ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Blown Away]

18z GFS...Landfall near Vero Beach... Huge difference is the vorticity is much more defined before Hispaniola and recovers quickly in the Bahamas compared to previous runs... IMO, GFS would strengthen Dorian more if it misses/brushes Hispaniola...

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think the models are picking up the slight erosion of the ridge temporarily by TD6 off of NC. That could be just enough to let it get the latitude before the ridge strengthens back and sends it west

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1166110343153803265




Legacy GFS gets down to a 977mb system before landfall, but eirc is right, that setup could support something much stronger.

[MetroMike]

As Mark Sudduth mentioned in todays update the 12Z Euro was in pretty good agreement with the 12Z legacy GFS.
And as I see the 18z GFS Legacy rolling in, it is also showing a Florida Hit.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166111160426303488

[SouthFLTropics]

I suppose the question of the day is "what is the new GFS seeing that everything else isn't"? Is it strictly the interaction with Hispaniola? Or is there more to it?

[TheStormExpert]

I suppose the question of the day is "what is the new GFS seeing that everything else isn't"? Is it strictly the interaction with Hispaniola? Or is there more to it?

It's weird to cause it is the model that sniffed Dorian out well before anyone else.

[beachman80]

I suppose the question of the day is "what is the new GFS seeing that everything else isn't"? Is it strictly the interaction with Hispaniola? Or is there more to it?

I really think it’s the interaction, and I can see why. If this thing goes over the heart of those mountains, it won’t survive. It’s too small and it will get shredded. We’re talking the matter of 30 miles potentially being the final factor in whether this becomes a hurricane into Florida or becomes non-existent.

[MetroMike]

I suppose the question of the day is "what is the new GFS seeing that everything else isn't"? Is it strictly the interaction with Hispaniola? Or is there more to it?

It's weird to cause it is the model that sniffed Dorian out well before anyone else.

Correct, almost exactly... 8 days ago.

[Highteeld]

Bit late here, but interesting to see the NAVGEM perfectly thread the needle between Hispaniola and PR:

[Frank2]

I think the models are picking up the slight erosion of the ridge temporarily by TD6 off of NC. That could be just enough to let it get the latitude before the ridge strengthens back and sends it west.

That no one forecast - but it might be our saving grace...

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models are kind of hinting at a similar set up to Hurricane Andrew. I am not sure we will see a cat 5 but anything is possible I suppose. Ridge placement is worrying to say the least. Stay safe in the islands.

[northjaxpro]

I think the models are picking up the slight erosion of the ridge temporarily by TD6 off of NC. That could be just enough to let it get the latitude before the ridge strengthens back and sends it west

Yes sir indeed!

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166118939572654080

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1166122074718507008

[Nederlander]

First, a disclaimer: I understand that you shouldn’t focus on the center of the NHC cone.

That being said, IF Dorian travels the center of the NHC come, then land interaction would be pretty minimal as it splits PR and Hisp. Therefore, the weakening to TS and staying there is curious. Maybe just a conservative estimate until there’s a better idea of how land interaction will affect Dorian?

[BobHarlem]

18z HMON and 18z HWRF both go poof. And dissipate the system. HWRF before it even reaches Hispaniola.

[toad strangler]

First, a disclaimer: I understand that you shouldn’t focus on the center of the NHC cone.

That being said, IF Dorian travels the center of the NHC come, then land interaction would be pretty minimal as it splits PR and Hisp. Therefore, the weakening to TS and staying there is curious. Maybe just a conservative estimate until there’s a better idea of how land interaction will affect Dorian?

exactly

[artist]

18z HMON and 18z HWRF both go poof. And dissipate the system. HWRF before it even reaches Hispaniola.

And the plane is already finding lower pressure before getting to the core than both of them show.

[LarryWx]

Just like the 12Z EPS was vs its prior runs, the 18Z GEFS is by far the most active GEFS of at least the last 4 with about half (~11) of the members with sub ~1,000 mb and ~4 Hs, all of which hit either the east coast of FL or the US Gulf coast. These numbers are way higher than the earlier GEFS runs.