ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Even now without the center going over haiti you would think Dorian has a chance to strengthen into a formidable hurricane in the bahamas but the NHC keeps it as a strong TS never attaining hurricane status for whatever reason. based on the conditions across the bahamas i can't agree with that intensity forecast. Maybe 57 can come in and shade some light.

We have told you the reason. They do not want to scare anybody until we know that this storm will make it past the DR and PR in one piece. IMO this will either be a wave or a hurricane by Saturday.

Yeah, and then make landfall on Sunday?!?!

People need TIME to make preparations or evacuate. Waiting till Saturday doesn't leave much time, and that's why people are anxious, me thinks.

They have to forecast what the data tells them, on what's most realistically possible--they can't make forecasts simply based on something there's not a realistically high chance of happening, just to make sure people prepare--if they do that every storm would be forecast to major, and people would stop believing the forecasts.

[alienstorm]

What did the 18z ECMWF end up doing? Last I saw was 975mb in the Bahamas going west.

It has a stout high @90 hrs, with Dorian east of Abaco heading west. Maximum winds at the time 68 Kts

[Aric Dunn]

The overall circulation has improved a great deal once it moved away from the islands.

it is slowly becoming deeper.

[Aric Dunn]

[toad strangler]

This belongs in both models and discussion. Watch if you want to really educate yourself on the players at hand with Dorian’s future track.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1166512400004190208

[otowntiger]

https://twitter.com/Phinernie/status/1166516738923667457

If it goes over the middle of PR that could kill it- while PR traditionally is no ‘Shredder’ like Hispaniola, it can be to this tiny, struggling system.

[AdamFirst]

https://twitter.com/Phinernie/status/1166516738923667457

If it goes over the middle of PR that could kill it- while PR traditionally is no ‘Shredder’ like Hispaniola, it can be to this tiny, struggling system.

Agreed. The storm seemed to struggle yesterday when trying to traverse Barbados, a whopping 1100 feet.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/Phinernie/status/1166516738923667457

If it goes over the middle of PR that could kill it- while PR traditionally is no ‘Shredder’ like Hispaniola, it can be to this tiny, struggling system.

That's essentially what I'm expecting. If that happens the shear will be too much for it to recover. But if it manages to miss that all goes out the window.

[Blown Away]

What is a good website to view satellite loops and be able to create .gif's to post??? Thanks...

[mlfreeman]

We have told you the reason. They do not want to scare anybody until we know that this storm will make it past the DR and PR in one piece. IMO this will either be a wave or a hurricane by Saturday.

Yeah, and then make landfall on Sunday?!?!

People need TIME to make preparations or evacuate. Waiting till Saturday doesn't leave much time, and that's why people are anxious, me thinks.

They have to forecast what the data tells them, on what's most realistically possible--they can't make forecasts simply based on something there's not a realistically high chance of happening, just to make sure people prepare--if they do that every storm would be forecast to major, and people would stop believing the forecasts.

I don't envy the NHC. Understate it and people complain they weren't warned. Overstate it and "boy who cried wolf".

[jasons2k]

https://twitter.com/Phinernie/status/1166516738923667457

If it goes over the middle of PR that could kill it- while PR traditionally is no ‘Shredder’ like Hispaniola, it can be to this tiny, struggling system.

That's essentially what I'm expecting. If that happens the shear will be too much for it to recover. But if it manages to miss that all goes out the window.

Watch the video from Levi, posted above. He talks about this specific topic. It could weaken the storm, but it's not enough to "kill" it.

[MGC]

Yes, another burst of convection. Dorian is doing its best Jekyll and Hyde today. Yes looks like some shear is ahead. We shall see how disrupted Dorian is after its encounter with PR.....MGC

[Hammy]

Recon not finding any more than 40kts.

[SouthFloridawx]

What is a good website to view satellite loops and be able to create .gif's to post??? Thanks...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/

[Aric Dunn]

Recon not finding any more than 40kts.

just justs found 49kt 30 min ago.


013330 1628N 06210W 8450 01571 0147 +163 +163 123042 046 047 035 00
013400 1630N 06210W 8415 01611 0141 +169 //// 118040 045 049 034 01
013430 1632N 06211W 8457 01576 0143 +163 //// 119042 045 029 013 05
013500 1633N 06212W 8436 01588 0146 +166 //// 113036 043 033 005 05

[Hammy]

Recon not finding any more than 40kts.

just justs found 49kt 30 min ago.

High rain rate and was flagged, and somewhat close to land.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon not finding any more than 40kts.

just justs found 49kt 30 min ago.

High rain rate and was flagged.

013330 1628N 06210W 8450 01571 0147 +163 +163 123042 046 047 035 00
013400 1630N 06210W 8415 01611 0141 +169 //// 118040 045 049 034 01
013430 1632N 06211W 8457 01576 0143 +163 //// 119042 045 029 013 05
013500 1633N 06212W 8436 01588 0146 +166 //// 113036 043 033 005 05

there is a 46 and 47 unflagged.. right next to it.. makes the others reliable.

[Blown Away]

Not to bad... Looks WNW tonight...

[AtlanticWind]

https://twitter.com/Phinernie/status/1166516738923667457

If it goes over the middle of PR that could kill it- while PR traditionally is no ‘Shredder’ like Hispaniola, it can be to this tiny, struggling system.

That's essentially what I'm expecting. If that happens the shear will be too much for it to recover. But if it manages to miss that all goes out the window.

If it moves quickly over Puerto Rico the disruption probably won't kill it,
Dorian would likely recover in 12 to 24 hours

[beachman80]

Question: Weak systems tend to go more west, correct? So if this thing comes out of PR battered and weak, especially with increasing shear, and this is a 40mph storm, does that send it on more of a west track, especially with HP potentially building over it?