ATL: DORIAN - Models

[chaser1]

Obviously it’s still early on but appears to be looking like a central Florida event moreso than a southern Florida event (if everything stays as is at the moment) and of course everything can change.

I would tend to agree with that; at least to the extent that the models are trending. On the other hand then comes the issue of Dorian weakening to an open wave after P.R. and perhaps temporarily moving more westward (to WNW) with the lower surface flow. Anyway, this may be why the new GFS has been trending a bit more 'left" thus far.

[NDG]

No it is deginitey looking like Dorian will have amajor impact to thosevof us here in Florida this Labor Day weekend.

For me, the latest trends for the models have Dorian potentially impacting Northeast Florida and East Central Florida as a target

area for landfall on Sunday as a potential strong hurricane. Needless to say, it is going to be an extremely busy time for me monitoring the sitiation going forward. But, I have to admit, I am not liking the latest trends with Dorian.

z
Seems like the models might be shifting a little right possibly directly impacting the NE Florida coast. What effect do you think Tropical Depression 6 will have on leaving a weakness in the ridge to pull Dorian more poleward?

TD 6 is creating just enough of a weakness to allow Dorian to move into it as he approaches Hispaniola the next 36 hours, but it is likely Dorian will be able to avoid Hispaniola's rugged mountainous terrain to not get severly disrupted. It looks right now it only clip the Southeast tip of the island or could shoot the gap through the Mona Passage and miss Hispaniola all together.

Is actually a mid and UL low dropping down to Cuba, not so much TD 6, that will be creating the weakness in the ridge for Dorian to take a more NW track before the Bermuda ridge builds back up and resumes a more WNW track over the Bahamas.

[Ivanhater]

Many ensembles bringing this into Gulf. Still almost a week away

[northjaxpro]

Yes.
Good catch NDG. I overlooked the md- upper trough feature. Yeah, that will bend Dorian back w or w/nw toward the East Florida Coast, It will depend on the orientation of the ridge late this week on Dorian moving due west or west/northwest

[NDG]

Many ensembles bringing this into Gulf. Still almost a week away

According to the latest GFS & Euro we are only 5 days away from it possibly making landfall somewhere in eastern FL, the question is will it continue moving WNW to the GOM or take a more polar track into interior northern FL. The trends will be the key.

[chaser1]

Whatever consolidates following a departure from the Caribbean, i'd guess that anywhere from Vero to St. Augustine would be the point of Florida landfall at the moment. Weird angle of approach given the shape of the coastline would likely result in a good deal of beach erosion up to extreme S. Georgia. With the combined steering from a mid level low to its S.E. and building heights to the north, i'd guess that the storm (or hurricane) would likely be moving between 10-15 mph at landfall. Still too far away to rule out a gentle re-curve that brings the storm farther north, or much further south as a much weaker system as well. Just for the moment though, i'd throw a dart and guess that a Cat 1 hurricane would likely make landfall just south of Daytona Beach.

[NDG]

Yes.
Good catch NDG. I overlooked the md- upper trough feature. Yeah, that will bend Dorian back w or w/nw toward the East Florida Coast, depending on the orientation of the ridge late this week.

The funny thing now that I look closer is that the mid level circulation dropping south was at one point part of TD 6 which decoupled, so in a way TD 6 is responsible for creating the weakness in the ridge in the long run.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Still to early to tell wether it slices across florida and into the gulf.

We will know for sure on Thursday.

[northjaxpro]

Many ensembles bringing this into Gulf. Still almost a week away

According to the latest GFS & Euro we are only 5 days away from it possibly making landfall somewhere in eastern FL, the question is will it continue moving WNW to the GOM or take a more polar track into interior northern FL. The trends will be the key.

Yes NDG that is right. The models right/ east shift the past couple of runs raIsed a big red flag to me with more potential severe impacts from Jacksonville south to Melbourne wrt possible landfall strike region. It is going to be some long days and hours ahead the rest of the week into the holiday weekend monitoring this storm NDG.

[Frank P]

Latest ICON 00z run shows a nice shift to the north at 120 hours.. still more southern than the other models but perhaps it’s starting to get in line with them... will not no for sure until next run when it goes out to 180 hours...

[Blown Away]

I've seen this movie before many times... If Dorian hangs on, it is a very rare occurrence to have a storm landfall from the SE in E Central/North Florida (Vero to Jacksonville). The movie ends with the ridge isn't strong enough and allows a recurve away from Florida or ridge is underestimated and storm moves across Florida/Straits anywhere south of Vero... Once recon does that "flight" to sample the high pressure ahead of the storm, we get our answer... I expect that recon @72 hours from a potential Florida landfall...

[Frank P]

Many ensembles bringing this into Gulf. Still almost a week away

Yeah and quite a few like the PCB and MB areas... who certainly don’t need it regardless of intensity...

[WAcyclone]

I've been monitoring the forecasts from NOAA's next generation hurricane model (HAFS) for a few runs now and it appears to be very inconsistent with Dorian. After some runs showing the system not developing much at all, the most recent run blows it up to a Cat 5 hurricane! Although the HAFS performed quite well with Barry (if I remember correctly, it didn't blow that storm up the way HWRF did), I don't think its doing great with Dorian so far. The intensity in the eastern Caribbean also appears to be too high based on the storms current appearance. Of course, this is still a very early experimental model and I expect many improvements will be made over time! For reference, here is a description I already posted a few pages back:

The HAFS is NOAA's next-generation multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation package, which will provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclones within the framework of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and its rolling three-year Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP). Central to the development of HAFS will be the FV3 dynamical core with embedded moving nest capable of tracking the inner core region of the hurricane at 1-2 km resolution.

[NDG]

12z HRWF, Cape Canaveral Sunday morning.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF... Modest TS/Cat 1 into Central Florida... Models seems to want to strengthen very near Florida coast...

[caneman]

Yes.
Good catch NDG. I overlooked the md- upper trough feature. Yeah, that will bend Dorian back w or w/nw toward the East Florida Coast, It will depend on the orientation of the ridge late this week on Dorian moving due west or west/northwest

Or even WSW

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF-P

[caneman]

I've been monitoring the forecasts from NOAA's next generation hurricane model (HAFS) for a few runs now and it appears to be very inconsistent with Dorian. After some runs showing the system not developing much at all, the most recent run blows it up to a Cat 5 hurricane! Although the HAFS performed quite well with Barry (if I remember correctly, it didn't blow that storm up the way HWRF did), I don't think its doing great with Dorian so far. The intensity in the eastern Caribbean also appears to be too high based on the storms current appearance. Of course, this is still a very early experimental model and I expect many improvements will be made over time! For reference, here is a description I already posted a few pages back:

The HAFS is NOAA's next-generation multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation package, which will provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclones within the framework of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and its rolling three-year Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP). Central to the development of HAFS will be the FV3 dynamical core with embedded moving nest capable of tracking the inner core region of the hurricane at 1-2 km resolution.

https://i.imgur.com/2Ji91bH.gif

Good Lord!! Let's hope that doesnt come close to verifying

[Blown Away]

06z Navgem... Likes Miami as a Cat 1/2

[BobHarlem]

I've been monitoring the forecasts from NOAA's next generation hurricane model (HAFS) for a few runs now and it appears to be very inconsistent with Dorian. After some runs showing the system not developing much at all, the most recent run blows it up to a Cat 5 hurricane! Although the HAFS performed quite well with Barry (if I remember correctly, it didn't blow that storm up the way HWRF did), I don't think its doing great with Dorian so far. The intensity in the eastern Caribbean also appears to be too high based on the storms current appearance. Of course, this is still a very early experimental model and I expect many improvements will be made over time! For reference, here is a description I already posted a few pages back:

The HAFS is NOAA's next-generation multi-scale numerical model and data assimilation package, which will provide an operational analysis and forecast out to seven days, with reliable and skillful guidance on Tropical Cyclone (TC) track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with Tropical Cyclones within the framework of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and its rolling three-year Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP). Central to the development of HAFS will be the FV3 dynamical core with embedded moving nest capable of tracking the inner core region of the hurricane at 1-2 km resolution.

https://i.imgur.com/2Ji91bH.gif

This is the nightmare stuff that sits in the back of my head. That's unlikely, but not impossible.