermuda High to the east I believe that is acting to drive it up. But the alternative scenario I see is a virtual stall-out.

[caneseddy]

CMC shifts south..looks like landfall in Palm Beach County as a Cat 2

[WeatherEmperor]

New Canadian is going due W towards Palm Beach County so far which is a south shift from before. Closer to the Icon and Ukmet solutions.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bocadude85]

0z CMC is quite a bit southeast of the 12z making a due west beeline for West Palm

[LarryWx]

WTNT82 EGRR 280356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.08.2019

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 62.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2019 0 15.5N 62.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 28.08.2019 12 17.2N 64.6W 1009 32
0000UTC 29.08.2019 24 18.6N 65.9W 1008 36
1200UTC 29.08.2019 36 20.1N 67.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 30.08.2019 48 22.2N 68.0W 997 49
1200UTC 30.08.2019 60 23.9N 69.2W 989 55
0000UTC 31.08.2019 72 25.3N 70.5W 978 66
1200UTC 31.08.2019 84 26.3N 72.4W 978 67
0000UTC 01.09.2019 96 26.7N 74.0W 975 70
1200UTC 01.09.2019 108 27.0N 75.3W 970 69
0000UTC 02.09.2019 120 27.2N 76.4W 963 80
1200UTC 02.09.2019 132 27.2N 77.3W 965 74
0000UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 77.6W 964 67

UKMET likely showing its leftward bias here. We’ve seen this in the past.

[AdamFirst]

CMC is sending a formidable storm towards Palm Beach County - hour 108 980mb over Freeport heading barely WNW.

[caneseddy]

CMC shifts south..looks like landfall in Palm Beach County/Martin County as a Cat 2

[Steve]

CMC has that other feature in the Gulf still. That's got to be an ULL with a surface reflection. It's shown up on some of the other models. What's odd to me, is that none of the MJO models are reflecting anything crazy in the next few days that would lead to development across the western basin. Maybe it's a singular CCKW or some other type of juice propagating west to east across the hemisphere? I'm not sure, but there's got to be reason this would crank along with a forerunning low.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2800&fh=78

[MrJames]

CMC is east on this run and slower. Heading WNW toward West Palm Beach but the ridge looks like its starting to erode at 108hr.

[sponger]

Boom.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-legacy/2019082800/gfs-legacy_mslp_wind_watl_29.png

Ugly for NC! Lets see what the Euro has to say. Should get an agreement by the Friday 2 am run.

[northjaxpro]

What’s causing the breakdown of the ridge all the sudden? Besides a very weak Erin, I don’t see anything that would allow room and time for Dorian to squeeze through.

Relative strength of the Bermuda High to the east I believe that is acting to drive it up. But the alternative scenario I see is a virtual stall-out.

The alternate scrnario is a stalled Dorian just off the coast of Jacksonville late Sunday into early Monday.

[AdamFirst]

CMC landfalls at the St. Lucie Inlet around ~120hr, 970~mb. A very Jeanne-like entry point.

[Steve]

Larry,

UK last couple seasons has had an E bias as much as it has had a west. It shows a SW hook. We'll see Saturday or Sunday if it was right.