ATL: DORIAN - Models

[MrJames]

For the new GFS. Not sure if we can still get the legacy ensembles.

[AtlanticWind]

18z HMON and 18z HWRF both go poof. And dissipate the system. HWRF before it even reaches Hispaniola.

And the plane is already finding lower pressure before getting to the core than both of them show.

NHC east pressure is 1007 at 8pm

[artist]

18z HMON and 18z HWRF both go poof. And dissipate the system. HWRF before it even reaches Hispaniola.

And the plane is already finding lower pressure before getting to the core than both of them show.

NHC east pressure is 1007 at 8pm

But the hwrf and hmon showed pressure of 1010 and 1012 there. Recon actually did find 1005 even though they went with 1007.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z HWRF finally puts Dorian back together again by the time it reaches the NW Bahamas at Hour 126, albeit weak.

[AtlanticWind]

And the plane is already finding lower pressure before getting to the core than both of them show.

NHC east pressure is 1007 at 8pm

But the hwrf and hmon showed pressure of 1010 and 1012 there. Recon actually did find 1005 even though they went with 1007.

Hwrf pressure at initialization was 1000 mb

[jlauderdal]

First, a disclaimer: I understand that you shouldn’t focus on the center of the NHC cone.

That being said, IF Dorian travels the center of the NHC come, then land interaction would be pretty minimal as it splits PR and Hisp. Therefore, the weakening to TS and staying there is curious. Maybe just a conservative estimate until there’s a better idea of how land interaction will affect Dorian?

You can focus on the center line here, they don't want the general public too for preparation purposes. Even if it splits the passage, inflow disruption can occur as it's making its journey away from the passage, the mountains can choke off the flow if the speed and trajectory line up. However, once it's made its run from Hispaniola then the Bahamas does nada to knock it down. It's a very dangerous setup next weekend into next week.

Sent from my KFKAWI using Tapatalk

[artist]

NHC east pressure is 1007 at 8pm

But the hwrf and hmon showed pressure of 1010 and 1012 there. Recon actually did find 1005 even though they went with 1007.

Hwrf pressure at initialization was 1000 mb

. Then I must have misread it
Actually, we were both wrong. It was 1008

[SFLcane]

18z euro anyone?

[AtlanticWind]

But the hwrf and hmon showed pressure of 1010 and 1012 there. Recon actually did find 1005 even though they went with 1007.

Hwrf pressure at initialization was 1000 mb

. Then I must have misread it
Actually, we were both wrong. It was 1008

https://i.imgur.com/bnK9N6W.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82618&fh=3

Check link

[TheProfessor]

18z euro anyone?

18z Euro has this brush up against the northeastern parts of the Dominican Republic and then moves it into the eastern Bahamas as a 995mb tropical storm. Looks to be a bit stronger at 84 hours than it was at 90 hours on the 12z run.

[TheStormExpert]

18z euro anyone?

18z Euro has this brush up against the northeastern parts of the Dominican Republic and then moves it into the eastern Bahamas as a 995mb tropical storm. Looks to be a bit stronger at 84 hours than it was at 90 hours on the 12z run.

What is the 18z Euro initialization pressure?

[Kingarabian]

18z euro anyone?

18z Euro has this brush up against the northeastern parts of the Dominican Republic and then moves it into the eastern Bahamas as a 995mb tropical storm. Looks to be a bit stronger at 84 hours than it was at 90 hours on the 12z run.

What is the 18z Euro initialization pressure?

Near 1005mb.

[MetroMike]

18z euro anyone?

18z Euro has this brush up against the northeastern parts of the Dominican Republic and then moves it into the eastern Bahamas as a 995mb tropical storm. Looks to be a bit stronger at 84 hours than it was at 90 hours on the 12z run.

What is the 18z Euro initialization pressure?

Didn’t know there WAS and 18z euro.
12z and 0z only right?

[TheProfessor]

18z Euro has this brush up against the northeastern parts of the Dominican Republic and then moves it into the eastern Bahamas as a 995mb tropical storm. Looks to be a bit stronger at 84 hours than it was at 90 hours on the 12z run.

What is the 18z Euro initialization pressure?

Didn’t know there WAS and 18z euro.
12z and 0z only right?

I have yet to find an 18z euro that's free, but there definitely is one.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro has this brush up against the northeastern parts of the Dominican Republic and then moves it into the eastern Bahamas as a 995mb tropical storm. Looks to be a bit stronger at 84 hours than it was at 90 hours on the 12z run.

What is the 18z Euro initialization pressure?

Didn’t know there WAS and 18z euro.
12z and 0z only right?

You can sign up @ www.Weathermodels.com or Weather.us to see the 06z and 18z Euro runs with some great parameters.

18z Euro is the strongest run yet from the model in regards to Dorian:

[artist]

Hwrf pressure at initialization was 1000 mb

. Then I must have misread it
Actually, we were both wrong. It was 1008

https://i.imgur.com/bnK9N6W.jpg

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 82618&fh=3

Check link

Differing links!
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/hwrf04.html

[SFLcane]

18z nogaps 983mb a bit south of west palm.

[islandgirl45]

When will tonight's recon data be incorporated into the models? Will it make it for the next Euro?

[BobHarlem]

When will tonight's recon data be incorporated into the models?

Either 6z or 12z tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

The last three runs of the GFS ensembles have the mean pressure lower each run into Florida and mean track nudging a little south. Latest below: