ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Hurricaneman]

0z GFS is slightly east of 18z at 42 hours out, may miss Hispaniola this time.

Nope but may avoid the mountains

[toad strangler]

Well the 0z GFS for the 1st time has left Hispaniola with a seemingly intact vorticity after scraping the E edge

[Hurricaneman]

Well the 0z GFS for the 1st time has left Hispaniola with an intact vorticity after scraping the E edge

The GFS seems to be having trouble with this as even though it’s in a great environment for strengthening it doesn’t seem to do so and that may have to do with its small size as it seems to have trouble with systems like this

[PTrackerLA]

Actually looks more out of sorts than 18z at 84hrs. Meanwhile the legacy GFS is down to 986mb. Interesting test for this model as the legacy is still much closer to the Euro

Edit: rapid increase in vorticity at 102hrs looks closed again

[toad strangler]

But GFS is a strung out mess moving into the Bahamas

[Evil Jeremy]

For what appears to be the first time in a while, the GFS reestablishes a closed low in the Bahamas in 102 hours.

[toad strangler]

For what appears to be the first time in a while, the GFS reestablishes a closed low in the Bahamas in 102 hours.

Yup, the very next frame lol

[Bocadude85]

For what appears to be the first time in a while, the GFS reestablishes a closed low in the Bahamas in 102 hours.

Seems to be strengthening from 102 to 114 hours,

[AxaltaRacing24]

finally caving a slight bit.

[Hurricaneman]

Actually looks more out of sorts than 18z at 84hrs. Meanwhile the legacy GFS is down to 986mb. Interesting test for this model as the legacy is still much closer to the Euro

Edit: rapid increase in vorticity at 102hrs looks closed again

This version of the GFS has pulled some real silly things like with Michael last year sending that initially into the Bahamas and silliness like that so we may have a real model war with the GFS vs everyone else with the future of Dorian

[toad strangler]

For what appears to be the first time in a while, the GFS reestablishes a closed low in the Bahamas in 102 hours.

Seems to be strengthening from 102 to 114 hours,

It’s a tiny little thing headed for Vero area

[TheProfessor]

Man, the Icon is giving me full on Ike flashbacks with that Southwest dive into Cuba and then back into the GOM

[WeatherEmperor]

The new 0Z Ukmet




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[Evil Jeremy]

GFS to Daytona-ish

[SouthFLTropics]

What’s up with the new GFS...looks like it spawned twins in the GOM!!! I think that model needs some tweaking!

[caneseddy]

The new 0Z Ukmet

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190827/3cbec9f909a8ab7e873af146a42d18f2.gif


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UKMET sticking with landfall into Broward County like 12z wss

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS Legacy has a cat 2 hurricane landfall near Cape Canaveral

[Cpv17]

0z GFS says hello to NOLA.

[La Breeze]

Link to GFS model, please. Thanks!

[blp]

CMC no longers makes landfall in Hispaniola instead threads the Mona passage. Looks to be a much stronger run.