ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

What is interesting is that the storm could end up more right during the first few days but end up more left in the end as ridging has more time to build in.

5:00 advisory now.

The Cone seems to be indicating further north. Now it "red" for entire FL coast, but I can see it looks more north. Might change based on later movement/recon.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Key Words from the NHC

[p1nheadlarry]

This is scary and sad for those who are still recovering from last year's Michael damage.

Let's hope it doesn't do this....

Everything west of Thomas Dr made it out ok from Michael. Literally night and day within the same county that saw the landfall of a Cat 5 (think north Dade vs South Dade after Andrew). There was substantially more damage in Tallahassee than in Ft Walton/Destin, for example.

Probably the worst thing that would happen for the regions affected by Michael if Dorian was a carbon-copy of Erin is push water into Apalachee Bay.

I have been to Mexico Beach since Michael. I see everything flattened. It's bad there, and only been a year. They DON'T need another storm now.....

Yea I live in the vicinity, basically in Panama City once a week. I was only comparing Erin in 1995 in terms of impacts to the area if it were to repeat (as someone else posted).

[SFLcane]

They still keep this from developing into a hurricane in the bahamas.

[wxman57]

A little generous with the initial intensity, perhaps. Last few hours of recon indicated decreasing winds. Still lots of uncertainty in the track and intensity past 3-4 days. I fit does track over Puerto Rico, then there may not be much of a circulation left when it exits the island. I don't like Dorian...

[Evil Jeremy]

They still keep this from developing into a hurricane in the bahamas.

They don't want to freak anyone out until they have a good idea who specifically needs to be freaked out.

[artist]

We now have tropical storm conditions possible in our forecast for Sat here just nw of WPB

[p1nheadlarry]

They still keep this from developing into a hurricane in the bahamas.

Still waiting on the discussion but just keeping the status quo. They're well aware that an intact Dorian under favorable conditions after leaving the Greater Antilles has the potential to be something more.

[toad strangler]

They still keep this from developing into a hurricane in the bahamas.

That’s window dressing for now. While it may pan out as such I think it’s prudent to be conservative while Dorian is still in the Caribbean

[toad strangler]

A little generous with the initial intensity, perhaps. Last few hours of recon indicated decreasing winds. Still lots of uncertainty in the track and intensity past 3-4 days. I fit does track over Puerto Rico, then there may not be much of a circulation left when it exits the island. I don't like Dorian...

I couldn’t tell

[HDGator]

Well, with the 5pm track it looks more like straight across PR. Even with a weakened Dorian, they don't need this. Blue tarps don't hold up to much wind.
It looks like with that northward coc relocation there will be a straight track across the middle of the island now.

[toad strangler]

Well, with the 5pm track it looks more like straight across PR. Even with a weakened Dorian, they don't need this. Blue tarps don't hold up to much wind.
It looks like with that northward coc relocation there will be a straight track across the middle of the island now.

And PR is more than capable of taking him out and give 57 a 3 day Labor Day weekend

[longhorn2004]

According to the Weather Channel, Dorian should be in the midst of dry air right now, could explain the weakening. Question is what happens if that High sinks lower than they are predicting, that sends Dorian into Miami.

[SFLcane]

Even now without the center going over haiti you would think Dorian has a chance to strengthen into a formidable hurricane in the bahamas but the NHC keeps it as a strong TS never attaining hurricane status for whatever reason. based on the conditions across the bahamas i can't agree with that intensity forecast. Maybe 57 can come in and shade some light.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Even now without the center going over haiti you would think Dorian has a chance to strengthen into a formidable hurricane in the bahamas but the NHC keeps it as a strong TS never attaining hurricane status for whatever reason. based on the conditions across the bahamas i can't agree with that intensity forecast. Maybe 57 can come in and shade some light.

We have told you the reason. They do not want to scare anybody until we know that this storm will make it past the DR and PR in one piece. IMO this will either be a wave or a hurricane by Saturday.

[hurricaneCW]

Well, with the 5pm track it looks more like straight across PR. Even with a weakened Dorian, they don't need this. Blue tarps don't hold up to much wind.
It looks like with that northward coc relocation there will be a straight track across the middle of the island now.

And PR is more than capable of taking him out and give 57 a 3 day Labor Day weekend

A small island will disrupt but won't take him out. I'm getting increasingly concerned for the SE US. That path toward the hot Bahamas in a low shear environment is ominous. Intensity forecasts could really ramp up soon.

Personally I think Dorian will brush PR to the east, he's pretty far north already.

[Kingarabian]

Even now without the center going over haiti you would think Dorian has a chance to strengthen into a formidable hurricane in the bahamas but the NHC keeps it as a strong TS never attaining hurricane status for whatever reason. based on the conditions across the bahamas i can't agree with that intensity forecast. Maybe 57 can come in and shade some light.

They're likely giving the ensembles more weight. Most GFS and EPS members keep this as a moderate TS after it passes PR until landfall (if any).

[beachman80]

According to the Weather Channel, Dorian should be in the midst of dry air right now, could explain the weakening. Question is what happens if that High sinks lower than they are predicting, that sends Dorian into Miami.

It doesn't even necessarily need the HP to move more south and west. Weaker systems tend to move more west in general, which is why I am a little skeptical of the models moving it north. I think this thing is going to go through a very rough next 48 hours where it will struggle to stay alive, and because of that, it will likely move more on the left side of its current track. If it can survive to the Gulf Stream, things could become more conducive for development, especially if it gets into the Gulf.

[SoupBone]

Well, with the 5pm track it looks more like straight across PR. Even with a weakened Dorian, they don't need this. Blue tarps don't hold up to much wind.
It looks like with that northward coc relocation there will be a straight track across the middle of the island now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203926_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Maaann, this hard hook left makes it very concerning of him heading into the GoM after crossing Florida.

[Mouton]

IMO, the storm crosses 20N closer to 65W than 70 W as they show. There is a small ULL to its NW which will shear it for awhile. Clearly on the WV image, it is in a dry zone for awhile but that changes rapidly once past 25N and 75W. Over the gulf stream, it could take off. Till then probably stays under cat 1. I project a path bending more NW after crossing 20N, and wnw after 75w. I don't see this in the GOM as I suspect it turns N before 80W. Could be the rare Ga coast landing. I wonder if the front over the midwest can get here by the weekend. I doubt it but not to discount entirely.

The problem with these smallish storms is they can be greatly affected by the smallest of nudges. My fear has been it will RI once over the Gulf S if and wherever that happens.

That said, the guys at the NHC get paid, I don't so I'd rely upon what they say and scoff at my ideas.

My best guess today, tuesday.