ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Kingarabian]

So this looks to be Hermine 2016 all over again in regards to the GFSs disagreements with other models.

[USTropics]

GFS legacy splits Mona Passage:

[AxaltaRacing24]

lol at the gfs flip flopping all over the place. but it adds to the consensus that this storm will be intact when it hits the united states.

[USTropics]

FYI GFS ensembles still run off the GFS legacy core and dynamic scaling until December, so could see a shift north in the ensembles based on this.

[Bocadude85]

0z Canadian with a landfall near Jupiter around 991mb.

[sma10]

These 980, 970 pressures from the globals (CMC, GFS leg, and UK) should not be sniffed at. These tracks taken verbatim could end up with actual pressures much lower. HWRF might start to get more interesting

[Stormi]

GFS legacy splits Mona Passage:
https://i.ibb.co/6rfVZY5/gfs-legacy-z850-vort-watl-fh12-132.gif

Welp...If this verifies, I should've picked up more than what I did at the store tonight.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If this gets to the Bahamas and is pushed more west into FL, that is a classic track for intensifying storms.

[lsuhurricane]

Hot off the press GFS ensemble. Gulf bound

[stormlover2013]

Models everywhere, doesn’t surprise me

[TheProfessor]

HMON bringing the storm back at the end of its run for the first time.

[Shell Mound]

00Z ECMWF is stronger and clips Cabo Rojo, PR, in two days, marking yet another (slight) eastward shift.

[Hammy]

00Z ECMWF is stronger and clips Cabo Rojo, PR, in two days, marking yet another (slight) eastward shift.

Stronger than 27/00z but looks like the 12z run was stronger and more northeast than this one.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: much weaker at hour 84 vs prior 2 runs due largely to higher shear.

[Shell Mound]

0Z Euro: much weaker at hour 84 vs prior 2 runs due largely to higher shear.

I would expect large run-to-run shifts, however, based on the very small size (spatial coverage) of DORIAN, to begin with. The circulation is tiny.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro will landfall a bit north of 12Z Euro into NE FL I think.

Edit: Daytona landfall between 132 and 138. Tiny storm again.

[Stormi]

Just inland of Daytona Beach here...thinking I should buy more than I did today tomorrow

[TheProfessor]

Wow the 0z EPS is insanely interesting. Nearly all the ensembles are into Florida or the GOM, a pretty decent west shift! And remember the 0z Icon with the Ike like path? Well there 2 Ensembles that have the storm dip over Cuba then back northwest into the GOM like the ICON. Quite the variance right now.

[GCANE]

So, are we going to see two simulataneous TC's in the GOM?

[USTropics]

This will be a great test in ~3 days to see how each of the ensemble groups are performing. The GFS ensemble mean is over eastern Hispaniola, the ECMWF ensemble mean is through the Mona Passage, and the UKMET ensemble mean is over Puerto Rico: