2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[Stormi]

IMHO, the fact that models aren't crystal balls is part of what makes systems & storms so intriguing to follow. The what if & why factors are what interest me.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is this a place to only talk after the season is done when it is a quiet season? The evidence is that SO FAR the Atlantic has been very quiet. That could soon change. People calling out people for calling for a quiet season or hinting at it being a possibility seems to be counter productive. Would I call out someone who thinks the season is going to be extremely active when we have had 6/4/2 by the end of August? Nope. Then why call out people for questioning a season that has so far under performed? Time will always tell in these cases. My science to back things up SO FAR is that the season has been much quieter than usual going into the peak of the season.

There was science here? Where? I must have missed it. None of us know where the season will end up, and there is NO science that backs up seasonal forecasts based on conditions so far. We've had seasons like this years that ended up dead, and we've had seasons that ended up above average. I have failed so many times, at this point in a season, to predict the outcome I don't even try anymore, and I smile when I see other posters attempting to do so. Good luck with that. I predicted a normal season, I still think that's the most likely outcome.

https://i.imgur.com/O0EwO1k.png

Can you name a few seasons that finished August at 4/1/0 that were above average as compared to those that were below average. Would love to see that statistic please. Anyone have that number? So far global activity is down. Maybe not as down as the loathed year of 2013 but still down. Also, science is based on observations and I am simply observating When are we allowed to yell season cancel and what are the rules for people yelling 2005 or 2017? Are they going to be called out as well every time a TD forms? Please elaborate.

[Hammy]

Is this a place to only talk after the season is done when it is a quiet season? The evidence is that SO FAR the Atlantic has been very quiet. That could soon change. People calling out people for calling for a quiet season or hinting at it being a possibility seems to be counter productive. Would I call out someone who thinks the season is going to be extremely active when we have had 6/4/2 by the end of August? Nope. Then why call out people for questioning a season that has so far under performed? Time will always tell in these cases. My science to back things up SO FAR is that the season has been much quieter than usual going into the peak of the season.

There was science here? Where? I must have missed it. None of us know where the season will end up, and there is NO science that backs up seasonal forecasts based on conditions so far. We've had seasons like this years that ended up dead, and we've had seasons that ended up above average. I have failed so many times, at this point in a season, to predict the outcome I don't even try anymore, and I smile when I see other posters attempting to do so. Good luck with that. I predicted a normal season, I still think that's the most likely outcome.

https://i.imgur.com/O0EwO1k.png

Can you name a few seasons that finished August at 4/1/0 that were above average as compared to those that were below average. Would love to see that statistic please. Anyone have that number? So far global activity is down. Maybe not as down as the loathed year of 2013 but still down. Also, science is based on observations and I am simply observating When are we allowed to yell season cancel and what are the rules for people yelling 2005 or 2017? Are they going to be called out as well every time a TD forms? Please elaborate.

1967: ended with average ACE, but (while below normal as a result of having nothing by this point) had 8/6/1 after August 29 (12/7/1 for 2019)
1971: started September at 5/2/0 (including a very high-latitude hurricane which is questionable) and had 8/4/1 after September 3 (12/5/1 for 2019)
1975: another average ACE year, was 2/1/0 at this point, but had 6/5/3 after August 29 (10/6/3 for 2019)
1981: ended August with 4/1/0 (same as this year) and had 8/6/3 after August 31 (12/7/1 for 2019)
1984: had nothing save for one subtropical storm before August 28; was only 4/0/0 by September 7; after which point (if we have nothing more until September 7) there were 9/5/1--ending 2019 with 14/6/1 (or 17/6/1 if you include the three from Aug 28-31)
1988: nothing before August, had only 2/0/0 before August 28, ended the month at 3/0/0, nothing further forming until September 2, and had 9/6/3--ending 2019 (if you exclude Chris, which was on Aug 28) with 13/7/3
2001: ended August with 4/0/0, no hurricanes until September 10 even--and had 11/9/4 after this point, including a major in November (which CFS as hinted at often)--which would put this year at 15/10/4
2002: had only 3/0/0 before August 29, and started September at 4/0/0, and again no hurricanes until September 11--had 8/4/2 after August, ending 2019 with 12/5/2 (and 2002 is the year this year has felt the most similar to as far as general weather pattern so far) and W Pac activity was down that year as well, and it also featured a very early E Pac start, followed by a substantial lull for most of August before activity picked up again late in the month.

[tolakram]

Can you name a few seasons that finished August at 4/1/0 that were above average as compared to those that were below average. Would love to see that statistic please. Anyone have that number? So far global activity is down. Maybe not as down as the loathed year of 2013 but still down. Also, science is based on observations and I am simply observating When are we allowed to yell season cancel and what are the rules for people yelling 2005 or 2017? Are they going to be called out as well every time a TD forms? Please elaborate.

Why are you asking me to name them, why haven't you looked it up? Are you interested in a discussion, or just throwing things out there to see what sticks? I call people out when they make claims with nothing to back it up. Do your homework, otherwise this looks an awful lot like trolling. These discussions only get frustrating when posters start making claims without any evidence.

[1900hurricane]

The WPac had almost 400 units of ACE in 2002. That's well above normal.

[psyclone]

It seems to me that the more anomalous an expectation is the more evidence it needs. To suggest there will be no hurricanes and only a few tropical storms based on a "gut feeling" when that almost never happens is a recipe for some pushback, especially on a forum comprised of weather fans interested in tracking storms. In addition, when the "gut feeling" is the same every year...it isn't a gut feeling but rather a base state. Not necessarily anything wrong with that...it's certainly permitted but it's going to generate a response...like showing up at a vegan fest with bacon. As of now the slow season gang is ahead decisively. My personal expectation of a somewhat more active than normal season with a fading nino isn't looking so hot right now...but it's early and we really haven't had good opportunities at bat in the subtropics which could still yield some action, particularly with a recent pattern of more backloaded seasons...something of interest to me since the higher risk time of the year is deeper into September through October in Florida. A slow start doesn't help us much...unless it continues.. The weather is fun because it both awes and confounds

[zhukm29]

It seems to me that the more anomalous an expectation is the more evidence it needs. To suggest there will be no hurricanes and only a few tropical storms based on a "gut feeling" when that almost never happens is a recipe for some pushback, especially on a forum comprised of weather fans interested in tracking storms. In addition, when the "gut feeling" is the same every year...it isn't a gut feeling but rather a base state. Not necessarily anything wrong with that...it's certainly permitted but it's going to generate a response...like showing up at a vegan fest with bacon. As of now the slow season gang is ahead decisively. My personal expectation of a somewhat more active than normal season with a fading nino isn't looking so hot right now...but it's early and we really haven't had good opportunities at bat in the subtropics which could still yield some action, particularly with a recent pattern of more backloaded seasons...something of interest to me since the higher risk time of the year is deeper into September through October in Florida. A slow start doesn't help us much...unless it continues.. The weather is fun because it both awes and confounds

To add on a bit...

Storm2K is a wonderful place. Even though I only made my account recently, I've been lurking for a long while now. There have been quiet seasons. There have been busy seasons. As weather lovers, I'm sure that many were dissatisfied with the essentially non-existent 2013 season. But I'm also certain that almost everyone also abhorred the destruction caused by seasons like 2005 and 2017. Yet in the end, what brings us all together is our passion for understanding the reasons why such seasons existed. The conditions that made the infamous years of 2005, 2013, and 2017 possible are absolutely fascinating to learn about, and the ability to read through discussions about them on a forum like this is immensely valuable and enriching.

This is a thread to talk about 2019 indicators, as mentioned by the thread title. I come into this thread to learn about the fading El Niño conditions, or the sinking cell that has been responsible for the season's quiet start, or CCKWs or wind shear anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere that may affect the remainder of the season, just to name a few. There is nothing wrong with posters who are conservative about the season or conditions. There is also nothing wrong with posters who are more bullish on the season. Knowing the reasoning behind these predictions can provide valuable knowledge to people who view the thread, regardless of their expertise in meteorology.

For instance, I love reading posters like wxman57 and Aric Dunn debate in each of the storm threads. wxman57 is known to be quite conservative when it comes to tropical weather, while Aric seems to be more optimistic about the development of tropical systems. Sometimes one gets it right, sometimes the other. But either way, both posters provide evidence to justify why they believe the things they do. You can learn a lot by reading through their observations and the reasoning they use to come up with different conclusions. Both individuals know their stuff as well; one is a professional meteorologist, and the other is a university physicist. Neither is always perfect, but no one is, and reading the insights of posters who disagree is useful when learning about tropical weather.

There is a difference between this and posters who derail the conversation with absurd statements like "the model runs are dead so September will likely stay dead" and "2013 began like this so 2019 could end up as another 2013," especially since they show up every single year. It almost seems that these posters are only posting these comments just to provoke reactions rather than to add to the conversation, which is akin to trolling. For readers like me who come here to learn about tropical weather, these posts are immensely annoying and frustrating. Evidence-backed opinions are wonderful... no one knows how the season is going to end up, and having a conversation as the season evolves is a fantastic learning experience for everyone. But the people who come into a thread about "2019 Indicators" and make claims based on things like gut feeling and a few weak model runs hurt the conversation more than they help.

I'll end the comment here... time to go back to watching Dorian.

[Hammy]

The WPac had almost 400 units of ACE in 2002. That's well above normal.

What was it in 2001? I could've sworn one of the early 2000s was low.

[USTropics]

The WPac had almost 400 units of ACE in 2002. That's well above normal.

What was it in 2001? I could've sworn one of the early 2000s was low.

There were a few low years right before 2000 it looks like:

[1900hurricane]

The WPac had almost 400 units of ACE in 2002. That's well above normal.

What was it in 2001? I could've sworn one of the early 2000s was low.

2001 was about average (307.3175) and 2000 was slightly below average (252.9375). 1998 and 1999 are the really low ones. 1999 in particular barely cleared 100 units!

[tolakram]

It's August 26th.

Dorian is a strong tropical storm looking like it may become a hurricane. Models are hinting at a more northerly route and trouble down the road. As usual, what a difference a week makes.

[CyclonicFury]

It's August 26th.

Dorian is a strong tropical storm looking like it may become a hurricane. Models are hinting at a more northerly route and trouble down the road. As usual, what a difference a week makes.

Also, models are hinting at additional MDR activity in early September. This season likely won't be hyperactive but even in the quietest of seasons there is almost always an uptick in late August-September.

[galaxy401]

Yeah, last week there was almost zero model support at all with Dorian and now it might be a potential threat to Florida and the Gulf. Always changes rapidly at this time of the year.

[Hammy]

The WPac had almost 400 units of ACE in 2002. That's well above normal.

What was it in 2001? I could've sworn one of the early 2000s was low.

2001 was about average (307.3175) and 2000 was slightly below average (252.9375). 1998 and 1999 are the really low ones. 1999 in particular barely cleared 100 units!

https://i.imgur.com/SXmJzSq.png

Interestingly both of those also featured pretty active Atlantic hurricane seasons, both with bursting activity with fairly long dry spells--1998 went 12 days with nothing in the Atlantic and only Frances in the Gulf for a few days, as well as the lengthy August and early season lulls.

[tolakram]

Here's the big picture. Dorian really sticks out as the only activity at the moment. Also note dust leaving Africa.

[dexterlabio]

What was it in 2001? I could've sworn one of the early 2000s was low.

2001 was about average (307.3175) and 2000 was slightly below average (252.9375). 1998 and 1999 are the really low ones. 1999 in particular barely cleared 100 units!

https://i.imgur.com/SXmJzSq.png

Interestingly both of those also featured pretty active Atlantic hurricane seasons, both with bursting activity with fairly long dry spells--1998 went 12 days with nothing in the Atlantic and only Frances in the Gulf for a few days, as well as the lengthy August and early season lulls.

.

If I'm not mistaken, between 1997 and 2002 is a remarkably long period of La Nina event, which I suppose helped enhance tropical activity in the Atlantic and suppress the Pacific.

[DioBrando]

I wonder if we're gonna get something like the following in 2019. Judging from that model run that came out in the other thread it might be possible.



Obviously, the bottom path is more ideal since it didn't landfall.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1166139992432926720

[Hammy]

Now that we have recon showing Dorian much weaker than most (myself included) thought, it's looking pretty certain we're going to go two consecutive Augusts with no hurricanes for the first time since 2001-02

[NotSparta]

Now that we have recon showing Dorian much weaker than most (myself included) thought, it's looking pretty certain we're going to go two consecutive Augusts with no hurricanes for the first time since 2001-02

This seems pretty premature especially if Dorian makes it to the Bahamas