ATL: DORIAN - Models

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#621 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:16 am

Euro has something in the GOM about the same time.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#622 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:44 am

6z GFS is farther southwest this run, goes right over Hispaniola
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#623 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:58 am

Bocadude85 wrote:6z GFS is farther southwest this run, goes right over Hispaniola


Meanwhile the GFS-Legacy is more E
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#624 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:04 am

06z GFS Operational is its strongest yet for Dorian. Looks like a weak TS landfall over eastern Florida.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#625 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:09 am

GFS Legacy - Strongest yet I believe....

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#626 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:13 am

GFS Legacy really strengthens at landfall, might be Gulfstream influence? Interesting.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#627 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:21 am

GFS Legacy has been consistent the past couple of runs now showing a rather potent hurricane making landfall at Cape Canaveral Sunday afternoon. This latest run has itat 970 mb at landfall, which would easily support a solid Cat 2 storm or even a low end major Cat 3.

This set up would be bad, if it comes close fruition, for Northeast Florida and East Central Florida , even worse than Irma 's impacts in 2017, especially storm surge flooding in the Saint Johns River.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#628 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:26 am

Obviously it’s still early on but appears to be looking like a central Florida event moreso than a southern Florida event (if everything stays as is at the moment) and of course everything can change.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#629 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:36 am

tgenius wrote:Obviously it’s still early on but appears to be looking like a central Florida event moreso than a southern Florida event (if everything stays as is at the moment) and of course everything can change.


I wouldn't sound the all clear for South Florida yet. The ensemble mean tracks for the three major globals, UKMET, GFS, and ECM, are all south of their operational runs. And how strong Dorian gets may ultimately determine its track into Florida. We've all seen in the past how 500 mb ridging can get pumped up with a strengthening storm or how long range models sometimes underdo the strength of this ridging (i.e. Ike).
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#630 Postby tgenius » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:39 am

ronjon wrote:
tgenius wrote:Obviously it’s still early on but appears to be looking like a central Florida event moreso than a southern Florida event (if everything stays as is at the moment) and of course everything can change.


I wouldn't sound the all clear for South Florida yet. The ensemble mean tracks for the three major globals, UKMET, GFS, and ECM, are all south of their operational runs. And how strong Dorian gets may ultimately determine its track into Florida. We've all seen in the past how 500 mb ridging can get pumped up with a strengthening storm or how long range models sometimes underdo the strength of this ridging (i.e. Ike).

That is true too. Wasn’t trying to say it wasn’t just didn’t appear to be at the moment. I think by midday Wednesday we we will have a bit of a clearer picture hopefully.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#631 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:47 am

tgenius wrote:
ronjon wrote:
tgenius wrote:Obviously it’s still early on but appears to be looking like a central Florida event moreso than a southern Florida event (if everything stays as is at the moment) and of course everything can change.


I wouldn't sound the all clear for South Florida yet. The ensemble mean tracks for the three major globals, UKMET, GFS, and ECM, are all south of their operational runs. And how strong Dorian gets may ultimately determine its track into Florida. We've all seen in the past how 500 mb ridging can get pumped up with a strengthening storm or how long range models sometimes underdo the strength of this ridging (i.e. Ike).

That is true too. Wasn’t trying to say it wasn’t just didn’t appear to be at the moment. I think by midday Wednesday we we will have a bit of a clearer picture hopefully.


No worries tgenius. I know you noted at the moment. And it may turn out to be a central Florida event. Below is the 06z suite of tropical models:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_06z.png
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#632 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:49 am

tgenius wrote:
ronjon wrote:
tgenius wrote:Obviously it’s still early on but appears to be looking like a central Florida event moreso than a southern Florida event (if everything stays as is at the moment) and of course everything can change.


I wouldn't sound the all clear for South Florida yet. The ensemble mean tracks for the three major globals, UKMET, GFS, and ECM, are all south of their operational runs. And how strong Dorian gets may ultimately determine its track into Florida. We've all seen in the past how 500 mb ridging can get pumped up with a strengthening storm or how long range models sometimes underdo the strength of this ridging (i.e. Ike).

That is true too. Wasn’t trying to say it wasn’t just didn’t appear to be at the moment. I think by midday Wednesday we we will have a bit of a clearer picture hopefully.


Nothing will be clear until whatever, if anything, clears the GA’s
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#633 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:55 am

Most interesting is that even the end of run for members that start to bend more to the right and look like they might recurve get shut down. The pattern is just not going to let anything escape
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#634 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:14 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Most interesting is that even the end of run for members that start to bend more to the right and look like they might recurve get shut down. The pattern is just not going to let anything escape


No it is definitely looking like Dorian will have a major impact to those of us here in Florida this Labor Day weekend.

For me, the latest trends for the models have Dorian potentially impacting Northeast Florida and East Central Florida as a target area for landfall on Sunday as a potential strong hurricane. Needless to say, it is going to be an extremely busy time for me monitoring the sitiation going forward. But, I have to admit, I am not liking the latest trends with Dorian.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#635 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:15 am

tgenius wrote:Obviously it’s still early on but appears to be looking like a central Florida event moreso than a southern Florida event (if everything stays as is at the moment) and of course everything can change.



Still to early, ensembles are different and icon is not ok board yet either, thurs or Friday we should know
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#636 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:17 am

So far 12z HWRF is a little more enthusiastic with Dorian over the next 72 hours than previous 3 runs that almost opened it up into a wave.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#637 Postby pgoss11 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:19 am

northjaxpro wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Most intereting is that even the end of run for members that start to bend more to the right and look like they might recurve get shut down.. the patter is just not going to let anything escape


No it is deginitey looking like Dorian will have amajor impact to thosevof us here in Florida this Labor Day weekend.

For me, the latest trends for the models have Dorian potentially impacting Northeast Florida and East Central Florida as a target

area for landfall on Sunday as a potential strong hurricane. Needless to say, it is going to be an extremely busy time for me monitoring the sitiation going forward. But, I have to admit, I am not liking the latest trends with Dorian.


Seems like the models might be shifting a little right possibly directly impacting the NE Florida coast. What effect do you think Tropical Depression 6 will have on leaving a weakness in the ridge to pull Dorian more poleward?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#638 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:26 am

pgoss11 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Most intereting is that even the end of run for members that start to bend more to the right and look like they might recurve get shut down.. the patter is just not going to let anything escape


No it is deginitey looking like Dorian will have amajor impact to thosevof us here in Florida this Labor Day weekend.

For me, the latest trends for the models have Dorian potentially impacting Northeast Florida and East Central Florida as a target

area for landfall on Sunday as a potential strong hurricane. Needless to say, it is going to be an extremely busy time for me monitoring the sitiation going forward. But, I have to admit, I am not liking the latest trends with Dorian.


Seems like the models might be shifting a little right possibly directly impacting the NE Florida coast. What effect do you think Tropical Depression 6 will have on leaving a weakness in a the ridge to pull Dorian more poleward?


There is a large spread led by the UKMET to the S and Euro to the N. There is no shifting or trending. Dorian is simply still very far away and there are many moving parts that will determine where he goes. Too early.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#639 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:27 am

One thing for sure is that Dorian will have more moisture to work with over the Bahamas thanks to the left over moisture from TD 6 which it will be absorbing. The question is how good are the UL winds going to be, GFS shows it interacting with the ULL north of Hispaniola Thursday and Friday but an UL ridge building on top of it on Saturday to take advantage of to strengthen before landfall while the Euro shows light to moderate northerly shear to affect Dorian all the way into the FL landfall.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#640 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:29 am

pgoss11 wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Most intereting is that even the end of run for members that start to bend more to the right and look like they might recurve get shut down.. the patter is just not going to let anything escape


No it is deginitey looking like Dorian will have amajor impact to thosevof us here in Florida this Labor Day weekend.

For me, the latest trends for the models have Dorian potentially impacting Northeast Florida and East Central Florida as a target

area for landfall on Sunday as a potential strong hurricane. Needless to say, it is going to be an extremely busy time for me monitoring the sitiation going forward. But, I have to admit, I am not liking the latest trends with Dorian.

z
Seems like the models might be shifting a little right possibly directly impacting the NE Florida coast. What effect do you think Tropical Depression 6 will have on leaving a weakness in the ridge to pull Dorian more poleward?


TD 6 is creating just enough of a weakness to allow Dorian to move into it as he approaches Hispaniola the next 36 hours, but it is likely Dorian will be able to avoid Hispaniola's rugged mountainous terrain to not get severly disrupted. It looks right now it only clip the Southeast tip of the island or could shoot the gap through the Mona Passage and miss Hispaniola all together.
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