CONVECTION BUILDING IN CARIBBEAN........
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Anonymous
Our thoughts
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 5:15 PM EDT, October 21, 2003
There are 2 systems we are keeping an eye on at the moment. One is TS Nicholas, which is slowly but surely weakening over the central Atlantic. Nicholas should be out of the picture and will not get anywhere close to land.
Moving onto the other area of interest, convection has increased in the western Caribbean this afternoon. Visible and enhanced infrared imagery shows that thunderstorm activity is trying to consolidate around a broad area of low pressure located near 11N/81W. Latest available 24hr shear tendency maps show upper level winds beginning to relax in the area due to an upper ridge. Most model guidance wants to strenghten the ridge slightly, allowing for upper winds to further relax over the next several days. In addition, water vapor imagery is also showing more ridging in the western Caribbean as the trough gets pushed north. Development will be slow to occur. Of note, storms in the recent years that have formed in this area at this time of year have tended to bomb...a possibility that cannot yet be ruled out with this system IF it develops.
The future track is a little more complicated. The global models are split into two scenarios. The first scenario is for the low to gradually move to the N or NNE and reach eastern Cuba in about 3 days...followed by a turn more towards the NNW and/or extratropical transition. This is what the GFS, CMC, and MM5 show. The second scenario has the low very slowly drifting northward and still a tropical system south of Cuba by the end of the forecast period. This possibility is indicated by the NOGAPS and ECMWF. Now the NOGAPS has had a bad habit of developing potent Caribbean storms over the past week or two, so it is not the most trusted with this storm. Though we're not discounting it yet, with the ECMWF backing it up. The reasoning behind this output is that a strong ridge, currently in the western US, is expected to build strong north of the Caribbean, preventing it from sliding out to the Atlantic quickly. Then again, the GFS and CMC are almost identical with a quick exit, so they are hard to ignore either. But even these 2 models show the ridge building some after its exited the Caribbean, causing it to bend to the left close to the Bahamas, though by this point in time it could be extratropical. Right now, we are leaning with the first scenario until we see more to back up the NOGAPS besides the European. However, there is a bit of uncertainty with the track of this system if it develops, so the situation will continue to be watched.
The are unofficial products, and are not from the National Hurricane Center.
For a basic summary, refer to our tropical weather outlook.
Forecaster: Moreland/Mann
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion 5:15 PM EDT, October 21, 2003
There are 2 systems we are keeping an eye on at the moment. One is TS Nicholas, which is slowly but surely weakening over the central Atlantic. Nicholas should be out of the picture and will not get anywhere close to land.
Moving onto the other area of interest, convection has increased in the western Caribbean this afternoon. Visible and enhanced infrared imagery shows that thunderstorm activity is trying to consolidate around a broad area of low pressure located near 11N/81W. Latest available 24hr shear tendency maps show upper level winds beginning to relax in the area due to an upper ridge. Most model guidance wants to strenghten the ridge slightly, allowing for upper winds to further relax over the next several days. In addition, water vapor imagery is also showing more ridging in the western Caribbean as the trough gets pushed north. Development will be slow to occur. Of note, storms in the recent years that have formed in this area at this time of year have tended to bomb...a possibility that cannot yet be ruled out with this system IF it develops.
The future track is a little more complicated. The global models are split into two scenarios. The first scenario is for the low to gradually move to the N or NNE and reach eastern Cuba in about 3 days...followed by a turn more towards the NNW and/or extratropical transition. This is what the GFS, CMC, and MM5 show. The second scenario has the low very slowly drifting northward and still a tropical system south of Cuba by the end of the forecast period. This possibility is indicated by the NOGAPS and ECMWF. Now the NOGAPS has had a bad habit of developing potent Caribbean storms over the past week or two, so it is not the most trusted with this storm. Though we're not discounting it yet, with the ECMWF backing it up. The reasoning behind this output is that a strong ridge, currently in the western US, is expected to build strong north of the Caribbean, preventing it from sliding out to the Atlantic quickly. Then again, the GFS and CMC are almost identical with a quick exit, so they are hard to ignore either. But even these 2 models show the ridge building some after its exited the Caribbean, causing it to bend to the left close to the Bahamas, though by this point in time it could be extratropical. Right now, we are leaning with the first scenario until we see more to back up the NOGAPS besides the European. However, there is a bit of uncertainty with the track of this system if it develops, so the situation will continue to be watched.
The are unofficial products, and are not from the National Hurricane Center.
For a basic summary, refer to our tropical weather outlook.
Forecaster: Moreland/Mann
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