ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[beachman80]

She's not looking as healthy today. I'm not convinced of this north movement if it weakens. Weaker systems tend to move more west. And with the system being sheared, you could see center relocations which will effect the track.

I personally think this thing is going to struggle to survive looking at the atmospheric conditions the next three days. If it can get through Thursday and that ULL stays out of the way, there's opportunity for it to re-develop a bit and get to a strong TS or minimal cane by the time it gets to Florida. The blow up potential, in my mind, is if it pulls a Katrina (which is actually the track I think it will take) and it crosses into the SE Gulf where water temps are 90 degrees. Then you could see something brew up. But from now until it gets to the west Bahamas, it's going to be a struggle.

[Frank2]

I think the next 12-18 hours are critical for this system. Right now the convection has split in two and on radar there are at least 2 perhaps 3 possible centers. It's starting to traverse an area of higher shear per the CIMSS estimate, so whether it will hold together or weaken to a wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea as some models and the NHC had mentioned on Sunday is still unknown...

[Weatherboy1]

Honestly, with the LLC/MLC co-located now due to the center reformation … the continuing climb in latitude away from the "Death Zone" down near Central America … and the fact Dorian looks highly unlikely to cross Hispanola barring some significant westward jogs … I worry that we're going to be talking about a much higher intensity forecast in days 4/5. Model support for strengthening up until landfall seems to be there as well. Hmmm

[Nimbus]

The outflow is starting to look better. Notice the streaky cirrus exiting the system seemingly uniform in all directions (would like to say isotropic but sounds/looks too much like isentropic) is being replaced by a more dense layer of spiral clouds. The streaky cirrus are indicative of the effects dry air entrainment has on the storm.

But the A word comes to mind...

Can't say it.

Do not say it, do not say it, do not say it!

Ironically though, considering how often that analog is abused to death, this is one situation that maybe it is actually apropos (in size and movement only! God forbid strength)

This will be me any time development is expected from the "central american gyre" late-season.

A delicate tropical storm in a marginal environment is sensitive to inflow restrictions from the island land masses. ARIC mentioned this might "jump" Barbados so the temporary center relocation is probably going to correct itself tonight.

[Kingarabian]

Recent SSMI-F15 pass shows the center continuing to be to the south of whatever deep convective mass that remains:

[skillz305]

Next advisory is 5pm EST correct? Any predictions on what may change in this advisory? Thanks!

[Frank2]

What happened in 1992 was very different - the system was halfway to Bermuda as a completely exposed circulation when the unfavorable environment changed...

[p1nheadlarry]

The outflow is starting to look better. Notice the streaky cirrus exiting the system seemingly uniform in all directions (would like to say isotropic but sounds/looks too much like isentropic) is being replaced by a more dense layer of spiral clouds. The streaky cirrus are indicative of the effects dry air entrainment has on the storm.

Do not say it, do not say it, do not say it!

Ironically though, considering how often that analog is abused to death, this is one situation that maybe it is actually apropos (in size and movement only! God forbid strength)

This will be me any time development is expected from the "central american gyre" late-season.

Any loop? Please link

Since the ssd.noaa site has been bogus since GOES-16 became operational, head over to tropical tidbits for all your storm floater needs. https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

Levi is also a seminole so I'll gladly deviate any web traffic towards his server.

[Siker]

Assuming radar is showing the dominant center, here is the current center location (black and white diamond) compared to all tracks of the 12z EPS. Needless to say, expect some changes in coming model cycles.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1166441188704096256

[Kingarabian]

The outflow is starting to look better. Notice the streaky cirrus exiting the system seemingly uniform in all directions (would like to say isotropic but sounds/looks too much like isentropic) is being replaced by a more dense layer of spiral clouds. The streaky cirrus are indicative of the effects dry air entrainment has on the storm.



This will be me any time development is expected from the "central american gyre" late-season.

Any loop? Please link

Since the ssd.noaa site has been bogus since GOES-16 became operational, head over to tropical tidbits for all your storm floater needs. https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... roduct=vis

Levi is also a seminole so I'll gladly deviate any web traffic towards his server.

Levi's website is great but I feel like the color scheme he's using for IR (Is it RBTOP?) is causing confusion about the progress of Dorian and whether it's strengthening or not.

There's also this website created by a fellow user from here named NotSparta:
https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/05L/ir/

[HurricaneBelle]

What happened in 1992 was very different - the system was halfway to Bermuda as a completely exposed circulation when the unfavorable environment changed...

It never fails. Every sheared system in the Western Atlantic is compared to Andrew, every storm moving south of west is compared to Katrina, and every little blob in the western GoM will be the next Humberto in 24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

Next advisory is 5pm EST correct? Any predictions on what may change in this advisory? Thanks!

Increase in future intensity is my prediction, track the same idea as before with continued movement towards the gulf..looking like two US landfalls

[BobHarlem]

What happened in 1992 was very different - the system was halfway to Bermuda as a completely exposed circulation when the unfavorable environment changed...

It never fails. Every sheared system in the Western Atlantic is compared to Andrew, every storm moving south of west is compared to Katrina, and every little blob in the western GoM will be the next Humberto in 24 hours.

You forgot it'll be annular.

[Patrick99]

What happened in 1992 was very different - the system was halfway to Bermuda as a completely exposed circulation when the unfavorable environment changed...

It never fails. Every sheared system in the Western Atlantic is compared to Andrew, every storm moving south of west is compared to Katrina, and every little blob in the western GoM will be the next Humberto in 24 hours.

I always wonder why Andrew, and why not Betsy, as it moved south of west in a more dramatic fashion! Actually, thinking about it, averaging out Betsy's weird loopiness, A & B took pretty similar tracks, B just started out further west is all.

[psyclone]

WPC has really turned up the QPF heat. I refuse to give up on our holiday weekend but dumpfest remains an option. Look at the big bend....and yes that is a 15" pixel popping up near Cedar Key. Fortunately we have plenty of time for this to get less bad..

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566937250

[Nimbus]

Next advisory is 5pm EST correct? Any predictions on what may change in this advisory? Thanks!

Increase in future intensity is my prediction, track the same idea as before with continued movement towards the gulf..looking like two US landfalls

They will obviously see the low level center is alive and well from the visible imagery.
I still think Dorian is headed for the Mona passage, and a delayed track would support a stronger ridge.

[Weatherboy1]

FWIW, WPC day 5 map has best estimate of Dorian making landfall East Central FL ...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=ter

[USVIKimmie]

Also, since I am already posting, I am gonna go ahead and remind folks that those in PR are tired of hearing conjecture about what will happen three days form now in Florida.

Just sayin.

Not just PR.

And after a major like what the US & British BVI (and Barbuda, and St Maarten, and... and...) PTSD is a real thing. Blue roofs are still in use.

I'm appreciative of Wx with his analysis, because that's the same thing I have been seeing - without the formal education. Living with it for 20 years in the front row, all my life in actuality.

Found lots of great resources too.

*sits back down in the cheap seats*

[Michele B]

Erin 1995 (Vero Beach /Navarre Bch) --- has similar path to newest ECWMF for Dorian

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Erin_1995_track.png

This is scary and sad for those who are still recovering from last year's Michael damage.

Let's hope it doesn't do this....

Everything west of Thomas Dr made it out ok from Michael. Literally night and day within the same county that saw the landfall of a Cat 5 (think north Dade vs South Dade after Andrew). There was substantially more damage in Tallahassee than in Ft Walton/Destin, for example.

Probably the worst thing that would happen for the regions affected by Michael if Dorian was a carbon-copy of Erin is push water into Apalachee Bay.

I have been to Mexico Beach since Michael. I see everything flattened. It's bad there, and only been a year. They DON'T need another storm now.....