ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

I'm interested to see how the tiny center feature behaves over the next few hours. Last year, Maria developed a similar feature just before landfall and ended up bringing localized hurricane conditions to parts of Guam, despite being operationally classified much weaker. Also last year, Gordon developed a similar feature, but was unable to maintain it.

[AdamFirst]

NHC leaving the intensity estimates intentionally conservative in the day 4 to 5 range because we may not have a storm at all after tomorrow depending on what path it takes.

[Emmett_Brown]

Wow, beautiful concentric ball of feathery upper level outflow. If I had not heard the bearish predictions based on dry sinking air, and just had this image to go by, I would be pretty concerned that this storm might ramp up. Looks can be deceiving! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[Aric Dunn]

I love watching all the turbulent flow.. going to take a few hoursntoncalm down once it moves away from the islands

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it has good to great outflow in all quads, I believe it’s go time for this

[norva13x]

NHC leaving the intensity estimates intentionally conservative in the day 4 to 5 range because we may not have a storm at all after tomorrow depending on what path it takes.

Being in that cone I hope it dissipates, but how likely is that actually? From the models and everything I have seen here it appears *something* will come out the other side to me. Just hoping nothing too strong.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, this has beautiful outflow on all channels.

[alienstorm]

 https://twitter.com/Phinernie/status/1166367759380430850

[SunnyThoughts]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1166365135436271616

[Kazmit]

Never really intensifies in the Bahamas considering the fuel and favorable conditions. Not sure the reasoning behind this. A 65mph TS near haiti you would think there was room for further intensification.

NHC usually doesn't show any significant changes in intensity with long-range forecasts because of the uncertainty. They also don't want to alarm the public too much this far out. In reality, this could weaken significantly while passing Hispaniola and intensify just as fast while in the Bahamas.

[hipshot]

Will td6 have any influence on the path or strength of Dorian?

TD 6 has become really annoying.

It will influence the path (and, by extension, the strength - depending on whether or not it misses Hispaniola). Mark Sudduth gave a partial explanation in his video yesterday.

How was the weather when Dorian went over/by you in Barbados?

[Aric Dunn]

[Hurricaneman]

The fact that Dorian is expanding has me thinking that if it goes through the Mona passage or even western PR it may not weaken as much

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like it has good to great outflow in all quads, I believe it’s go time for this

I’m sure if it wasn’t for the dry air this thing would intensify.

[1900hurricane]

Heh, almost looks like eyewall replacement.

[tropicwatch]

HH still not buying the relocation.

[Frank2]

Don't start rumor by talking about eyewall replacements.

This in the past few mintues by Joe Bastardi:

"IMO Dorian is likely no more than a minimal TS right now."

As he noted, Recon only found a 1010mb pressure and 30Kts of wind - barely a depression, too...

[robbielyn]

Correct its not a reforming in the normal sense. But rather from being disrupted by the various peaks as discussed esrlier.

Localized drops in pressure caused the center to "morph" rather than an actual reform. Its not a coincidence that it is west of martinique either.

Aric, according to the map I am looking at the HH has the center west of St. Lucia the island just south of Martinique.
http://tropicwatch.info/dorian082720191424.jpg

Not for long.. check radar. And look closer at the surface obs.. its forming.. and or formed west of martinique.

It is very clear.

aah. now my 7 is turning into a 9 on the way to a zero. yep wrapping around.

[Siker]

Looks like inflow to the core is being limited right now by Martinique / topography on other islands. That vort off Martinique continues to become better defined on radar but is not evident on IR at the moment.

[psyclone]

The forecast may call for a TS down the line but more likely it is either nothing or a hurricane with a TS simply being the best compromise at this time. exceptionally high degree of uncertainty since the dissipation option remains on the table. So far it's still surviving. Assuming that remains the case...the WPC is painting a wet picture for the Florida peninsula with plenty of QPF for everyone from the upper keys and below I-10 on the latest output.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566919479