ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

What is a good website to view satellite loops and be able to create .gif's to post??? Thanks...

If you are talking a bout interactive mapping where you can zoom in, these:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/
https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu

I have been having some issues with creating bigger ones at RealEarth. (They also have a limit on how much you can view of their imagery before they add a watermark) I was able to create some mp4 movies there and then use an online converter to go from mp4 to gif. I use an online gif optimizer to get the file size down on them.

I make my browser window real small so I can create the smallest view possible so I can get the file size down initially so it can create it.

[NDG]

With the latest 18z Euro, GFS and HWRF becoming more aggressive with Dorian the NHC will have to bump up Dorian's forecast to at least a Cat 1 by Sunday.

[AxaltaRacing24]

With the latest 18z Euro, GFS and HWRF becoming more aggressive with Dorian the NHC will have to bump up Dorian's forecast to at least a Cat 1 by Sunday.

Yes. Sadly everything is now bombing this storm out. At this point, we better hope the OTS outliers are true (although unlikely)

[jlauderdal]

With the latest 18z Euro, GFS and HWRF becoming more aggressive with Dorian the NHC will have to bump up Dorian's forecast to at least a Cat 1 by Sunday.

Not if lixion avila is on duty?

[Blown Away]

I'm predicting at 11pm they will show a hurricane day 4/5 and maybe leave position off the Florida coast and make the 5 day cone bubble bigger to include points farther north...

[SoupBone]

If it goes over the middle of PR that could kill it- while PR traditionally is no ‘Shredder’ like Hispaniola, it can be to this tiny, struggling system.

That's essentially what I'm expecting. If that happens the shear will be too much for it to recover. But if it manages to miss that all goes out the window.

Watch the video from Levi, posted above. He talks about this specific topic. It could weaken the storm, but it's not enough to "kill" it.

I love Levi's videos and explanations, but there have been promets stating the complete opposite. I'm not sure any of us really know for sure.

[GeneratorPower]

I'm predicting at 11pm they will show a hurricane day 4/5 and maybe leave position off the Florida coast and make the 5 day cone bubble bigger to include points farther north...

Size of bubble is fixed and depends strictly on days-away and prior years’ forecast error. It does not change based on uncertainty of particular storm.

[Blown Away]

I'm predicting at 11pm they will show a hurricane day 4/5 and maybe leave position off the Florida coast and make the 5 day cone bubble bigger to include points farther north...

Size of bubble is fixed and depends strictly on days-away and prior years’ forecast error. It does not change based on uncertainty of particular storm.

Yes, I meant compress due to possible slowing down at days 4/5 based on latest GFS...

[GeneratorPower]

Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone

Definition:

The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle.

[toad strangler]

I'm predicting at 11pm they will show a hurricane day 4/5 and maybe leave position off the Florida coast and make the 5 day cone bubble bigger to include points farther north...

It’s my understanding that the cone size does not change but reflects real margin of error. I think they only change sizing during offseason as new scores are computed.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the center has moved under the convection when before it was on the very edge of the convection so it looks like it has finally come together

[GeneratorPower]

Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone

Definition:

The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle.

So if it’s done properly, the storm center falls within the cone only 66% of the time. A full 33% of the time, one should expect the track of Dorian, for example, to fall outside the cone.

[toad strangler]

That's essentially what I'm expecting. If that happens the shear will be too much for it to recover. But if it manages to miss that all goes out the window.

Watch the video from Levi, posted above. He talks about this specific topic. It could weaken the storm, but it's not enough to "kill" it.

I love Levi's videos and explanations, but there have been promets stating the complete opposite. I'm not sure any of us really know for sure.

Complete opposite of what? Levi laid out every scenario. He didn’t forecast anything.

[SoupBone]

Watch the video from Levi, posted above. He talks about this specific topic. It could weaken the storm, but it's not enough to "kill" it.

I love Levi's videos and explanations, but there have been promets stating the complete opposite. I'm not sure any of us really know for sure.

Complete opposite of what? Levi laid out every scenario. He didn’t forecast anything.

Did you read the posts in this chain?

Read what Jason posted. It's the debate about where Puerto Rico could kill it. Levi said in his video that it's not enough, but others (promets) have posted that it could. Again, not knocking Levi, his work is top tier, I just don't think anyone knows until it happens or doesn't. Though Puerto Rico surely doesn't need this either way.

[Hammy]

No recon reports for the last 30 mins again

[AdamFirst]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BUT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 63.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Kazmit]

NHC now takes it to an 80mph cat 1. Let the media panic begin.

[galaxy401]

Wow the NHC has Dorian jump up to 65 mph in 12 hours before it hits Puerto Rico. Let's see if he can do that or not.

[NDG]

New forecast shows it to become a Hurricane by Friday.

[SoupBone]

NHC now takes it to an 80mph cat 1. Let the media panic begin.

The word hurricane will definitely ramp up the coverage.