ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SEASON_CANCELED]

That right hook pattern may be bad news for florida later on.

I'm not panicking, checking my supplies tonjght. Making sure i got plenty of canned ham, liquor and batterys

[AtlanticWind]

The last three runs of the GFS ensembles have the mean pressure lower each run into Florida and mean track nudging a little south. Latest below:

https://i.postimg.cc/HknrVZRs/05-L-gefs-18z.png

If this system survives the eastern carribean , A South to central Florida threat is real.

[jlauderdal]

That right hook pattern may be bad news for florida later on.

I'm not panicking, checking my supplies tonjght. Making sure i got plenty of canned ham, liquor and batterys

Liquids, protein and power..that's all you need to get through the mightiest of storms.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[chaser1]

Fascinating. So much rides on whether the GFS is underplaying Dorian's nearer term increase in intensity. It would seem that a far weaker Dorian would suggest a bit more of a westward trek and greater interaction with "the rock". I don't see how that wouldn't wreck the small storm to shreds. On the flip side though, if the majority of other models suggest an increased level of consistency towards a track that would threaten P.R., then the greater question up to that point will be to what degree dry air and/or upper level shear might impact the storm prior to it's approach to Puerto Rico. Hard to imagine Dorian serving up a big threat here, but it seems clear that what ever increased risk to P.R. could well suggest a significant risk to the Bahamas and Florida. Even still, I'm not entirely sold on environmental conditions being that much more conducive once north of the Greater Antilles...... but intensification here (east of the Bahamas) would seem to fall within this season's overall paradigm. Let's put it this way...... Dorian seems to be a far more potential threat to the U.S. then I would have thought 24 hours ago. Let's first see if it'll survive the E. Caribbean shredder. I would be a bit shocked if RI were to really occur during the upcoming 48 hours but small storms are far more capable of such swings. That, and a better maintained intensity however would seem to really imply that environmental conditions overall are quickly becoming less adverse and a real wake up call that the switch were flipped and the lights all on. Will be curious to see how consistent the HWRF is with this one - especially with forecast track.

Good analysis Chaser. I could not have laid this out any better.

Most definitely interesting times ahead this week with Dorian. What a week this could end up being into the holiday weekend!!

Thanks Jax; so then comes the next question whether this event will pose a north/south event strathing Central or East coast Florida all the way up to you. That or, a track that might suggest that the ridge is so firm in place and east/west orientation...... that a T.S. (or Hurricane) ends up dissecting the state and has it re-enter the Gulf to later threaten the Panhandle or areas west from there?

[Agua]

Alcohol gets pretty old when that's the only activity there is.

[jlauderdal]

Alcohol gets pretty old when that's the only activity there is.

Tell that to the french quarter.

[Highteeld]

Big jump in the number of EPS members that develop Dorian over the Bahamas in the 18z run compared to previous runs...

[chaser1]

Alcohol gets pretty old when that's the only activity there is.

Tell that to the french quarter.

[chaser1]

Cant wait till the 0Z model runs. I'm sure this must have been discussed earlier today but ya gotta admit that it's pretty interesting how there seems so much general modal consensus on track and intensity.......except the GFS which is largely the outlier with regards to strength thus far. What makes this overview even more interesting is that the Legacy GFS seems right in line with the Euro and other models in terms of bring a deeper storm toward Florida. Thus far, the new GFS just doesn't want to buy in yet. Mind you, this is even that much more odd given the increasing GFS ensemble members that seems to increasingly point to a S. Florida landfall threat.

[weathermimmi]

From the early models and I seeing two landfalls are possible in Florida?

[HDGator]

Cant wait till the 0Z model runs. I'm sure this must have been discussed earlier today but ya gotta admit that it's pretty interesting how there seems so much general modal consensus on track and intensity.......except the GFS which is largely the outlier with regards to strength thus far. What makes this overview even more interesting is that the Legacy GFS seems right in line with the Euro and other models in terms of bring a deeper storm toward Florida. Thus far, the new GFS just doesn't want to buy in yet. Mind you, this is even that much more odd given the increasing GFS ensemble members that seems to increasingly point to a S. Florida landfall threat.

That's the question lingering tonight. Is the new GFS sniffing out a more leftward track that suicides into Hispaniola? In years past, agreement between the 'legacy' GFS and Euro was usually spot on. It makes you question which will prove out in the next few days and what that will mean.

[stormlover2013]

Won’t have any consistency till about Thursday

[ObsessedMiami]

That right hook pattern may be bad news for florida later on.

I'm not panicking, checking my supplies tonjght. Making sure i got plenty of canned ham, liquor and batterys

I got gas, batteries and vodka. Canned ham sounds good. Let’s hope we don’t need them

[HDGator]

Won’t have any consistency till about Friday

I'm thinking that by Wednesday with Dorian approaching PR and Hispaniola we're going to have some pretty good consistency. We'll have an idea how Dorian is dealing with the dry air and increasing shear and also how he'll traverse the eye of the needle between PR and Hispaniola. We'll also have a better idea how the ridge will develop to potentially block Dorian and force the WNW movement. I'm seeing Wednesday as the day with answers.

[stormlover2013]

Models haven’t been consistent till about 3-4 days out this year, Thursday or Friday is best bet but leaning towards 00z runs Thursday night, Hispaniola could cause a center relocation i mean still a lot of things have to play out

[Evil Jeremy]

I also think we are about 36 hours away from knowing what kind of circulation will be existing on the flip side of Hispaniola, and until then this is just a guessing game.

[NDG]

Something to keep in mind, I would question GFS's solution of Dorian running into the middle of Hispaniola and weakening really bad, it has been running left biased with Dorian so far.

[Hurricaneman]

Something to keep in mind, I would question GFS's solution of Dorian running into the middle of Hispaniola and weakening really bad, it has been running left biased with Dorian so far.

https://i.imgur.com/mJr1ULl.png

That 15 to 20 miles really makes a difference between death over Hispaniola and being a hurricane of some kind in Florida, the GFS is best case for Florida but that 20 mile could make for the worst case scenario

[beachman80]

Something to keep in mind, I would question GFS's solution of Dorian running into the middle of Hispaniola and weakening really bad, it has been running left biased with Dorian so far.

https://i.imgur.com/mJr1ULl.png

That 15 to 20 miles really makes a difference between death over Hispaniola and being a hurricane of some kind in Florida, the GFS is best case for Florida but that 20 mile could make for the worst case scenario

Agree. If this thing crosses Pico Duarte, Dorian will be dead as a doornail. But 20 miles east and this thing could become a Florida cane.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS is slightly east of 18z at 42 hours out, may miss Hispaniola this time.