2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Hammy]

Now that we have recon showing Dorian much weaker than most (myself included) thought, it's looking pretty certain we're going to go two consecutive Augusts with no hurricanes for the first time since 2001-02

This seems pretty premature especially if Dorian makes it to the Bahamas

Models have backed off significantly as they now have a better handle on Dorian's organization (or lack thereof) and there's going to be quite a bit of shear waiting in the Bahamas as TD6 moves out.

That said, I'm still thinking the spurt of activity was the atmosphere testing the lights so to speak, before the switch is flipped all the way on in another week or two.

[USTropics]

What was it in 2001? I could've sworn one of the early 2000s was low.

2001 was about average (307.3175) and 2000 was slightly below average (252.9375). 1998 and 1999 are the really low ones. 1999 in particular barely cleared 100 units!

https://i.imgur.com/SXmJzSq.png

Interestingly both of those also featured pretty active Atlantic hurricane seasons, both with bursting activity with fairly long dry spells--1998 went 12 days with nothing in the Atlantic and only Frances in the Gulf for a few days, as well as the lengthy August and early season lulls.

Put this together last night using data from http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ and https://www.casact.org/pubs/forum/18spforumv2/05_Collins.pdf going back to 1961. Dark green highlights are top 10% (light green are top 20%) and dark red are bottom 10% (light red are bottom 20%) of yearly ACE values.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fswZC5SbXNwrpTRllJGCl-7JS9ZbK-jw01DkgfzQu5A/edit?usp=sharing

[toad strangler]

Now that we have recon showing Dorian much weaker than most (myself included) thought, it's looking pretty certain we're going to go two consecutive Augusts with no hurricanes for the first time since 2001-02

This seems pretty premature especially if Dorian makes it to the Bahamas

Models have backed off significantly as they now have a better handle on Dorian's organization (or lack thereof) and there's going to be quite a bit of shear waiting in the Bahamas as TD6 moves out.

That said, I'm still thinking the spurt of activity was the atmosphere testing the lights so to speak, before the switch is flipped all the way on in another week or two.

No idea where you are getting that quite a bit of shear forecast in the Bahamas.

[Hammy]

This seems pretty premature especially if Dorian makes it to the Bahamas

Models have backed off significantly as they now have a better handle on Dorian's organization (or lack thereof) and there's going to be quite a bit of shear waiting in the Bahamas as TD6 moves out.

That said, I'm still thinking the spurt of activity was the atmosphere testing the lights so to speak, before the switch is flipped all the way on in another week or two.

No idea where you are getting that quite a bit of shear forecast in the Bahamas.

Models are always faster at moving it out than what actually ends up taking place, and there's quite a wall there at the moment. I don't see conditions allowing for intensification to hurricane strength if it fails to do so in the Caribbean.

[Hammy]

I don't think this post is going to age well in a few days.

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: I don't think this post is going to age well in a few days.

I was going to say but thought it might be rude

[tolakram]

I think it makes hurricane in the Caribbean, so not exactly wrong.

[NDG]

What a busted seasonal forecast for those that were calling for a very busy subtropical Atlantic, the fairly few systems that have formed so far have struggled.

[tolakram]

It's August 26th.

Dorian is a strong tropical storm looking like it may become a hurricane. Models are hinting at a more northerly route and trouble down the road. As usual, what a difference a week makes.

It's August 29th, Dorian is still struggling a bit but is now a hurricane and forecast to become a major and possibly make landfall along the Florida coast. Erin formed but didn't last long. The Euro is showing more MDR activity but on the weaker side.

[CyclonicFury]

The CFS and JMA (not sure about the ECMWF) both show that after this week, Africa and the eastern Atlantic should have -VP200 anomalies for the next few weeks. The sinking branch was a large factor in the slow activity prior to August 20, but it shouldn't be much of an issue from here on out (aside from brief windows of suppressed CCKW or MJO). With El Nino's influence essentially gone, September-November could be more active than usual. The ECMWF shows two MDR TCs next week.

[StruThiO]

Appears the 2013 comparisons have gone down in flames, as usual just like EVERY FREAKING YEAR

No named storms in August... LOL

Here we are August 30th with our first major.

[CyclonicFury]

Appears the 2013 comparisons have gone down in flames, as usual just like EVERY FREAKING YEAR

No named storms in August... LOL

Here we are August 30th with our first major.

Climatology is such a powerful force in the Atlantic basin. 10 days ago, even I would have been shocked we'd get a major hurricane by the end of the month. August managed to squeeze out three TCs including a major hurricane that will likely be a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. Models show more activity in September, too - maybe NOAA's forecast won't be so far off.

[zhukm29]

Time to bring back this post from July (#432 in this thread)...

I’m starting to sense a season with a lot of weak struggling to live systems. We’ve already seen both Andrea (which didn’t even last a day), and Barry (which was supposedly a hurricane for only three hours) struggle to obtain their peak intensity.

This post is an essential component of the hurricane season flow chart:
A.) pre season hype and excitement
B.) an early season slop storm
C.) a broad moat that separates the slop storm season from the "real" season during which little or nothing happens (you are here now)... AKA season cancel season. It is during this time that season cancel posts will begin to appear...innocuous at first before full blown panic establishes itself (wait for the 2013 comparisons to be trotted out...they're coming).
D.) the "real" hurricane season manifests. It is during this time that those using 2013 analogs will flip to 2005 or 2017 analogs. This typically begins around the time of Dr Gray's infamous bell ringing on August 20.
I have consistently been a believer in an active season but am bearish between now and mid august...leaving us a solid month of season cancel conditions. The above referenced pattern is predictable every year because history does repeat itself. We must crawl before we can walk. Meanwhile conditions in the Atlantic look more favorable today than they did at the beginning of the season. Keep your eye on the field of play and not the scoreboard...the latter is meaningless at this juncture.

The most important sentence here is the last: keep your eye on the field of play and not the scoreboard... the latter is meaningless at this juncture. In just a week after people came into this thread and made season cancel posts based on the scoreboard, the following has happened:

1) El Niño has almost completely gone.
2) The sinking cell responsible for suppressing the tropics is leaving right at the peak of the season.
3) August has pumped out three storms, with a major heading toward the United States.
4) Two more CV storms are expected to come off of Africa in the next week or so.
5) Both the ECMWF and UKMET are hinting toward an active second half of September and October.

You know, here's something interesting... before the August lull messed with people's minds, do you know which year was being talked about as a year with similar environmental conditions in the tropics? That's right: 2004. Now, obviously this doesn't mean that 2019 is going to end up as another 2004, but if 2004 is brought up as an analog for environmental conditions, this should be a pretty strong indication that 2019 isn't going to be the next 2013.

There's a reason why NOAA raised their forecasts of the 2019 season to above average during the second week of August, right in the middle of the lull. If one looked at the scoreboard, they would get the impression that the season was completely dead. But if one looked at the field of play, the picture would be much different.

[captainbarbossa19]

Time to bring back this post from July (#432 in this thread)...

I’m starting to sense a season with a lot of weak struggling to live systems. We’ve already seen both Andrea (which didn’t even last a day), and Barry (which was supposedly a hurricane for only three hours) struggle to obtain their peak intensity.

This post is an essential component of the hurricane season flow chart:
A.) pre season hype and excitement
B.) an early season slop storm
C.) a broad moat that separates the slop storm season from the "real" season during which little or nothing happens (you are here now)... AKA season cancel season. It is during this time that season cancel posts will begin to appear...innocuous at first before full blown panic establishes itself (wait for the 2013 comparisons to be trotted out...they're coming).
D.) the "real" hurricane season manifests. It is during this time that those using 2013 analogs will flip to 2005 or 2017 analogs. This typically begins around the time of Dr Gray's infamous bell ringing on August 20.
I have consistently been a believer in an active season but am bearish between now and mid august...leaving us a solid month of season cancel conditions. The above referenced pattern is predictable every year because history does repeat itself. We must crawl before we can walk. Meanwhile conditions in the Atlantic look more favorable today than they did at the beginning of the season. Keep your eye on the field of play and not the scoreboard...the latter is meaningless at this juncture.

The most important sentence here is the last: keep your eye on the field of play and not the scoreboard... the latter is meaningless at this juncture. In just a week after people came into this thread and made season cancel posts based on the scoreboard, the following has happened:

1) El Niño has almost completely gone.
2) The sinking cell responsible for suppressing the tropics is leaving right at the peak of the season.
3) August has pumped out three storms, with a major heading toward the United States.
4) Two more CV storms are expected to come off of Africa in the next week or so.
5) Both the ECMWF and UKMET are hinting toward an active second half of September and October.

You know, here's something interesting... before the August lull messed with people's minds, do you know which year was being talked about as a year with similar environmental conditions in the tropics? That's right: 2004. Now, obviously this doesn't mean that 2019 is going to end up as another 2004, but if 2004 is brought up as an analog for environmental conditions, this should be a pretty strong indication that 2019 isn't going to be the next 2013.

There's a reason why NOAA raised their forecasts of the 2019 season to above average during the second week of August, right in the middle of the lull. If one looked at the scoreboard, they would get the impression that the season was completely dead. But if one looked at the field of play, the picture would be much different.

It seems like a lot of people operate almost like the hurricane season. Their way of thinking changes about as frequently as activity fluctuates in the tropics. It would be nice if many would wait until at least September before they state their seasonal outlooks. The tropics are excellent in the art of disguise.

[psyclone]

I expect this season will hurl a couple more whoppers. Another good scare or worse for someone between now and the end of October would not surprise me.

[Steve]

I expect this season will hurl a couple more whoppers. Another good scare or worse for someone between now and the end of October would not surprise me.

I didn’t think we’d see much out of August past Barry which you could see coming with the MJO run into Phase 2. But two days before Barry and also 90L has cost me first hand flood issues. We are ending August with an extreme system that will be active several days into September’s and should score plenty of ace. Couple more Atlantic systems should follow Dorian, so we will probably be through the G storm in this burst. Outside chance the low crossing Gulf reaching TS status which would be H. I’d put any amount of money on the remainder of the season produces at least 5 named storms which would put us around average. So far 3 of the 4 names storms have been at least coastal threats, so outside of whatever recurve season we have in the central or eastern Atlantic, we know that near the coasts seem ripe enough for at least a couple more threats. I thought this would be a relatively down ace year, but if we get a Caribbean equivalent of Dorian or some week or more fish storms, we could end up with even slightly above ACE. I didn’t see that as a real possibility in May. But the way the Atlantic has warned and with the transition back to neural ENSO, maybe I underestimated this year? We have a ways to go.

[DioBrando]

I expect this season will hurl a couple more whoppers. Another good scare or worse for someone between now and the end of October would not surprise me.

I didn’t think we’d see much out of August past Barry which you could see coming with the MJO run into Phase 2. But two days before Barry and also 90L has cost me first hand flood issues. We are ending August with an extreme system that will be active several days into September’s and should score plenty of ace. Couple more Atlantic systems should follow Dorian, so we will probably be through the G storm in this burst. Outside chance the low crossing Gulf reaching TS status which would be H. I’d put any amount of money on the remainder of the season produces at least 5 named storms which would put us around average. So far 3 of the 4 names storms have been at least coastal threats, so outside of whatever recurve season we have in the central or eastern Atlantic, we know that near the coasts seem ripe enough for at least a couple more threats. I thought this would be a relatively down ace year, but if we get a Caribbean equivalent of Dorian or some week or more fish storms, we could end up with even slightly above ACE. I didn’t see that as a real possibility in May. But the way the Atlantic has warned and with the transition back to neural ENSO, maybe I underestimated this year? We have a ways to go.

I actually see the Gulf system becoming gabrielle.

[AnnularCane]

I expect this season will hurl a couple more whoppers. Another good scare or worse for someone between now and the end of October would not surprise me.

I didn’t think we’d see much out of August past Barry which you could see coming with the MJO run into Phase 2. But two days before Barry and also 90L has cost me first hand flood issues. We are ending August with an extreme system that will be active several days into September’s and should score plenty of ace. Couple more Atlantic systems should follow Dorian, so we will probably be through the G storm in this burst. Outside chance the low crossing Gulf reaching TS status which would be H. I’d put any amount of money on the remainder of the season produces at least 5 named storms which would put us around average. So far 3 of the 4 names storms have been at least coastal threats, so outside of whatever recurve season we have in the central or eastern Atlantic, we know that near the coasts seem ripe enough for at least a couple more threats. I thought this would be a relatively down ace year, but if we get a Caribbean equivalent of Dorian or some week or more fish storms, we could end up with even slightly above ACE. I didn’t see that as a real possibility in May. But the way the Atlantic has warned and with the transition back to neural ENSO, maybe I underestimated this year? We have a ways to go.

I actually see the Gulf system becoming gabrielle.

Not the Atlantic one?

[DioBrando]

I didn’t think we’d see much out of August past Barry which you could see coming with the MJO run into Phase 2. But two days before Barry and also 90L has cost me first hand flood issues. We are ending August with an extreme system that will be active several days into September’s and should score plenty of ace. Couple more Atlantic systems should follow Dorian, so we will probably be through the G storm in this burst. Outside chance the low crossing Gulf reaching TS status which would be H. I’d put any amount of money on the remainder of the season produces at least 5 named storms which would put us around average. So far 3 of the 4 names storms have been at least coastal threats, so outside of whatever recurve season we have in the central or eastern Atlantic, we know that near the coasts seem ripe enough for at least a couple more threats. I thought this would be a relatively down ace year, but if we get a Caribbean equivalent of Dorian or some week or more fish storms, we could end up with even slightly above ACE. I didn’t see that as a real possibility in May. But the way the Atlantic has warned and with the transition back to neural ENSO, maybe I underestimated this year? We have a ways to go.

I actually see the Gulf system becoming gabrielle.

Not the Atlantic one?

Gulf is a literal bath and wind shear and dry air is low so I'm thinking that:
Fernand is that atlantic cv system
Gabrielle is that gulf system
Humberto is behind fernand waiting in central africa
Imelda might be a re Erin

But idk yet

[MetroMike]

I actually see the Gulf system becoming gabrielle.

Not the Atlantic one?

Gulf is a literal bath and wind shear and dry air is low so I'm thinking that:
Fernand is that atlantic cv system
Gabrielle is that gulf system
Humberto is behind fernand waiting in central africa
Imelda might be a re Erin

But idk yet

I actually see the cv Atlantic system becoming the G storm 1st.
The Gulf system does not have as much time to develop as it may be proged to run into Mexico.